Is polling and related media coverage artificially inflating Gov. Abbott’s ratings in the Texas gubernatorial race?

The polling industry and the public recognizes that polls are imperfect measures of political events and outcomes, and sometimes can be dead wrong.  The 2020 presidential election is a good recent example of the extent to which Donald Trump’s ratings were significantly under-estimated, although no consensus has emerged about the exact reasons for these polling inaccuracies.  The unwillingness of Republican voters to respond to polling was one factor that seemed to gain more acceptance in the polling industry.

Interestingly, polls surrounding statewide and municipal elections do not appear to capture the same level of scrutiny as national polls even though they are also susceptible to various sources of bias.  The race for governor in Texas is a good example of how media and polling activities can combine to artificially elevate the standing of a favored candidate -- i.e., Gov. Gregg Abbott.  Let’s first discuss some two potential sources of polling bias, then follow with a discussion of potential media bias surrounding this campaign.

Potential Polling Bias

The most recent poll was conducted in September 6-13, 2022 by The University of Texas at Tyler Political Science Department and co-sponsored by The Dallas Morning News. [i]  Methodological information about the poll is presented on this web site which shows that 1,268 interviews were completed with registered voters using a sample derived from two different sources: a panel used for on-line surveys and a telephone listing used for telephone interviews.  Both English and Spanish-language options were reportedly provided to the survey respondents.  In reviewing a survey tabulation provided on their web site, the following two findings were observed:

·         One question that asked respondents about their employment status during the last week prior to the survey showed that the proportion of retired White respondents (42%) was twice as high as Black (21%) and Latino (15%) respondents. Compared to other national polls like the General Social Survey, this proportion of White respondents is unusually high, and may artificially inflate the poll’s rating for Gov. Abbott whose support comes primarily from White voters.  Whether due to actual interviewing or weighting adjustments, why were retired White respondents given so much weight or presence in this poll?

·         Potential Sampling Bias: The selection of poll respondents from two differences sampling sources or frames points to a potential sampling bias. Despite the detailed methodological steps that described the manner that these two sources were combined into one total sample with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percent,   one needs to recall that panel respondents are not usually selected at random and are usually paid incentives to complete surveys on a periodic basis, while telephone survey respondents are usually selected at random and not paid an incentive to participate in a survey.  Also, online panel members are typically younger, more educated and have higher incomes than the general population, and often exclude people of color and immigrants – a profile that could also bias the poll ratings in favor of Gov. Abbott. [ii]  Demographically speaking, these two groups of respondents are apples and oranges. Given this information, it would be helpful to know the proportion of Black and Latino poll respondents who were selected from a panel or the telephone listing to verify this potential sampling bias and its influence on the poll ratings. 

Potential Media Bias

·         A second tab on the UT-Tyler web site asks respondents to identify their main source of news, and shows that Spanish-language news – like Telemundo and Univision -- were used by an extremely small proportion (2%) of the poll respondents.  In Texas, this is highly unusual given the number of eligible immigrant voters: 52 percent are Latino immigrants [iii]  that past research confirms frequently use Spanish-language news sources.   Even though the UT-Tyler poll methodology  explains that both English and Spanish-language options were provided in the poll, it would be helpful to know the actual unweighted number of Latino surveys that were completed in English and Spanish.  Why? Because pollsters often state that language options are provided in a survey, but that does not tell us the extent to which these options were actually chosen by the survey respondents. If Texas immigrant voter participation in the poll was inadvertently minimized due to poorly implemented language options, one would expect Beto O’Rourke’s ratings to be systematically lower since Texas immigrants tend to support Democratic candidates. Again, a potential unearned benefit for Gov. Abbott.  

