Innovative Crime-Fighting Tool: Just Hide the Crime Data

 

It sounds incredible.  In their effort to protect the safety of crime victims and police officers,  the Dallas Police Department recently initiated a policy to block public access to crime data – a decision that was approved by Chief of Police Eddie Garcia and under review by the Dallas City Council. [1] It is difficult to understand how this decision helps to build public confidence in policing at a time when trust in law enforcement has been in serious decline.  Indeed, who benefits by this lack of transparency and accountability?  Chief Garcia explains that Dallas is following a similar practice as other U.S. cities in redacting crime data; however, some of these cities face pending lawsuits for blocking public access to crime data.  In Texas, the Texas Public Information Act requires that basic information about an arrested person, arrest or crime may not be withheld from the public. 

The Dallas access policy has angered many stakeholders that rely on easy access to crime data, especially some news organizations that are consulting attorneys to evaluate the legality of the policy. The concern by journalists was underscored in a recent statement by Dallas Morning News Executive Director Katrice Hardy:

“Our role as a news organization is to seek information to help our community stay informed.  The public has a right to know and understand how safe their community is,” Hardy said “This change limits access to critical information that keeps us informed about the welfare of our community.  Where crimes occur and who is impacted is basic information.  This is the opposite of transparency and has far-reaching implications.” [2]

Common sense tells us that public access to crime data is essential for many reasons.  For example, how would criminologists develop models of crime prevention without access to crime data?  How would crime fighting tools and policing resources be allocated without the guidance of crime data?  Indeed, knowing the types of crimes that are committed, the victims of crime and the locations where crimes are committed forms the very foundation for crime prevention programs. 

Faced with increased scrutiny by the public and legislators, the law enforcement community has increasingly opted to hide, delay or distort crime data.  For example, many police departments throughout the U.S. have been under-reporting hate crimes [3] as perhaps one way to protect the image of their city.  On a voluntary basis, police departments are expected to submit crime reports to the Federal Bureau of Investigation which are made accessible to the public on the Uniform Crime Reports web site; unfortunately, many police departments do not submit crime data to the FBI portal. [4]  By blocking access to crime data, researchers and the public who want to fact check news reports about crime trends in their communities will be unable to do so.  These practices undermine public safety by preventing residents from monitoring crime activity and trends in their communities.

When crime data is distorted or falsified, it also does great harm to the economic development of a community. Retailers, for example, often avoid doing business in predominantly Black or Latino communities due to reports or perceptions of high crime rates. To challenge this practice, a team of investigators recently conducted a study of food deserts in a predominantly Black community in Dallas, Texas [5] and analyzed police department crime files to fact check perceptions of high crime rates frequently reported by the media. Using geospatial analysis, the research team found that crime patterns were not much higher in the food desert communities when compared to the non-food desert communities, and that several food deserts showed promising economic potential for a mainstream supermarket.  It was particularly disturbing, however, to find that a team of academic researchers had reported inflated crimes rates in this community [6] without presenting verifiable evidence.  Without access to original crime data from the Dallas Police Department, however, this type of fact checking would not have been possible.

News organizations should be commended for taking the bold step to legally challenge these policies. But news organizations will need more support to reinforce their advocacy from a broad spectrum of stakeholders who depend on the timely and accurate release of crime data, including research organizations, non-profits focused on crime prevention, chambers of commerce, and the general public.

  

Reference Notes

---

[1] Smith, K. (2021, November). Dallas deletes information about crime from public view, plans more redactions and delays. Dallas Morning News, Accessed at:

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/crime/2021/11/08/dallas-deletes-information-about-crime-from-public-view-plans-more-redactions-and-delays/ 

[2] Ibid.

[3] Pezzella, F.S, Fetzer, M.D. and Keller, T. (2019, January). The dark figure of hate crime under-reporting. American Behavioral Scientist. Accessed at: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0002764218823844?journalCode=absb

[4] Uniform Crime Reports.  Accessed at: https://www.fbi.gov/services/cjis/ucr

[5] Rincon, E.T. and Tiwari, C. (2020 March). Demand metric for supermarket site selection: A case study. Papers in Applied Geography.  https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/23754931.2020.1712555

[6] Crowe, J., C. Lacy, and Y. Columbus (2019). Barriers to food security and community stress in an urban food desert. Urban Science 2 (2):46

Haitian immigrants at the Texas border deserve better treatment

 

Such is the vision inscribed at the Statue of Liberty that for generations has represented America’s ideal for welcoming previous waves of immigrants to our nation.   The thousands of Haitian immigrants that recently arrived at the southern U.S. border, however, were met with border patrols on horseback using lariats to control the crowds of immigrants --- not exactly the welcoming committee that would ordinarily alleviate the pain and hunger of traumatized victims.

