In a recent New York Times story,[i] writer Jennifer Medina
discusses the curious support of Donald Trump by Hispanic voters, estimated at 30
percent by recent polls. Who are these “Latino
Trumpers” and how do they justify their support for Trump given the numerous
racists comments made by Trump about Latinos and immigrants in addition to the
aversive policies targeted to Latinos?
In reviewing general polling results of Latino voters,
Medina first discusses some demographic differences among Latino voters. For example, there is a large gender gap
in preferences for the Biden vs. Trump: Hispanic
males (35%) are more likely to support Trump than Hispanic females (23%), while
Hispanic females (67%) are more likely to support Biden than Hispanic males
(59%).[ii] This gender gap is partially explained by the
higher tendency of Hispanic women to be college educated, while Hispanic men
tend be over-represented in jobs related to law enforcement, such as the
military, Border Patrol, and Immigration and Customs Enforcement. In addition, Trump reportedly shows more
support from “American born” Latinos who are under 45 years old, non-college
graduates, and evangelicals. In Florida, support is reportedly stronger among
Cubans and Venezuelans who oppose communism.
To better understand the psychological profile of Latino male
Trumpers, Medina analyzes the results of a research study of Mexican male
Trumpers that captured their perceptions of Donald Trump. Little information
was provided about the study methodology, so proceed with caution in generalizing
her observations to other Latinos. Nonetheless, the writer points to the
concept of “machismo” to describe Trump’s appeal to Hispanic male Trumpers – a
concept that is often used in reference to Hispanic males who are dominant,
over-bearing, and indifferent to the needs of others. This rationale for this allure
to the “macho” image projected by Trump is described by the following phrases
articulated by the Hispanic males who participated in this research study. To Hispanic male Trumpers, Donald Trump:
· Is forceful, wealthy and unapologetic
· Is a symbol of economic success
· Is confident of his own opinions
· Disdain for face masks is a sign of power
· Relies on his own research as a basis for denying medical guidance by experts
· Is committed to the military
In addition, Hispanic male Trumpers enjoy being the subject of curiosity for supporting Trump and willing to tolerate criticism for supporting Trump by friends and family members. Although the imagery associated with Joe Biden was minimal, these Trumpers described Biden as “weak” and deserving of the title “Basement Biden.” Thus, Hispanic male Trumpers appear to share the same beliefs and values as Donald Trump, and may not be deserving of attention by the Biden campaign.
Biden’s Campaign is Urged to Step it Up in
Texas
Medina’s analysis further underscores several observations
by industry experts that the Biden campaign has not invested enough financial
resources to engage Hispanics, especially in Texas, where the Biden vs. Trump
competition is close. In a recent news
article,[iii] for example, both Julian Castro and Beto O’Rourke
reinforced the message to the Biden campaign that they need to step up their
game in Texas during the remaining days before the election on November 3rd. According to our recent analysis of Latino
support for Biden in battleground states, [iv] about two-thirds of
Latino voters voiced support for Biden while only one-third supported Trump.
With less than 10 days until the election, a new poll by The Dallas Morning
News/UT-Tyler of Texas likely voters showed strong continuing support by Latino
for Biden (67%) while the support for Trump (20%) has declined --- which may be
one reason that among all Texas likely voters, support for Biden (46%) is now
slightly higher than Trump (44%). It is conceivable that a more aggressive
investment of the Biden campaign towards increasing Latino voter turnout could
prove to be a significant factor in turning the state blue.
Strategy Going Forward
Based on Medina’s recent review of the Latino voter
profile and my own past experience in conducting surveys of U.S. Latinos, it
seems that the Biden campaign needs to make some immediate changes in its Texas
Latino voter strategy in the remaining weeks of the election. Following are
some suggested ideas.
Delivery Vehicle for Campaign Messaging: First,
after months of criticism to step up his game, the Biden campaign reportedly released
a series of Spanish-language ads to engage Hispanics. However, a Spanish-language strategy is a
tactical mistake if one is trying to reach native-born Hispanics, especially in
Texas. Our past 45 years of experience
in analyzing the media habits of U.S. Hispanics confirms that a majority of
native-born Hispanics utilize English-language media for their news and
information, while Spanish-language media is more effective in capturing
immigrant audiences. Pew Research Center reports also confirm this trend. [v] So the delivery vehicle
really needs to change as follows: 75 percent focus on English-language media
and 25 percent on Spanish-language media.