·         The recent televised debate between Gov. Abbott and Beto O’Rourke also revealed both logistical and media bias that favored Gov. Gregg Abbott.  To begin, Gov. Abbott’s campaign deliberately defined the debate logistics in his favor by scheduling the debate on a Friday evening that is known to attract few audiences of potential voters and further required that no live audience was present in the auditorium during the debate.  Despite these limitations, an informative debate still took place and provided viewers an opportunity to understand these two candidates in more detail. It was clear, for example, that Beto O’Rourke performed well  by focusing on the repeated failures of Gov. Abbott over the past eight years of his administration – facts that were verifiable by external sources. By contrast, Gov. Abbott focused on Beto’s “flip-flopping” on issues like gun control and alleged statements by Beto (e.g. “Beto supports open borders,” “Beto supports de-funding the police”) that were not supported by any facts presented by Gov. Abbott. Interestingly, it was Gov. Abbott who actually took millions in funding from law enforcement agencies in Texas to support his failed border wall project.[iv]  The main outcome of the debate was Gov. Abbott’s evasiveness and unwillingness to explain (a) his lack of accountability for the Uvalde massacre; (b) why he did not taken decisive action over the past eight years to avoid the recent energy crisis that cost the lives of 700 Texas residents; [c] his lack of support for gun legislation that has resulted in numerous mass killings during his administration; and (d) his support for restrictive abortion laws. Thus, the debate was a significant learning opportunity for its viewers.

Media bias, however, was evident in the follow-up report in The Dallas Morning News by Gromer Jeffers [v] who was one of the panel members that presented questions during the debate. Jeffers concluded based on insights from other experts that the debate outcome was fairly inconsequential and not likely to change the minds of Texas voters unless Beto was able to muster strong voter turnout – which would have more significance on Election Day than “throwing jabs at a debate.”  While one cannot argue about the value of voter turnaround, it seems unwarranted, and perhaps a sort of media bias, to describe the recent debate as “jabs” thrown at a debate.  These “jabs” were very informative in distinguishing the two candidates:  Gov. Abbott as the incumbent who blames others for his failures over the past eight years vs. Beto O’Rourke who voices strong support for policies that will improve the quality of life for Texans.   

In conclusion, the Texas Poll results suggest that Beto O’Rourke continues to face an uphill battle in beating Gov. Abbott in this highly competitive race.  The media’s consistent coverage regarding the polling advantage that Gov. Abbott currently enjoys is clearly benefiting his campaign but also likely to discourage voter turnout by supporters of Beto O’Rourke. But history tells us that polling results are not infallible and sometimes undeserving of the confidence accorded them by media sources. While there is some reason to believe that the Texas Poll ratings for Gov. Abbott may be inflated, there does not appear to be much concern about obtaining an objective, independent critique of the methodology used.  Beto O’Rourke’s campaign has been consistently on-target in documenting the failures of the Abbott administration over the past eight years and is aggressively reaching out to various segments of potential Texas voters.  By contrast, Gov. Abbott’s well-funded campaign is driven by advertising messages that are false and designed to portray Beto O'Rourke as a governor who will wreck the Texas energy industry, worsen border security problems, and promote a socialist agenda.  If the recent Texas Poll ratings have been artificially inflating Gov. Abbott’s standing and Beto continues his successful strategy of relying on the facts and focusing on voter turnout, Texans may witness an unexpected surprise this November.   

It should be noted that these concerns for potential methodological biases in the Sept. 2022 Texas Poll were emailed to the poll director on Oct. 3, 2022 using the email posted on the UT-Tyler web site. No response has been received at this writing.

 

Reference Notes

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[i]  UT Tyler Political Science Department, Center for Opinion Research.  Accessed at: https://www.uttyler.edu/politicalscience/pollingcenter/ 

[ii] Rincon, E.T. (2020). The Culture of Research, Publisher: The Writer’s Marq.