President Biden deserves some of the blame for this surge for publicly announcing that his administration would promote more humane immigration policies. However, immigration from Mexico has declined dramatically in recent years despite Biden’s promotion of more humane immigration policies  – an outcome that reflects how the flow of immigration can be controlled when countries collaborate to achieve mutual goals.

President Biden, however, does not deserve all of the blame for the surge of Haitian immigrants. What energized the surge of Haitians was a devastating earthquake, the assassination of the country’s president, the failed Haitian economy, and the proliferation of crime --- clearly events beyond Biden’s control.  Moreover, history tells us that President Biden is not alone in encouraging more humane immigration policies. Indeed, numerous past presidents have issued executive orders to protect the status of various immigrants from different countries. [i]

While our political leaders decide on the ultimate disposition of Haitian immigrants, we should all be alarmed at the treatment that these immigrants have received at the Texas border.  Rather than comfort these immigrants who have experienced considerable trauma in their home countries and their travel to our border,  we instead decide to return them as quickly as possible to their home countries where their lives will remain in danger from crime and food deprivation.  On the other hand, the U.S. does have some choices to consider.

Our country is a nation of immigrants whose economic and intellectual growth has been fueled by the presence of immigrants.  As we ponder the decision to deport Haitian immigrants to their home countries, perhaps we need a brief reminder of the many ways in which immigrants have benefited our country:

·        Immigrants have often met the demand for labor shortages in such industries as food, hospitality, construction, and healthcare.  As a result of the pandemic and restrictive immigration policies, our nation is in dire need of more employees. Studies have shown that immigration provides a younger workforce, the entrepreneurial workers, and the skilled employees needed for essential industries such as healthcare, construction, agriculture, and food processing. [ii]

·        Non-citizens have historically served an important mission in defense of the U.S.  According to the Department of Defense, non-citizen recruits are likely to possess language and cultural skills that are of strategic importance to military operations outside of the U.S.  Between 2016 to 2020, there were 29, 970 non-citizens that were approved for naturalization in the U.S. military. [iii]  The top five countries represented by non-citizens in the military included Philippines, Mexico, China, South Korea and Jamaica.

·        The Social Security trust fund has been kept solvent in part from the substantial contributions made by unauthorized immigrant workers. Undocumented immigrants contributed $13 billion into the Social Security funds in 2016. While they make contributions, undocumented immigrants are not eligible to receive social security benefits. [iv]

·        Immigrants have contributed substantially to scientific innovation in the U.S.:    In the United States since 1976, citizens of foreign countries have filed 25 percent to 30 percent of patents. Indeed, immigrants file patents at double the rate of native-born Americans because they are more likely to hold science and engineering degrees. [v]

Given the many contributions that immigrants have made to the U.S. and the current labor shortages across many industries, perhaps we should pause to remember the virtues inscribed in the Statue of Liberty and offer the Haitian immigrants the same opportunity that previous waves of immigrants have experienced upon arrival to our nation.  Indeed, if the situation were reversed and U.S. residents were forced to seek humanitarian assistance from our global neighbors, would we want to be greeted by troopers on horseback using a lariat upon our arrival?  Probably not.

Reference Notes

---

[i] Desilver, D. (2014, November 21).  Executive actions on immigration have long history, Pew Research Center, Accessed at: https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/11/21/executive-actions-on-immigration-have-long-history/

[ii] The Labor Law Review. (2021, August 26).  Immigration and labor shortages. Accessed at:   https://www.natlawreview.com/article/immigration-and-labor-shortages

[iii]   U.S. Citizenship and Naturalization Services. Military Naturalization Statistics. Accessed on 9-24-21 at: https://www.uscis.gov/military/military-naturalization-statistics

[iv]  New American Economy.  Undocumented immigrants.  Accessed on 9-24-21 at:   https://www.newamericaneconomy.org/issues/undocumented-immigrants/#economic-contributors,-not-criminals

