As the presidential campaign gains
momentum, the Hispanic vote has become the subject of focused attention by
pollsters who are reporting substantially different levels of support for
candidates Trump and Biden.
A recent poll sponsored by the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation reported a rather
surprising result: 47% preferred Biden while 38% preferred Trump – a 9
percent difference. Based on this
outcome as well as comparison’s to Hillary Clinton’s Latino support in 2016,
various news sources are portraying Biden as losing ground with the Hispanic
electorate or running a campaign that is out of touch with the needs of this
important voter segment. The online poll
was conducted by YouGov using their proprietary methodology that has been
widely used in past years but not necessarily in Hispanic-targeted polling.
The results from the Texas Hispanic Policy
Foundation poll are especially surprising because they contradicted the
findings of various recent polls that included sub-samples of Latino voters
that generally found that Biden has enjoyed a double-digit lead over
Trump. [1]
Recent Polls Including
Latino Sub-Samples
(Percent)
|
Source |
Date |
Biden |
Trump |
Difference |
|
Quinnipac |
7/22/2020 |
53 |
29 |
24 |
|
CBS/YouGov |
7/12/2020 |
60 |
30 |
30 |
|
UT/Trib |
7/3/2020 |
46 |
39 |
7 |
|
Fox News |
6/25/2020 |
62 |
25 |
37 |
|
PPP/Progress Texas |
6/23/2020 |
64 |
27 |
37 |
|
PPP/TDP |
6/5/2020 |
66 |
23 |
43 |
|
Quinnipac |
6/2/2020 |
53 |
32 |
21 |
|
Source: Off the Kuff, 2020 |
||||
Curiously, this summary of recent polls by Kuff [2] omitted two other key polls conducted by survey organizations that have historically used the highest methodological standards when conducting polls of U.S. Latinos.[3] For example, recent polling by Latino Decisions in six battleground states – including Arizona, Florida, Texas, North Carolina and Pennsylvania -- confirmed a similar double-digit Biden advantage over Trump [4] while a recent poll of U.S. Latinos by Pew Research Center [5] also confirmed Biden’s double-digit lead over Trump.
Lastly, an ABC/Washington Post poll released
on Sept. 23, 2020 of likely voters shows that, among Latinos, Biden maintains a
double-digit lead over Trump (61% vs. 34%) and a smaller double-digit lead in
Florida (52% vs. 39%). [6]
Who is correct? The answer to this question has important
implications for the political messaging that is conveyed about Hispanic voters
between now and election day since it could influence voter turnout. Is Biden
really losing ground among Latino voters, or should we consider the poll
sponsored by the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation an anomaly?
Over the past 45 years, I have taught survey
research methods at four North Texas universities and developed an interest in
conducting post-mortems on the methodology employed in studies of multicultural
persons whose results were conflicting or controversial. Over the years, this
interest has included challenges to the Nielsen Hispanic television ratings,
measurement bias in college admissions tests, biased surveys in municipal
elections, estimates of COVID-19 mortality rates for Blacks and Hispanics, biased
crime reporting in urban areas, and site location methods that reinforce
redlining practices in communities of color. The goal of these post-mortems is to help the general
public understand which one of these conflicting or controversial studies is
more deserving of our confidence using criteria that I have discussed elsewhere
in some detail. [7]
In my opinion, I would place my confidence on the pollsters with a proven track
record in measuring Latino sentiments.
Let me explain my reasoning.
While I did not have sufficient information to
conduct a detailed post-mortem on the methodology utilized by YouGov in the
Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation study of Texas Latinos, there were some
concerns that were noted by Huff in his recent summary of Latino polls. [8] For example, the report
did not identify the Hispanic sample size and its margin of error, while the
survey results may have been distorted due to the use of outdated 2016 data to
weight the survey results. Huff also expressed concern about the obvious
discrepancy between the YouGov poll results and the results from the various
polls including Latino voters. While it has merit, it is my opinion that the
methodology used by YouGov lacks the historical track record in measuring
Hispanic voter sentiments that has been employed for decades by Latino
Decisions and Pew Research Center.
Perhaps the more compelling reason that raises
skepticism is the inference by political pundits that Hispanic voter support for
Trump is on the rise, a rather untenable position given his repeated attacks and
hate-filled speeches directed at U.S. Hispanics. Indeed, are we to believe that Hispanics suddenly
feel compelled to reward Trump with their votes despite these attacks? I don’t think so. Hispanic families have
suffered significantly under Trump’s presidency and are not likely to forget
these attacks as they decide to cast their vote this November.
Jason Villalba, President of the Texas
Hispanic Policy Foundation, concluded from his organization’s polling results that
“neither presidential candidate has yet to completely lock down the Texas
Hispanic vote.” [9] Based on the concerns raised about YouGov’s polling
methodology, I would say that his conclusion is pre-mature and lacks
confirmation by other trusted sources. Moreover, the report appears dismissive
of the substantial Latino support shown for Biden in the various other polls
conducted recently and makes little effort to reconcile the contradictory
findings. The Biden campaign has accumulated millions in their campaign fund
which may be utilized to solidify his standing among Hispanic voters,
especially in the battleground states. Indeed, there is room for optimism.
Going forward, I believe that we would be wise to place our confidence on the polling results provided by the more trusted sources in Latino polling with a proven track record such as Pew Research Center or Latino Decisions.
End Notes
[1] Kuffner, C. (2020, August). What is the
level of Latino support for Trump in Texas?
Off the Kuff. Accessed at http://www.offthekuff.com/wp/?p=96928
[2] Ibid, Kuffner, C.
[3] Rincon, E.T. (2020, August). The Culture of Research. The Writer’s Marq LLC.
[4]
Latino Decisions (July 2020).
Latino Voter Engagement and Mobilization in Six States, Accessed at: https://latinodecisions.com/polls-and-research/latino-voter-engagement-and-mobilization-in-six-states/
[5]
Doherty, C., Kiley, J., Asheer, N. (2020, June 30). Public’s Mood Turns
Grim; Trump Trails Biden on Most Personal Traits, Major Issues, Accessed
at: https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2020/06/30/publics-mood-turns-grim-trump-trails-biden-on-most-personal-traits-major-issues/
https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2020/06/30/publics-mood-turns-grim-trump-trails-biden-on-most-personal-traits-major-issues/
[6] Langer, G. (2020, Sept. 23). Trust on the economy bolsters Trump in
oh-so-close Florida and Arizona: POLL. ABC News, Accessed at: https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trust-economy-bolsters-trump-close-florida-arizona-poll/story?id=73167150
[7] Ibid, Rincon, E.T.
[8] Ibid, Kuffner, C.
[9] Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation (2020,
August 17). Texas Hispanics Prefer Biden: Trump Leads Overall in State. THPC
website, Accessed at https://www.txhpf.org/2020/08/17/texas-hispanics-prefer-biden-trump-leads-overall-in-state/