[iii] Noe-Bustamente, L. and Budiman, A. (2020 March). Most of the 23 million immigrants eligible to vote in 2020 election live in just five states. Pew Research Center, Accessed at:  https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/03/03/most-of-the-23-million-immigrants-eligible-to-vote-in-2020-election-live-in-just-five-states/

[iv] Kriel, L. and Trevizo, P.  Texas has spent billions of dollars on border security. But what taxpayers got in return is a mystery.  Texas Tribune, Accessed at:  https://www.texastribune.org/2022/04/18/texas-border-security-spending/

[v] Jeffers, Jr. G.  (2022 October).   Abbott, O’Rourke near finish line. Accessed at:  https://www.pressreader.com/usa/the-dallas-morning-news

Uvalde School Massacre: Another Mass Shooting Under Gov. Abbott’s Gun Friendly Leadership

 

Texas has made national news headlines again for the horrific mass shooting in Uvalde, Texas that ended the lives of 19 elementary school students and two teachers. The pictures of the children and teachers who lost their lives from this senseless act that has saddened and angered all of us.  It is no secret that Texas has become a fertile ground for mass shootings in recent years, facilitated in large part by gun-friendly laws supported by Gov. Abbott and Republican lawmakers. As illustrated by Figure 1 below, there have been 19 mass shootings throughout the state since 1966. [i] Robb Elementary, where the recent mass shooting took place, is a predominantly Hispanic school in South Texas (shown as ID =1 on the map).

Figure 1: Mass Shootings in Texas by Counties

As shown by the following accompanying table which is keyed to the map by ID, of the 283 killings resulting from mass shootings since 1966, 58 percent of these killings (or 163) occurred since Gov. Abbott took office in 2015.  This information excludes mass shootings at Fort Hood since military law more directly influences the behavior of soldiers than state policies. 

Figure 2 below further illustrates that the number of killings in mass shootings have been accelerating since 2015, a likely consequence of gun friendly legislation more recently adopted under Gov. Abbott’s leadership. Killings for 2022 reflect only the first five months of the year and likely to exceed all previous years assuming that no future changes are made in Texas law related to gun control.

Figure 2:  Number of Killings of Texas Shootings During Gov. Abbott’s Leadership

According to unfolding news reports, the gunman gained access through an open door in the rear part of the school that was supposedly left open by a school teacher.  Contradictory statements were made about the presence of an armed resource officer although it was later confirmed that a resource officer was not present during this time.  Armed with two AR-15 semi-automatic rifles and nearly 1,700 rounds of ammunition, the gunman shot his victims – some who were unidentifiable due to significant amount of missing tissue.  These were mostly fourth grade children who had also made repeated calls to 911 while they were in the classroom pleading for police to intervene, while numerous parents had gathered outside of the school attempting to enter the school to rescue their children.  These parents became more enraged when police restrained them from entering the school, using tasers and other restraints – when it became obvious that the armed police were delaying a forceful entry into the classroom to neutralize the shooter.  An interview with a Dept. of Public Safety officer by CNN (5-28-22) pointed to the likelihood that some officers were actually afraid to engage the shooter for fear of being shot or killed themselves.  

The Chief of Public Safety for the Uvalde school district explained that he mistakenly classified the shooting as a barricaded situation instead of an active shooter situation and decided to wait for a better prepared tactical team to arrive. Admitting later that this decision was a mistake, the delay of nearly one hour allowed the shooter sufficient time to murder 19 children and two teachers and wound various others.  Experts on mass shooting protocols explained that there should not have been any delay in neutralizing the threat, and that the intervention should have been made to eliminate the threat even if only one officer was present. [i]  As explained by Chief of Houston Police Art Acevedo:

“We don’t have all of the particulars right now, but when gunfire is ringing out with, police are trained, expected, and required to engage, engage, engage. This is a moral and ethical obligation.”

Considerable concern is being raised by parents and law enforcement experts about the decision to wait one hour for a tactical team to arrive. A relevant question: why was the decision by the Chief of Police for the school district not challenged by any of the other 19 officers waiting in the school hallway?  Presumably, all had received previous training on protocols for mass shooter situations which required immediate action to eliminate a shooter.