[v] Nowrasteh, A. (2020, May 14).  Don’t Ban H-1B Workers: They Are Worth Their Weight in Innovation, CATO Institute, Accessed at: https://www.cato.org/blog/dont-ban-h-1b-workers-they-are-worth-their-weight-patents  

Unsatisfactory Audience Ratings of Minorities a Factor in Loss of Nielsen’s Accreditation Status

 

Two recent events – seemly unrelated -- should give survey practitioners cause for concern when conducting studies of multicultural audiences.   First, two recent articles in Advertising Age announced that Nielsen had lost its accreditation from the Media Ratings Council – big news since Nielsen ratings have been the gold standard in television ratings for many decades.[1]    Part of the reason for the loss of their accreditation, according to the Advertising Age article, is the dissatisfaction of industry subscribers with the ratings of minority audiences. [2]  Although little detail was provided about Nielsen’s minority audience ratings, it is common knowledge that concerns about the ratings of minority audiences have been documented in past years.  Indeed, one study of Latino television audiences funded by ABC and CBS television networks challenged the television ratings of The George Lopez Show and found that Latino audiences were significantly under-estimated due to greater weight being placed on the television ratings for Latino immigrants – not the primary audience for The George Lopez Show. [3]

The second event is a recently published industry report by an American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) Task Force that studied the transition of telephone surveys to self-administered and mixed-mode studies.[4] AAPOR is a global organization whose membership includes public opinion and survey professionals from the private, public and academic sectors. Importantly, AAPOR provides research and leadership on issues and trends that influence the quality of measuring public opinion. The task force report was intended to guide the research industry during this transition by reviewing the most recent research on mixed-mode studies and offering recommendations for survey practice. While the report is an excellent review of the relevant research, it was incomplete in one important way: it was race neutral.  That is, it failed to review important research on mixed mode studies that documented key race-ethnic differences. [5]  The modest discussion of language factors also overlooked the important work by the Census Bureau and other investigators. [6]  Furthermore, this writer presented relevant research on race-ethnicity and language factors in mixed mode studies to the AAPOR virtual conference on June 11, 2020. [7]  The exclusive focus of the task force on studies that had transitioned to self-administered and mixed-mode surveys may have shifted attention away from mixed-mode studies that analyzed factors related to race-ethnicity and language. The omission of key race and language research on mixed modes was unfortunate but could still be addressed by AAPOR by supplementing the task force report.

The review of incentive options by the task force report was very informative and underscored the advantages of pre-paid and promised incentives for increasing response rates in mixed mode studies.[8]  However, the review of incentive studies did not offer any guidance on the effectiveness of incentive options for improving the response rates of diverse race-ethnic groups – clearly a topic that is in dire need of attention by the research industry.  The relative absence of research evaluating the effectiveness of incentives for diverse race-ethnic groups points to a vacuum of knowledge that may require attention by AAPOR.  

These two events suggest that Nielsen may not be the only research organization that needs help with improving the recruitment and measurement of multicultural audiences. Meaningful changes will not take place simply with declarations about the need for racial equity and diversity. Academic institutions are training the next generation of research practitioners and need to step up to the plate by introducing research courses or content that focuses on the common sources of bias in studies of multicultural communities.  AAPOR could provide grants or obtain sponsorships for research that documents the various factors that impact the response rates or engagement of multicultural persons in mixed-mode research. And while important research on mixed mode studies has been conducted in countries outside of the U.S., a critical need exists for a focus on domestic audiences like African Americans, Latinos, Asians and Native Americans whose life experiences and environments differ significantly from residents of foreign countries. 

What is the recommended timeline to implement these changes? Well, just consider the fact that the multicultural population in the U.S. numbered 144.3 million in 2020.[9]  One can only wonder why it has taken so long for the research industry to implement these changes.      

Reference Notes

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[1] Neff, J. (2021 Sept. 01).  Nielsen TV ratings accreditation suspended by MRC. AdAge.com, Accessed at:   https://adage.com/article/media/nielsen-tv-ratings-accreditation-suspended-mrc/2362556

[2] Neff, J. (2021 Sept. 9).  Nielsen CEO predicts TV ratings accreditation restoration ‘in months’ – but see bigger issues. AgeAge.com  Accessed at:  https://adage.com/article/media/nielsen-ceo-predicts-tv-ratings-accreditation-restoration-months/2363731

[3] Rincón & Associates (2004, February 1).  Latino Television Study.  National Latino Media Coalition, Accessed at:  https://www.rinconassoc.com/category/publications

[4] Olson, K. et al. Transitions from telephone surveys to self-administered and mixed-mode surveys:  AAPOR Task Force Report. Journal of Survey Statistics and Methodology, Vol. 9, Number 3, June 2021.