Demographic Target: The most desirable demographic target for
Biden should be Hispanic women. Why? Because Biden already enjoys great standing
among Hispanic women, especially the college-educated, and they would be great
ambassadors for convincing other Hispanics who are undecided or independent to
support the Biden ticket. Moreover, Hispanic
women are more likely than Hispanic males to be college graduates, politically
active, and entrepreneurs. Hispanic
males who share similar attributes as these Hispanic women would also be
included as a target segment. However, since Latino male Trumpers share many of
the same values and attributes as Donald Trump, it may be a waste of resources
to change their fascination with Donald Trump at point in time.
Message Strategy: Hispanic women should be reminded about the programs and policies advocated by Joe Biden that have benefited Hispanics as well as proposed future programs, especially as it concerns COVID-19, food insecurity, jobs, education, childcare, healthcare, a women’s right to choose, and business development.
Although climate and environmental issues have not been reported as major concerns in recent polls of Hispanic voters, the most recent Biden vs. Trump debate focused on Biden’s statements about limiting fracking because “the oil industry pollutes, significantly.” Fracking is a technological innovation that has brought fortunes to the economies of the oil and gas industry, especially in states like Texas and Pennsylvania. When Biden stated that he would not eliminate fracking but transition over time to other types of cleaner and renewable energy, President Trump and GOP members charged that Biden was trying to “destroy the oil and gas industry,” “kill many jobs,” “Democrats are coming hard for Texas’ oil and gas industry,” and “he just killed paychecks earned by hardworking families in Texas.” The reality, however, is that the oil and gas industry had already lost 118,000 jobs during the pandemic as demand and prices for oil fell dramatically. [vi] According to an industry research firm, it would take more than 16 years to recover the energy jobs lost since February. [vii] As underscored by Joe Biden, renewable energy is the best solution for the future, has surged sharply with the downturn in the oil and gas market, creating numerous jobs, and providing a cleaner environment for families.
The fracking debate should be a top concern for Texas Hispanic voters. While it has provided jobs and a significant boost to the Texas economy, fracking comes at a heavy cost to the environment and the health of Hispanics and other poor families who live in close proximity to these fracking sites. The following map shows the distribution of the 415,354 oil and gas facilities in Texas as of 2017 (black points) and the distribution of the state’s schools and day care facilities (lighter points). [viii]
The web site authors define a threat radius as the area within ½ mile of active oil and gas wells, compressors and processors. Persons who live within a threat radius have cause for concern about potential health impacts from oil and gas pollution. An estimated 782,627 students live within a threat radius. This pollution includes dangerous chemicals that have been associated with various medical illnesses to residents living in close proximity to these sites, including the following:
· Congenital
heart defects
· Cancer
· Anemia
· Brain
damage
· Respiratory
tract infections
· Oral
clefts and neural tube defects
In Texas, the oil and gas facilities are concentrated in
highly populated Hispanic and lower income communities. In addition to a higher prevalence of these
medical illnesses, the fracking process utilizes large amounts of water that is
draining the water resources for many of these communities, some which are also
experiencing drought conditions.
The conclusion for messaging seems clear: Joe Biden should be honored, not criticized,
for taking the bold step to protect our environment and the health of our
residents from the toxic pollutions that are generated by fracking sites. Hispanic campaign messaging should include
information about the consequences of fracking to their families’ health and
environments – a message that may resonate more strongly with Hispanic women
but may also capture the attention of Hispanic males who are exposed to these
toxic work environments.
A Final Thought: The profile of Hispanic male Trumpers describes
a person that is fascinated with power and an indifference to factual
information about Trump’s achievements. As a long shot strategy, it may be
useful to include messaging for Hispanic male Trumpers to clarify the
following misconceptions that were previously voiced about Donald Trump:
· Trump is a successful
businessman.
If Trump is so successful, why is he over $1 billion in debt, and why has he filed
for bankruptcy several times in past years? [ix]
· By not using a mask,
Trump shows that he has power. Rather than symbolizing power, not using a
mask reveals ignorance of medical advice that is known to save lives.