The Mental Health Theory: An especially troubling aspect of the Uvalde mass shooting is the extent to which Gov. Abbott tried to explain the probable cause of the mass shooting in a recent press conference.  At the press conference, Gov. Abbott attempted to show his grief and despair at the loss of so many lives, which he explained was a consequence of the shooter’s “mental health challenge” and that the state needed to “do a better job with mental health.” [ii]   However, several mental health experts challenged this statement by explaining that mass shooters are usually rationale and plan their shootings over time. Although the shooter did not show any documented history of mental illness or criminal behavior, there were several signs that were missed in social media postings -- instances of animal abuse, threats to classmates and plans for a school shooting. As one expert explained, the bigger problem is that “Texas and many other states are awash in weapons and have more guns per capita than any other state. Despite attributions to mental health as the underlying cause of the Uvalde mass shooting, it is notable that Gov. Abbott recently slashed $211 million from the department that oversees mental health for the state. [iii]    Thus, Gov. Abbott’s “mental Health” explanation for the mass shooting lacks merit and is being used by Republican lawmakers to distract attention from the need for sensible gun safety legislation.

What We Know About Guns and Mass Shootings

It is helpful to understand the large presence of guns in America and the violence that guns create.  As summarized by recent analysis: [iv]

1. In 2020, firearms were the leading cause of death for American children;
2. America has six times the number of school shootings than 26 major countries combined;
3. There are more gun deaths in states where gun safety is weaker; and
4. America has nearly 20 times more guns per person than the rest of the world.

Clearly, our nation is paying a heavy price for gun ownership, especially as the guns and AR-15s are employed as a method to express hate and anger towards selected subgroups.  Those who are most at risk are schools and churches whose lack of security makes them more attractive targets to mass shooters.

Recent actions by Texas lawmakers have made it easier for mass shootings and other types of gun violence to take place in our state. Consider the following:

Gun Control:  Recent legislation allows Texas residents to purchase a gun without a permit or gun safety training. The open carry law allows gun owners to display their weapons in public, and one can buy an AR-15 semi-automatic rifle and ammunition at 18 years of age. The Uvalde shooter, in fact, had just turned 18 years when he purchased the two AR-15 weapons and nearly 1,700 rounds of ammunition. Arms manufacturers like Daniel Defense [v] have experienced significant sales of the AR-15 semi-automatic weapon since the Sandy Hook massacre. In 2020, Daniel Defense sold 53,000 AR-15 rifles using controversial marketing practices targeted to young adults. As the owner explained it, customers are living under an increased state of anxiety about their personal safety and feel the need to increase their level of protection.  Daniel Defense is a strong supporter of the NRA and often makes financial contributions to Republican lawmakers. Daniel Defense is facing potential lawsuits for their marketing practices of assault weapons. [vi]

School Safety Is Not a Funding Priority in Texas:  News reports tell us that about 40 percent of the school’s budget was dedicated to security, suggesting that the school district had adequate funding to secure Robb Elementary. However, a series of security blunders were partly responsible for the school shooting, including:  (a) the absence of a security resource officer at the time of the shooting, (b) an unlocked back door to the building where the shooter entered, (3) the failure to implement the school’s lock-down procedure, and (4) incompetence shown by the Chief of Police for the school district when he ordered 19 officers to wait up to one hour for a better prepared tactical team to neutralize the shooter. Clearly, the school resource officers were totally unprepared, perhaps not well trained on mass shooter protocols, and violated mass shooter protocols that required them to eliminate a shooter without hesitation to save lives. The District’s school resource officers appeared overly concerned with their own personal safety once the shooter was initially confronted and allowed the shooter sufficient time to murder the children and teachers.  There is clearly a need to consider replacing the current school district security team as well as their leadership. More funding is clearly needed as well which needs to be better focused on compliance with mass shooter protocols and perhaps using improved technology to alert law enforcement authorities about such events at the moment that the threat is identified.

Rather than invest in improved school safety, however, Gov. Abbott has been more concerned recently about securing the Texas border from the surge of immigrants. He has authorized the spending of millions of dollars to fund Operation Lone Star, his politically inspired program to “secure the border” using federal funds that were previously allocated to pandemic-related programs. By several news accounts, Operation Lone Star has been a complete failure and has contributed little to further Gov. Abbott’s gubernatorial campaign.