[5] Bureau of the Census (2020 Oct. 27). People and households represented in each American Community Survey data collection mode. Accessed at https://www.census.gov/library/visualizations/interactive/acs-collection.html#   

[6] Rincón, E.T.   The Culture of Research.  Publisher: Writer’s Marq LLC, 2020.

[7] Rincón, E. T.  Mixed-mode studies:  The need to consider race-ethnicity and language factors.  Presentation to the American Association for Public Opinion Research: A Virtual Meeting Place, June 11-12, 2020.

[8] Biemer, P.P., Murphy, S., Zimmer, C., Berry, G, Deng, and K. Lewis. (2018). Using bonus monetary incentives to encourage web response in mixed-mode household surveys. Journal of Survey Statistics and Methodology, 6, 240–261.

[9] Census Bureau (2021 August 12). 2020 Census statistics highlight local population changes and nation’s racial and ethnic diversity,  Release Number CB21-CN.55. Accessed at: https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2021/population-changes-nations-diversity.html

Toyota Withdraws GOP Donations for Jan. 6 Riot Support

In the world of politics – money talks. The headlines across national and local news sources announced some rather bad news for Republic lawmakers who refused to certify the election of President Joe Biden: donations by the Toyota PAC will come to a stop.

This was a stunning announcement for two important reasons. First, it signaled that large corporations like Toyota cannot afford to sit on the sidelines on the Jan. 6 riot event and continue to make donations to these rogue Republican lawmakers. Secondly, the appearance that the behavior of these rogue legislators was endorsed by Toyota could potentially threaten the company’s competitive position in the automotive industry.  Why should this matter to large corporations like Toyota?  

Many large corporations have invested significant advertising dollars to capture the consumer dollars of U.S. multicultural consumers, such as African Americans, Latinos and Asians.  Indeed, HIS Markit recently reported that 29 percent of new vehicles registered in 2020 were multicultural – translating to millions in vehicle sales. In addition, multicultural consumer spending is significant for brands in many industries other than automotive. 

As illustrated by the chart below, the aggregate household income – a crude measure of buying power – was $885 billion for African Americans, $1.1 trillion for Latinos and $683 billion for Asians.  Thus, the total buying power for these multicultural segments was $2.6 trillion in 2019.[1]  It is hard to imagine that this buying power would not matter to an organization whose profitability depends on the multicultural consumer spending.

While several large corporations expressed initial interest in withholding donations to the GOP following the Jan. 6 riot, few had actually followed up on that commitment. [2]   A report released by the progressive watchdog group Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington that identified Toyota as the top donor to election objectors in the months following the insurrection at the U.S. Capitol. [3]  Dallas-based AT&T and Austin-based Dell also continued their donations to these GOP lawmakers.  A little nudging from the Boycott Toyota campaign initiated by The Lincoln Project may have provided the needed impetus for Toyota to make their recent announcement.

Although boycotts, either real or threatened, may not be the preferred way of negotiating business and political relationships, it is likely to gain momentum as the stakes continue to rise by aggressive GOP efforts to restrict the voting rights of communities of color. While GOP operatives are making significant strides with legislation to restrict voting rights, they are less prepared to interfere with a well-coordinated campaign to boycott companies that underwrite the political campaigns of Republican lawmakers who continue to undermine our democracy.  The growing sophistication and penetration of social media is also likely to facilitate the economic impact of a boycott should it occur.

Whether they realize it or not, multicultural groups in the U.S. have tremendous economic clout to change the political behavior of corporations whose brands have benefited significantly from their consumer spending. The decision to launch boycotts against corporations that support controversial GOP lawmakers will be easier once corporate donation practices are publicly disclosed as The Lincoln Project did to justify their boycott campaign against Toyota.  However, multicultural organizations may be hesitant to support a boycott against a corporate entity that is donating funds to these controversial GOP lawmakers while also contributing funds to community programs that support multicultural organizations – a delicate decision indeed.