Hispanics, in particular, are experiencing more COVID-19 illnesses and deaths
than other groups in the U.S. This is not power.
· Trump does his own
research to reach his own conclusions. Trump
has no medical training or knowledge and often ignores the scientific advice of
experts, especially on health issues. An example of his ignorance was his
advice for using Lysol disinfectant to treat the coronavirus.
· Trump respects the
military. On the contrary, Trump has been disrespectful
of war heroes like the late Sen. John McCain and called soldiers who died in European
war “suckers and losers.” He avoided military service due to a supposed bone
spur medical diagnosis arranged by his father. Trump often disparages our
military leaders but idolizes world dictators who have historically oppressed
their people.
· Trump shows confidence
in his opinions,
but his opinions are usually based on lies that contradict the scientific facts.
If science does not matter, do you also ignore the advice of doctors that
prescribe medications and perform surgeries --- both which are based on the results
of scientific research?
· Trump is not a racist. If Trump is not a
racist, why did his administration separate Hispanic children from their
families? There are now 545 Hispanic children in U.S. custody who were
separated by the Trump administration from their parents, and their parents
cannot be found.
In summary, a successful strategy to turn Texas blue
during this election may depend on the ability of the Biden campaign to accelerate
their targeting of Hispanic voters, especially women, with the right messaging using
English-language media. Let’s hope that Biden’s
campaign manager is listening.
[i]
Medina, J. (2020, October 14). The macho
appeal of Donald Trump. The New York
Times. Access at https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/14/us/politics/trump-macho-appeal.html
[ii]
Krogstad, J.M. and Lopez, M. H. (2020, October 20). Latino voters have growing confidence in
Biden on key issues, while confidence in Trump remains low. FACTTANK, Pew Research Center. Accessed at https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/10/16/latino-voters-have-growing-confidence-in-biden-on-key-issues-while-confidence-in-trump-remains-low/
[iii]
Gillman, T.J. (2020, October 22). Beto
O’Rourke and Julian Castro fume that Biden has neglected Texas, demand ‘crunch
time’ investment. Accessed at https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2020/10/22/beto-orourke-and-julian-castro-fume-that-biden-has-neglected-texas-demand-crunch-time-investment/
[iv]
Rincon, E.T. Polls provide conflicting views of Hispanic support for Biden vs. Trump. The Culture of Research Blog, Accessed at https://thecultureofresearch.blogspot.com/2020/09/polls-provide-conflicting-views-of.html
[v] Lopez, M.H. and Gonzalez-Barrera, A. (2013,
July 13). A growing share of Latinos get
their news in English. Pew Research Center. Accessed at: https://www.pewresearch.org/hispanic/2013/07/23/a-growing-share-of-latinos-get-their-news-in-english/
[vi]
Peacock, B. (2020, May 11). Renewable energy booming in Texas as oil and
gas struggles. The Texan. Accessed at https://thetexan.news/renewable-energy-booming-in-texas-as-oil-and-gas-struggles/#:~:text=EnergyIssuesRenewable%20Energy%20Booming%20in%20Texas%20as%20Oil%20and%20Gas%20Struggles&text=Solar%20energy%20also%20reached%20its,is%20down%20over%2010%20percent.
[vii]
Takahasi, P. (2020, August 21). U.S. oil and gas industry sheds 118,000 jobs
during pandemic. Houston Chronicle, accessed at https://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/energy/article/U-S-oil-and-gas-industry-sheds-118-000-jobs-15505020.php#:~:text=Texas%20had%20the%20largest%20number,19%20percent%20of%20its%20workforce.
[viii] Source: Oil and Gas Threat Map (2020,
October 24). Accessed at https://oilandgasthreatmap.com/threat-map/texas/
[ix]
Alexander, D. (2020, October 16). Donald
Trump Has At Least $1 Billion In Debt, More Than Twice The Amount He Suggested.
Forbes, https://www.forbes.com/sites/danalexander/2020/10/16/donald-trump-has-at-least-1-billion-in-debt-more-than-twice-the-amount-he-suggested/#632ff0f14330
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