Disturbing and Misleading Messaging: In recent media interviews, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton has been advocating specific messages about gun violence:  “Can’t stop bad people from doing bad things,” and that “Good people with guns is the solution to bad people with guns.”  [vii] Okay, Mr. Paxton, but why make it easier for mass shooters to take the lives of innocent children?  There is significant evidence that gun violence has been dramatically reduced in communities that have adopted stricter gun control laws.  Paxton firmly believes that a better alternative to school safety is to encourage teachers and the public to carry weapons to defend themselves when necessary.  As evidence is unfolding in Uvalde, even armed and resource officers failed to engage the shooter and waited instead for one hour for the tactical team to engage and kill the shooter. It should be obvious that untrained or poorly trained individuals are not adequate substitutes for experienced and trained security personnel. Even at the critical moment of need, it appears that even armed school resource officers were thinking twice about risking their own personal safety.  The Paxton clichés are disturbing and contribute nothing to solving gun violence in schools.  

Cozy Relationship with the NRA:  Texas lawmakers make no pretense about their support for the values represented by the National Rifle Association, and reinforced their position by hosting the NRA convention in Houston, Texas.  Out of respect for the loss of lives in Uvalde, however, most of the musicians scheduled to perform at the convention cancelled their performance.  Several Texas lawmakers, including Gov. Abbott, Senator John Cornyn, and Senator Ted Cruz, were also scheduled to present at the conference. Recent news, however, revealed that Gov. Abbott had cancelled his presentation at the NRA and opted instead to visit the Uvalde community on that day – a decision that resulted from criticism of his presence at the conference. [viii]

Texas lawmakers have had another very important reason to continue their support of the NRA.  As shown by Figure 2, Texas congressmen have received substantial funding from the NRA, assuring an unbreakable bond that will continue to undermine progress towards sensible gun safety laws. One wonders how long their opposition to gun control legislation would last if the money dried up from the gun lobby.  Whatever happened to representing the needs of the voters who consistently voice their support in opinion polls for the need to control gun violence?  Indeed, how is it possible to be pro-life in opposing abortion rights but simultaneously be pro-death by supporting legislation that threatens the lives of school children?  How do these politicians explain this contradiction to their own children and families?

Figure 2: Congress Members in Texas with the Most Contributions from Gun Rights Groups

The NRA funding must give these congressmen extra comfort in knowing that their political careers are more financially secure as long as their support for NRA’s position on gun control remains unchanged and they embrace the explanation that the tragic loss of lives was a consequence of failed mental health. Ironically, one can make a stronger argument that the distorted reasoning of these NRA financed lawmakers requires a check of their mental health since it poses a continuing threat to public health.  It is unfortunate that many Texas Republicans have chosen to become passive spectators regarding the history of mass shootings in Texas – taking comfort in the financial support received from the gun lobby, using the unsupported theory that mental health illness is the primary cause for mass shootings, and knowing that their constituencies are gullible enough to believe even incredible lies about the lost Trump election.   

Next Steps

Beto O’Rourke was correct to interrupt the recent press conference by Gov. Abbott to remind those present that the Uvalde massacre was predictable and that Gov. Abbott was doing nothing to prevent a repeat of this disturbing pattern in Texas. There is also some indication that Uvalde residents agree with Beto.  Gov. Abbott and President Biden both made personal visits to Uvalde this past weekend to offer the support and comfort to the aggrieved community members and received quite different receptions.  President Biden was received warmly by the community leaders and Uvalde parents that were present; however, news reports revealed that Gov. Abbott was booed during this visit by several persons attending his visitation.  [1]

This disturbing pattern of mass shootings in Texas is not likely to change course without dramatic action.  Perhaps now is the time to encourage Texas voters to re-evaluate their support for lawmakers who continue efforts to block gun control and safety legislation.

Public protest for sensible gun safety laws following the Uvalde massacre has already begun by students, sports teams, non-profits, celebrities and various other groups. Some deliberations are taking place with bipartisan lawmakers regarding gun control although the likelihood of compromise is not great based on past history.

