Monday, February 17, 2020

Undermining the 2020 Census: Trump’s Toxic Brew of Crime, Hysteria and Immigrants


In a recent news story, The New York Times tells us that the Trump administration is sending elite tactical Border Patrol teams (BORTRAC) to sanctuary cities that “release dangerous criminal aliens to prey upon the public.” [i]  Sanctuary cities are targeted because local officials have refused to provide  support to ICE in enforcing immigration policies that are perceived as pushing undocumented people further into the shadows, making cities less safe as immigrant become less likely to report crimes or cooperate with investigations.

These BORTAC agents are accustomed to engaging in armed confrontations with drug-smuggling suspects using armored vehicles. They act as the SWAT team of the Border Patrol using such gear as stun grenades and enhanced Special Forces-type training. The officers usually target individuals who are known to be violent with extensive criminal records. Local officials have voiced concerns about the increased militarizing of their communities that could also have deadly consequences. The interventions also result in “collateral arrests” involving innocent family members.    
   
This terror campaign against sanctuary cities is broad in its scope and includes large cities like Chicago, New York, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Atlanta, Houston, Boston, New Orleans, Detroit and Newark, N.J. The map[ii] below, produced by The Center for Immigration Studies, shows the current distribution of sanctuary counties (yellow), cities (red) and states (green) throughout the U.S.  Importantly, there are many communities throughout the U.S. with substantial numbers of immigrants that are not sanctuaries and thus excluded from this map.

Figure 1: Distribution of Sanctuary Cities, Counties and States, 2020
Source:  Center for Immigration Studies, February 2020.


















Interestingly, it is no coincidence that the BORTRAC agents are being deployed from February  through May of this year – the same period of time that the 2020 Census is being conducted.   Previously, the Trump administration also worked feverishly to include a citizenship question in the 2020 Census questionnaire which was rejected by the courts due to its potential to discourage response rates of the nation’s immigrant population. Similarly, the deployment of BORTRAC agents is designed to create fear and anxiety among immigrants in sanctuary cities that is likely to discourage participation in the 2020 Census. 

Why does this matter?  Because access to millions of federal dollars by cities throughout the nation are jeopardized by a Census under-count – funds that are used to support schools, hospitals, roads and highways, and other infrastructure needs. The irony is that a Census under-count will impact not just sanctuary cities, but many communities with substantial immigrant populations that are not sanctuaries.  For example, Dallas County is not included in the list of sanctuary counties, but it is estimated that $40 million in federal funds will be lost for every 1 percent drop in the Census response rate. [i]

To justify this reign of terror, the Trump administration explains that the elite agents will assist the targeted communities in handling “dangerous criminal illegal aliens” that are being protected by sanctuary cities. The facts about immigrant crime, however, have established over numerous studies that immigrants do not increase local crime rates, are less likely to cause crime and less likely to be incarcerated than their native-born peers – important facts that were included in a recent review by The Cato Institute regarding immigrant crime rates in the U.S. and the State of Texas. [ii]  In their in-depth analysis of data from the Texas Department of Public Safety, Institute investigators analyzed the arrests and convictions for the year 2015 to determine the extent to which different crimes were conducted by illegal immigrants, legal immigrants and the native born.  The conclusion from their analysis, quoted below, provides concrete evidence that the Trump narrative about “dangerous criminal aliens” is false and misguided:

“The homicide conviction rate for illegal immigrants was 16 percent below that of native-born Americans in Texas in 2015. The conviction rates for illegal immigrants were 7.9 percent and 77 percent below that for native-born Americans for sex crimes and larceny, respectively.  For all criminal convictions in Texas in 2015, illegal immigrants had a criminal conviction rate 50 percent below that of native-born Americans.  Legal immigrants had a criminal conviction rate 66 percent below that of native-born Americans.”  (p.5)
Crime, therefore, is merely a pretext for justifying the deployment of BORTRAC agents in sanctuary communities – a pretentious show of force whose only purpose is to discourage participation of immigrants in the 2020 Census and enhance the political positioning of the Republican party.
Also lost in the campaign to target sanctuary cities are the substantial contributions made by immigrants,  both legal and undocumented, to the U.S. economy, the defense of our nation in times of war, the many patents for inventions at U.S. academic institutions, keeping the Social Security system solvent, and the numerous jobs created by entrepreneurs. [iii]
The Trump administration and the GOP have demonstrated an uncanny ability of fortifying their political power by implementing draconian policies that punish immigrant families and the public entities that value and support immigrants. I am hopeful, nonetheless, that the supportive network of sanctuary cities, counties and states will remain steadfast in their support and maintain careful vigilance over the newly deployed tactical agents to discourage the use of aggressive or violent behavior towards immigrant residents. Non-sanctuary cities should be equally concerned about the potential loss of federal dollars in their communities as well since the deployment of BORTRAC agents will be communicated by news media throughout the nation.
In the meantime, the Census Bureau will be doubly challenged to ensure an accurate count in the 2020 Census as Trump’s elite forces are deployed in the sanctuary cities. To minimize potential confrontations with ICE and Trump’s elite forces, perhaps immigrants should be strongly encouraged to complete the online version of the Census questionnaire on their smart phones, home computers or other devices. Trump should not be handed a victory by allowing his elite forces to suppress Census participation, depriving communities of important federal funds, and shaping the balance of political representation.
U.S. residents should realize that when immigrants lose, we all lose.       


Reference Notes


[i] Dallas County, Texas (2018). Request for Proposal for 2020 Census Participation Initiative for Dallas County, Page 21.
[ii] Nowrasteh, A. (2018).  Criminal immigrants in Texas:  Illegal immigrant conviction and arrest rates for homicide, sex crimes, larceny, and other crimes. Immigration Research and Policy Brief No. 4, The Cato Institute. Accessed at https://www.cato.org/publications/immigration-research-policy-brief/criminal-immigrants-texas-illegal-immigrant
[iii] Rincón, E. T. (2017). Sanctuary city politics:  Wolves in sheep’s clothing.  TribTalk – Perspectives on Texas. A Publication of the Texas Tribune.  Accessed at https://www.tribtalk.org/2017/02/13/sanctuary-city-politics-wolves-in-sheeps-clothing/










[i] Dickerson, C. and Kanno-Youngs, Z. (2020).  Border Patrol will deploy elite tactical agents to sanctuary cities. The New York Times, accessed at https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/14/us/Border-Patrol-ICE-Sanctuary-Cities.html
[ii] Griffin, B. and Vaughan, J.S. (2020). Center for Immigration Studies, accessed at https://cis.org/Map-Sanctuary-Cities-Counties-and-States

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