It is also worth mentioning that GOP lawmakers often pursue agendas that are counterintuitive.  For example, a pro-life legislative strategy that challenges abortion rights seems contradictory to support for gun rights legislation that contributes to the rise in mass homicides.  Similarly, one can also question the logic of suppressing voting rights among people of color while also promoting low vaccination rates in predominantly Republican communities – how does this tactic promote election victories if many of the unvaccinated Republican voters will not live long enough to cast a vote in the next election? 

The reader should be advised that I am not advocating for boycotts of corporate brands that support these controversial Republican lawmakers, but merely underscoring the potential vulnerability of corporations to a well-coordinated boycott that levels the playing field in the battle for voting rights.

 

Reference Notes

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[1] American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates, Tables B19025, Aggregate household income for Blacks, Latino and Asian Households.  Accessed at https://data.census.gov/cedsci/

[2] DeFurio, D. (2021 July 8).  Toyota says it will stop donating to politicians who opposed certification of Biden’s election win. Dallas Morning News.   Accessed at:  https://www.dallasnews.com/business/local-companies/2021/07/08/toyota-says-it-will-stop-donating-to-politicians-who-opposed-election-certification/

[3] CREW (2021, June 23).  Accessed at:  https://www.citizensforethics.org/reports-investigations/crew-reports/this-sedition-is-brought-to-you-by/

H-E-B: South Dallas Overlooked Again by New Supermarket Introductions

 

Yes, we should all celebrate the arrival of two new H-E-B supermarkets in North Texas – one in Frisco and a second one in Plano – both suburban communities that have been in the national spotlight due to significant population growth.[1] [2] The H-E-B brand has proven successful in markets throughout Texas and existing competitors have reason to worry about their diminishing market shares once the two stores – both 110,000 square feet -- open in the Fall of 2022.

One wonders, however, why H-E-B chose to open two new stores in communities that already included at least 6-7 other supermarkets while overlooking other communities that continue to have fewer or no supermarket choices.  To obtain some insight on this issue, I retrieved relevant demographic and economic information [3] to compare the opportunities in the two locations chosen by H-E-B with two other zip codes in South Dallas that remain under-served.  Following is the resulting table that profiles these four communities.

The two zip codes in South Dallas – 75215 and 75216 – were chosen as comparison points because interest has been shown by community advocates to establish the groundwork for a mainstream supermarket in these two communities.  In zip code 75215, the Cornerstone Community Market has received financial support to open this Spring, while efforts to introduce a store in zip code 75216 are continuing.  Interestingly, the statistical information presented in this table suggests that the two South Dallas communities should have caught the attention of H-E-B as potential sites for their supermarket brand. 

Let’s study this table to understand why this makes sense.

A significant income gap was clearly observable. Median household income is perhaps the most frequently used metric in retail to measure disparities in economic standing.  Clearly, the sites chosen by H-E-B revealed significantly higher median household incomes ($112,930 and $117,707) than the ones in South Dallas ($30,865 and $27,288). Similarly, aggregate household income (that is, the sum of all income earned by employed persons in a household) was distinctly greater for the H-E-B sites ($3.1 and $5.8 billion) compared to the South Dallas sites ($314 million and $724 million). Although SNAP benefits are not considered income, they nonetheless supplement a household’s ability to pay for food. Since the South Dallas sites had substantially more households receiving SNAP benefits (34.5% and 31.2%) than Plano (0.1%) or Frisco (2.9%), substantially greater SNAP benefits were observed for the South Dallas sites ($8.5 million and $20.9 million) compared to Plano ($614,484) and Frisco ($3.9 million).    

Demographically, the communities differed significantly. Perhaps it is only coincidence that the two sites chosen by H-E-B were predominantly non-Hispanic white (66.2% and 60.6%) and secondarily non-Hispanic Asians (16.4% and 16.2%). By contrast, zip code 75215 in South Dallas was predominantly Black (68.1%) while zip code 75216 included mostly Blacks (54.9%) and Hispanic (21.0%).  About two thirds of the households in the Plano and Frisco zip codes were homeowners (63.7% and 67.0%); by contrast, most of the residents in zip code 75215 were renters (67.5%) while zip code 75216 was more evenly split between homeowners (49.0%) and renters (51.0%).