Following is some food for thought to get the momentum going for gun safety laws and improving school safety:

·        Let’s target lawmakers that remain opposed to sensible gun control legislation by removing some of the benefits that they currently enjoy. You may recall that various efforts were made over the past year to encourage COVID-19 vaccinations because of the threat to public health by unvaccinated persons.  Perhaps lawmakers could be “encouraged” to support gun safety legislation by having sports teams deny them admission to their games or moving national conventions to more supportive states or cities. Supportive lawmakers and the districts that they represent could be rewarded by private corporations, sports teams, and others by providing additional benefits for their support. In a CNN interview today, Gabe Kapler, Manager of the San Francisco Giants baseball team, announced his decision to protest the national anthem during games until more progress is made on gun reform. [2]  Sports teams and celebrities can be strong advocates when their collective voice is heard throughout these heavily publicized and attended venues.

·        Large retailers should be encouraged to stop selling firearms and ammunition and rewarded by public agencies and consumers when such policies are adopted.

·         Programs to buy back firearms should be initiated or expanded, a program that was supported by Beto O’Rourke.

·        Demands should be made to allocate funds to expand and improve security in schools.  It was quite obvious that a series of security blunders contributed to the Uvalde massacre.  This profound negligence likely resulted from poor training, inexperience and poor judgement --- all factors that can be addressed through professional training and perhaps replacement of existing personnel that fail to meet strict standards.

·        Red flag laws could have alerted police departments about the purchases of the weapons and ammunition by the Uvalde shooter.  While this does not address the availability of these semi-automatic weapons or the minimum age of 18 years to buy these weapons, it would at least alert the appropriate authorities about the potential for violence.

·        Social media networks should be required to develop alert systems that can detect postings that point to a threat to public safety and health.

·        Gov. Abbott stated recently that he was “livid” about being misled regarding the police response to the massacre. Perhaps Gov. Abbott should also be “livid” about the gun friendly legislation that made it easier for the shooter to access the AR-15 semi-automatic weapons to end the lives of the Uvalde children and teachers.

The failure of Republican lawmakers to support sensible gun safety legislation must change since it poses a public health threat similar to contagious diseases or environmental disasters.  Our nation would never tolerate public agencies being passive spectators to such catastrophic events, and it makes even less sense to allow the gun lobby and Republican lawmakers dictate the health and safety of our children.  It is clearly time to act boldly to diminish the influence of the powerful gun lobby and its legion of lawmakers who have chosen to prioritize their political careers and profits over the lives of our children.

Reference Notes

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[1] Wikipedia (2022 May 5). List of school shootings in Texas. Accessed at:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_shootings_in_Texas

[2] Fechter, J. and Oxner, R. (2022 May 26).  Authorities took an hour to stop Uvalde gunman, raising questions about law enforcement response  at: https://www.texastribune.org/2022/05/26/uvalde-school-shooting-police-response/

[3]  Aguilar, J.  (2022 May 25).  In Uvalde, Abbott focuses on mental health, Dan Patrick says Americans should turn to God. KERA News, Accessed at:  https://www.keranews.org/texas-news/2022-05-25/in-uvalde-abbott-focuses-on-mental-health-while-dan-patrick-says-americans-should-turn-to-god

[4] Hixenbaugh, M. and Siemasko. C. (2022 May 25).  Abbott calls Texas school shooting a mental health issue but cut state spending for it. NBCNews.com, accessed at:   https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/abbott-calls-texas-school-shooting-mental-health-issue-cut-state-spend-rcna30557

[5] Dunford, D., Rao, G., Borrett, A.  (2022 May 26). Texas school shooting: Every US state affected – maps reveal scale of gun violence in America.  Sky News. Accessed at:  https://news.sky.com/story/texas-school-shooting-the-six-maps-and-charts-which-show-the-state-of-mass-gun-violence-in-the-us-12621141

[6] Yaffe-Bellany, D. and Silver-Greenberg, J. (2022 May 28). New York Times, Accessed at:   https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/28/business/daniel-defense-rifle-texas-shooting-gun.html

[7]  Penzenstadler, N. (2022 May 25). AR rifle maker tied to Texas school shooting facing scrutiny, possible future lawsuits. USA Today.com, Accessed at: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/investigations/2022/05/25/guns-used-uvalde-shooting-prompt-outcry-could-lead-lawsuits/9929998002/