Despite these wide disparities, the potential demand for a mainstream supermarket was observed in each of these  communities. Using our own formula for estimating food-at-home expenditures (FHE), we estimated annual FHE for the   H-E-B sites as $136 million for Plano and $295 million for Frisco, while the FHE for zip code 75215 in South Dallas was $46.6 million and $132.8 million for zip code 75216.  Importantly, South Dallas zip code 75216 shared some similarities with zip code 75093 in Plano -- FHE, total population and total households – which could have made zip code 75216 a suitable substitute for zip code 75093.   

Adjusting for the existing number of supermarkets in each zip code, however, differences in the potential demand for a supermarket become more uniform across these four communities.  Zip code 75093 in Plano, for example, already includes SIX supermarkets that currently share the estimated annual food-at-home expenditures of $136.6 million. Assuming that the six stores have equal shares, their individual shares would be approximately $22.8 million. Of course, this does not include the new H-E-B store which will likely diminish this share even further.  Similarly, the share for the seven stores in zip code 75034 in Frisco would be approximately $42.2 million assuming equal shares.  With no supermarkets currently operating in zip code 75215, however, the potential share for one supermarket would be $46.6 million, while the share for zip code 75216 would be $132.8 million with one existing supermarkets. Of course, with H-E-B’s entrance into the Plano and Frisco communities, the potential shares are expected to change dramatically and perhaps lead to some store closures as well. Thus, competition or the lack of competition can make a big difference in the performance of a supermarket.

Concluding Thoughts:  A company like H-E-B with a track record of successful supermarket performance in Texas is probably quite comfortable with their site selection strategy and may not see a need to change it.  It is unfortunate, however, that such a successful supermarket brand has opted to overlook the opportunity to change the historic supermarket redlining practice in South Dallas, which has left this community without healthy and nutritious food choices for decades.   

H-E-B’s decision to overlook the South Dallas community is especially difficult to justify given the documented economic assets in this community. Collectively, the two zip codes in South Dallas included 71,145 residents who spent an estimated $180 million annually for food-at-home.  Only two supermarkets serve these two communities, which means that their food dollars are being spent on dollar and convenience stores which reinforces the practice of unhealthy eating. In addition, much of their food dollars are spent at supermarkets outside of these communities --- referred to as “retail leakage” – which contributes little to the economic vitality of their own communities.  H-E-B executives --- are you listening? 

An Alternative Strategy:  Community groups have grown tired of the redlining practices by supermarkets and the absence of any decisive action by public officials to change this trend.  Consequently, some community groups are developing their own solutions along with the support of private industry and foundations that share their vision for healthier food choices. For example, Cornerstone Baptist Church in South Dallas was successful in obtaining start-up funding by The Real Estate Council, City Square, St. Phillips School and Community Center, and Cornerstone Baptist Church – clear evidence that the store concept has merit in the eyes of these community stakeholders.[4]  

Arlington Woods, Indianapolis is a food desert with a predominantly Black community of 100,000 residents without a full-size grocery store within 4-mile radius. A medical device manufacturer – COOK Medical – is building a plant in this community and adding a grocery store based on feedback from community residents.[5]  Importantly, two local Black convenience store owners were hired to operate the new grocery store and provided training on store operations as well.  Future plans call for these two young men to assume store ownership as well.

In my opinion, these are two excellent approaches to the persistent practice of supermarket redlining.  Community groups can achieve their goal of establishing better food options through creative partnerships with the private sector, foundations and other community groups that share their vision. Eventually, supermarket brands will recognize that their highly selective site selection strategies also reinforce redlining practices – whether intentional or not – and cannot be justified with the available evidence.  Indeed, our recent research [6] using an innovative urban site selection model revealed that (a)  perceptions of higher crime rates were not supported by actual analysis of crime data, (b) traditional metrics used in site selection formulas, like household median income, have little relationship to the dollars spent annually on food-at-home, (c) SNAP benefits are a significant component of food spending, and (d) various food deserts show sufficient economic assets to support the annual sales of a mainstream supermarket.

Access to healthy food choices is a right, not a privilege that prioritizes communities with a more attractive economic profile. Food providers, especially large supermarket brands, should re-evaluate their site location strategies and place more weight on the inclusion of under-served communities that show promising economic potential.  H-E-B has an impressive record of community support in areas related to disaster relief, diversity, education, celebrating first responders and hunger relief (i.g., food banks and holiday dinners). [7] However, it is time for H-E-B and supermarkets in general to take the bold step of also reducing the number of food deserts in under-served communities. While the various areas of community support are valued, they cannot fulfill the role of a full-service supermarket. 

 Reference Notes

[1] Halkias, M. (2021, June 3).  H-E-B is underway on its Frisco and Plano stores, the popular grocer’s first in North Texas. Dallas Morning News, Accessed at:  https://www.dallasnews.com/business/retail/2021/06/03/h-e-b-starts-construction-on-its-frisco-store/#

[2] Department of Agriculture Environmental Food Atlas, Accessed at: https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/food-environment-atlas/

[3] American Community Survey 2019 5-Year Estimates, Accessed at https://data.census.gov/cedsci/

[4] Dand, S. (2021, May 6).  Cornerstone Baptist Church is launching a grocery store to address food insecurity in South Dallas.  Cornerstone, Dallas Morning News,  Accessed at: https://www.dallasnews.com/news/2021/05/06/cornerstone-baptist-church-is-launching-a-grocery-store-to-address-food-insecurity-in-south-dallas/#:~:text=Now%2C%20in%20an%20effort%20to,set%20to%20open%20this%20spring.

[5]  Yousry, F. (2021 May 22).  This neighborhood badly needs a grocery store. A medical device maker will build one. National Public Radio,  Accessed at: https://www.npr.org/2021/05/22/998646579/medical-device-maker-building-plant-in-a-food-desert-adds-grocery-store-to-its-l

[6] Rincon, E. T. and Tiwari, C. (2020 March 23). Demand metric for supermarket site selection: A Case Study.  Papers in Applied Geography, Accessed at: https://doi.org/10.1080/23754931.2020.1712555

[7] H-E-B: Giving back to our communities. Accessed at https://www.heb.com/static-page/Community-Involvement

News Coverage of Food Insecurity in South Dallas Falls Short

Recent local news coverage about food deserts and community efforts to address food insecurity in areas like South Dallas have been informative, but to audiences that are more familiar with the topic of food insecurity, news coverage has been incomplete. As the following map illustrates, food deserts are disproportionately distributed in the southern and northwest areas of Dallas – a pattern that has changed minimally in past decades.  

Two recent stories in the Dallas Morning News provide a good example.  One story [i] covered local efforts to address the food insecurity problem by local community groups who would like to emulate the experience of a store in Waco, called Jubilee, that has served lower-income residents in an identified food desert.  The story provided valuable insights about the challenges faced by non-profits in creating a food store to serve their residents and the challenge of achieving profitability. 

The second story [ii] discussed a new grocery store – Southpoint Community Market -- founded by Cornerstone Baptist Church in South Dallas that is scheduled to open this summer on Martin Luther King Blvd.  The proposed store has a small footprint – 800 sq. ft. – and accompanied by a community kitchen and other sources of support provided by the church. The store received start-up funding by The Real Estate Council, City Square, St. Phillips School and Community Center, and Cornerstone Baptist Church – clear evidence that the store concept has merit in the eyes of these community stakeholders.

Unfortunately, this second story presented a rather grim picture of Southpoint’s likely success by Dr. Michael Fox, SMU Chair of the Marketing Department, who further described the grocery store concept as a “boutique” and “convenience” store that would require considerably more time than projected by the City of Dallas to achieve profitability. Despite this grim evaluation, Pastor Simmons of the Cornerstone Baptist Church remained optimistic that the store would eventually achieve profitability with continued support from its sponsors and increasing consumer demand. Interestingly, Dr. Fox was highly critical of the financial projections presented to the Dallas City Council, noting its many inaccuracies, but had few words about the business plan that had been prepared for store sponsors by the SMU Cox School of Business.

In a recent journal publication that I co-authored in Papers in Applied Geography, [iii] we developed an urban site selection model that identifies food deserts with adequate economic potential to sustain a mainstream supermarket of different sizes. The model is effective in identifying promising food deserts since it relies more on relevant economic indicators rather than the typical household income and social indicators employed by traditional site selection models.  What we discovered using our urban site selection model may surprise the skeptics.