[8] Strauss, V.  (2022 May 25).  Texas official wants to arm more teachers. Bad idea. Washington Post.  Accessed at: https://www.washingtonpost.com/education/2022/05/25/bad-idea-texas-arm-teachers/

[9] Zhang, A. (2022 May 26).  Greg Abbott, Dan Patrick cancel in-person NRA convention appearances in wake of Uvalde mass shooting.  Accessed at:  https://www.texastribune.org/2022/05/26/greg-abbott-nra-uvalde/

[10] Stanton, A. (2022 May 29). Texas Gov. Greg Abbott Booed Upon Arriving at Uvalde School Shooting Site. Newsweek.com,  Accessed at: https://www.newsweek.com/texas-gov-greg-abbott-booed-upon-arriving-uvalde-school-shooting-site-1711227

[11] Dotson, K. (2022 May 27).    San Francisco Giants manager: ‘I don’t plan on coming out for the anthem going forward until I feel better about the direction of our country’.  CNN.com, Accessed at:  https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/27/sport/gabe-kapler-uvalde-national-anthem/index.html

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[i] Wikipedia (2022 May 5). List of school shootings in Texas. Accessed at:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_shootings_in_Texas

Governor Gregg Abbott: It is definitely time to step down.

 

As the Texas gubernatorial race for 2022 heats up, news coverage strongly suggests that it might be a slam dunk for Gov. Abbott.  Indeed, the governor continues to raise lots of campaign money and a recent poll has Abbott leading Beto O’Rourke by 11 points in a hypothetical match-up. [i] The governor was also spared the political pain of overseeing another failure of the electrical grid system in Texas. A careful look at the polling data and a review of several controversial policies supported by Gov. Abbott suggest that his campaign may not be out of the woods.

Polling Data Results on Favorability

Despite Abbott’s 11-point edge over Beto O’Rourke, only 51 percent of Texas registered voters approved of his job as governor – mostly white Republicans. The poll data also showed that:

·       71 percent of Blacks and 50 percent of Latinos disapproved of Abbott’s job performance as governor, and

·       57 percent of Blacks and 44 percent of Latinos had a favorable impression of Beto O’Rourke.

Assuming a significant turnout by Black and Latino voters, Gov. Abbott’s candidacy could be in jeopardy.   Of course, Gov. Abbott may feel confident that the various laws recently passed to restrict voter participation will ensure a weak turnout by Black and Latino voters, but aggressive voter turnout campaigns could overcome these barriers.

Polling Data on Texas Energy Grid

·       While Gov. Abbott may feel confident that the Texas electricity grid held up during the current winter storm, nearly half (47%) of registered voters were not confident that the state’s electricity grid was prepared to avoid blackouts this winter.

·       Interestingly, in a related Dallas Morning News story, [ii] it was revealed that the demand on Texas’ grid had topped out at 60 gigawatts on Friday morning and that this demand “never came near the record levels seen during last year’s winter storm that brought the grid to a near collapse.” In other words, Gov. Abbott deserves little credit for the adequate performance of the electricity grid this year since we were all blessed with a milder winter that demanded less electricity.

Past Performance

Gov. Abbott, however, does deserve credit for the many public policies that he and his fellow Republicans have supported to the detriment of our quality of life in Texas, especially for Black and Latino residents.  If you plan to vote for Gov. Abbott this March, you should take a moment to reflect on the following policies and judge whether he really deserves your vote.

·       Texas Electricity Grid Remains Vulnerable:  Your lack of action to prevent the electricity grid crisis resulted in the loss of more than 240 lives. As the primary steward of this state, you are responsible for this failure since you appointed the members of the Public Utility Commission who ignored the advice of industry experts for more than a decade to prepare for extreme weather. You cannot hide behind the performance of the grid in 2022 since the system benefited from milder weather conditions. You have yet to explain why recent efforts to improve the weatherization of our infrastructure was not conducted years earlier when it was recommended by industry energy experts.