Since the new Southpoint Community Market is located in zip code 75215 (denoted by an "S" on the map), we identified nine census tracts that were included in this zip code in order to describe the store’s potential trade area and customer profile– a step that was not evaluated in the business plan prepared by the SMU Cox School of Business.  We produced the two tables that follow below using the American Community Survey 2019 5-Year Estimates[iv] and SNAP payments reported by Texas Health & Human Services Commission.[v] We derived one variable – Annual Food-at-Home Expenditures – which incorporated the number of people living in a household and the average amount of weekly expenditures for food-at-home estimated in surveys sponsored by the Food Marketing Institute.[vi]   

In reviewing Table 1 Economic Profile, it is readily apparent that households in the 75215 zip code spent an estimated $71 million annually for food-at-home.  These annual expenditures were made possible by an aggregate household income of $606 million earned by all employed persons in 2019 and $10 million in SNAP payments received by qualified residents in 2021.  

Table 2 Demographic Profile shows that the race-ethnic representation in this zip code was predominantly Black (median = 60.2%), followed by non-Hispanic whites (median = 24.4%) and Hispanics (median = 12.9%).  However, the race-ethnic distribution and economic indicators varied considerably by census tract.

Why does this matter?  Because it provides decision makers an assessment of the potential market that is available to Southpoint Community Market.  The specific trade area for Southpoint was not identified in the business plan prepared by SMU, a critical first step for defining the potential sales and competition in a trade area. Moreover, the business plan did not include a survey of community residents that would provide a more specific estimate of demand for the store concept.

According to Dr. Fox with SMU, the City’s assessment of Southpoint’s profitability  “is based on flawed calculations” and that his back-of-the-envelope calculations indicated that Southpoint would need to sell about $80 a day per square foot of shelf space to make the city’s proposed profit margins. Perhaps his assessment is correct, especially given the store’s small size of 800 sq. ft. and its location. The City expected a profit of $34,000 a month by the store to justify reimbursing the investment made by The Real Estate Council.

Current information provided by the Food Marketing Institute reveals the following information about U.S. supermarkets in 2019 [vii] that might encourage a second opinion about Southpoint’s future success:

1.   The net profit after taxes was 1.0 percent.
2.   The weekly sales of U.S. supermarkets averaged $15.15 per square foot

Thus, assuming ideal market conditions for a 800 sq. ft. store, SouthPoint Community Market could achieve approximately $52,520 in monthly sales or $630,240 in annual sales.  These potential sales could be accelerated by expanding the size and inventory of the store and reaching more customers in its defined trade area. Assuming this sales scenario, a profit margin of 1.0 percent may be realistic, especially if consumer demand could be accurately documented.

In summary, the economic potential of urban communities like South Dallas is often overlooked or obscured by the absence of relevant economic data.  Our urban site selection model incorporates more relevant information and has further challenged perceptions of elevated crime rates by analyzing actual crime statistics from police department files. It is curious indeed that a market demand study for a supermarket in South Dallas has yet to be conducted despite several unsuccessful attempts by the City of Dallas to address food insecurity. 

Given the common practice of supermarket redlining that has been evident in North Texas for several decades, it does not seem unreasonable to expect news reporters and experts to provide a more balanced analysis of supermarket potential in urban areas like South Dallas, especially when community advocates and sponsors are struggling to remediate the negative consequences of supermarket redlining practices.    

 

Reference Notes

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[i] Dand, S. (2021 May 10).  Waco store fills void, with help.  Accessed at https://edition.pagesuite.com

[ii] Dand, S. (2021 May 6). Cornerstone Baptist Church is launching a grocery store to address food insecurity in South Dallas. Accessed at https://www.dallasnews.com/news/2021/05/06/cornerstone-baptist-church-is-launching-a-grocery-store-to-address-food-insecurity-in-south-dallas/

[iii] Rincon, E.T. and Tiwari, C. (2020 March 23).  Demand metric for supermarket site selection: A case study. Papers in Applied Geography, Accessed at https://doi.org/10.1080/23754931.2020.1712555

[iv] American Community Survey 2019 5-Year Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau. Accessed at https://data.census.gov/cedsci/

[v] Texas Health and Human Services (2021 April).  Month End SNAP Food Benefits Cases and Eligible Individuals by County - March 2021 Benefit Month. Accessed at https://hhs.texas.gov/about-hhs/records-statistics/data-statistics/supplemental-nutritional-assistance-program-snap-statistics

[vi] Food Marketing Institute (2021). Trended Weekly Household Grocery Expenses,  FMI U.S. Grocery Shopper Trends, 2021. Special table provided by FMI Research Director Steve Markenson.

[vii] Food Marketing Institute (2021) Supermarket Facts. Accessed at https://www.fmi.org/our-research/supermarket-facts