·       Texas gun laws allow anyone to purchase a gun without a license or training.  Beto O-Rourke is not alone in objecting to this legislation and has the support of various police organizations.  The recent massacre of 23 Latinos and two dozen injuries in El Paso underscores the stupidity driving this legislation and the legislature’s refusal to enact stiff gun control laws.[iii]  It makes little sense, indeed, to support pro-life policies related to abortion laws, while simultaneously making it easier for Texans to end lives by making it easier to access firearms. In addition to the increase of mass shootings, Texas was the second state, following Florida, with the most road rage incidents involving a firearm in 2022. [iv] Not exactly a badge of honor, Gov. Abbott.

·       During the early phases of the COVID-19 crisis, your vaccination and mask mandate policies created confusion and increased the risk of infection and mortalities for many Texans.  Indeed, you decided to lift the mask mandate against the important advice of health experts and other key trends -- Johns Hopkins University showing low vaccination rates and  high positivity rates for Texas; Hispanic mortality rates were four times higher than whites; and Black mortality rates were twice the rate of whites. You also threatened to block the distribution of vaccines allocated to Dallas County because local public officials were planning to target vaccines to the more vulnerable Black and Latino zip codes. Texas Blacks and Latinos were already experiencing greater exposure to COVID-19 due to their jobs, housing arrangements and limited access to vaccination sites.    

·       Falsely claiming that the surge of migrants at the Texas border would lead to a rise in the spread of COVID-19.  But border agencies that process migrants confirmed that they routinely quarantined and tested migrants for COVID-19 prior to entry and release. In addition, Gov. Abbott had refused federal funds that Texas, local governments and non-profits could use to test all migrants for the virus.

·       Falsely claiming that immigrants made crime worse in Texas. Studies addressing this issue in Texas have confirmed that immigrants commit fewer crimes, on average, than native-born Americans. [v]

Gov. Abbott, it is time for you to accept responsibility for your poor judgment and poor performance in these areas.   Your administration presided over the decisions regarding the energy crisis that led to the deaths of more than 240 Texans and caused significant damage to the state’s infrastructure. Your administration generated significant confusion during the COVID-19 crisis and threatened to block the allocation of vaccines to vulnerable Black and Latino communities in Dallas County. And your administration lifted the mask mandate despite objections by medical experts, an action that contributed to higher mortality rates of Texas Blacks and Latinos. You also created fear and hysteria by falsely associating higher crime rates with immigrants and blaming migrants for spreading the COVID-19 virus.

In planning for the Texas gubernatorial race on March of 2022, let’s hope that voters will remember the series of public policy failures and false information campaigns that took place under the watch of Gov. Abbott.  There is really no one else to blame.

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[i] Garrett, R. T. (Jan. 2022).  Abbott running comfortably ahead of O’Rourke in DMN-UT-Tyler poll; Paxton could face runoff. The Dallas Morning News, Accessed at:  https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2022/01/29/abbott-running-comfortably-ahead-of-orourke-in-dmn-ut-tyler-poll-paxton-could-face-runoff/

[ii] Jankowski, P. (February 2022).  Texas electric grid weathers winter blast, showing it’s ‘more reliable’ than ever, Greg Abbott says.  The Dallas Morning News, Accessed at: https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2022/02/04/power-grid-holding-up-as-gov-greg-abbott-gets-set-to-update-texans-on-impact-of-ongoing-freeze/

[iii]  Silva, C.  (August 2021). White supremacy, racism: Remembering the El Paso massacre that targeted Latinos. NBCNews.com, Accessed at: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/white-supremacy-racism-remembering-el-paso-massacre-targeted-latinos-rcna1580

[iv]  Borelli, L. (July 2021). Road rage statistics 2022. BankRate.com, accessed at:  https://www.bankrate.com/insurance/car/road-rage-statistics/#stats

[v] Nowraster, A. (2018, February 26). Criminal immigrants in Texas.  The CATO Institute, Accessed at: https://www.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/pubs/pdf/irpb-4-updated.pdf