Tom Thumb Cancellation at Red Bird Mall Stuns Southern Dallas Community

 

There is little question that recent news about the cancellation of plans for a Tom Thumb store at Red Bird Mall stunned many interested parties that had invested considerable time, energy and finances in recent years to recruit a mainstream supermarket to this community.  The planned Tom Thumb supermarket was set to receive $5.8 million in city tax incentives to open the store next year at the Red Bird Mall area.

The planned Tom Thumb was envisioned as a welcome resource for residents who have long been yearning to see quality grocery stores in the area which would also include a pharmacy.  The planned store was especially appreciated given that Southern Dallas includes half of the 90 food deserts in Dallas County and populated by a growing number of dollar stores (Dept. of Agriculture 2019 Food Atlas).

Red Bird Mall developer, Peter Brodsky, was especially disappointed at this decision:  “We had gotten through the design process — fully designed building, fully designed site plan, had already received a permit — and it was sort of the last possible moment they let us know that they were going to pull out.” (Interview in DMN 12,16-24).

As a compromise, Albertsons Cos. stated that they would provide no-fee delivery to ZIP codes surrounding the previously planned store through nearby Tom Thumb locations.  But one community leader in Southern Dallas responded that “They want our business but do not want us to visit their store – that is very disappointing.”

Specific reasons for cancelling the planned store were not provided by Albertsons Cos. although a spokesperson explained that it followed discussions with the City of Dallas and had conducted a thorough economic evaluation.  Peter Brodsky, however, did not appear satisfied with this explanation: “You got to ask them their exact reasons, but I can only assume that they didn’t have confidence that the store will be successful in the market, even with the city subsidies.”  (DMN 12-16-24).

Indeed, it is possible that other reasons were driving the decision by Albertsons Cos. to cancel the planned store?  Let’s consider the following issues:

·       Diminishing the Competition:  Was the earlier introduction of the Joe V Smart Shop store by H-E-B approximately one mile from the planned Tom Thumb store at Red Bird Mall just a coincidence? Perhaps, but it is also likely that it was a planned move to erode whatever competitive advantage the planned Tom Thumb store would have enjoyed from City of Dallas incentives and significant community support that had grown in recent years. Indeed, the Joe V store could have been located at several other locations throughout Southern Dallas, but the decision to place the store in close proximity to the planned Tom Thumb store was viewed with skepticism by some community members.

·       Absence of Community Involvement:  In a recent study of 70 supermarket interventions in food deserts throughout the U.S., Dr. Catherine Brinkley of UC Davis concluded that community involvement was one of the best predictors of their success.  Yet, there has been no evidence that a trade area study of the Red Bird community has been conducted.  Such a study would have measured the estimated market share for the planned Tom Thumb and Joe V stores well as the estimated food expenditure that could support a 50,000 sq. ft. supermarket. Importantly, such studies are often used to evaluate the store design, products and services that would best fit the expectations of community residents.

·       Use of the Wrong Metrics:  The “thorough economic analysis” that was conducted by Albertsons Cos. may not have included the right metrics in reaching their decision to cancel the planned Tom Thumb store. Past studies have demonstrated that traditional site selection metrics are not as effective for selecting promising communities in lower-income areas (Rincon & Tiwari, 2020). Without an independent evaluation of the economic analysis conducted by Albertsons Cos., one cannot determine if the analysis was sufficient to support their decision.

Moving forward, Albertsons Cos. should support an independent evaluation of their economic analysis as a measure of good faith and to avoid perceptions that other factors were driving their decision making.  Prior to inviting other supermarket providers to invest at Red Bird Mall, a trade area study that includes a survey of community residents should be conducted to determine demand, market share, retail leakage and other key metrics that are critical in site selection studies. Of the various recent announcements of new store openings in North Texas by Kroger, Tom Thumb and H-E-B, most have excluded locations in Southern Dallas – so a new site selection strategy is clearly needed.   

Rincon, E. T. and Tiwari, C. (2020) Demand Metric for Supermarket Site Selection: A Case Study, Papers in Applied Geography, https://doi.org/10.1080/23754931.2020.1712555

Please send comments/feedback to the following email:  edward@rinconassoc.com 

Mass Deportations: Time for a Re-fresh on Immigration Facts

  

It comes as no surprise that the Republicans for Trump are aggressively amplifying the campaign promise of deporting 15 million illegal immigrants if he is elected President – a strategy that resonates well with Republican voters since it blames illegal immigrants for such hot button issues as rising crime rates, taking jobs from American citizens, and generally destroying the U.S. economy.  Recent polls show that immigration remains a top concern among American voters, suggesting that voters are willing to accept Trump’s allegations about undocumented immigrants as factual.  When vice-presidential candidate JD Vance was asked in a recent interview just how this mass deportation would be implemented, his response was limited to stopping illegal entry at the border as a starting point but did not elaborate any details about the enormous undertaking of deporting millions of families residing in the U.S.  Past history points to three likely outcomes:  (a) setting up concentration camps for undocumented families, similar to the Japanese experience during World War II, (b) separation of families at the Texas border where many children were not returned to their families, or (c) deporting families to countries experiencing considerable violence. The hysteria related to mass deportations may be influencing perceptions of the Trump campaign.

Several recent polls suggest that the tide is turning in favor of Kamala Harris, an unexpected change that may influence the willingness of Trump supporters to embrace the idea of mass deportations. Consider the following:

·        Recent polls of registered voters revealed that Harris has a consistent edge over Trump ranging from 4- 5 percent. Indeed, compared to last July, Harris (60%) has almost doubled her support by Democratic voters compared to Biden (34%), while support for Trump by Republican voters changed by only 3 percent since last July.

·       Support for Harris has also increased among Independent voters whose support since last July has increased by 11 percent compared to just 4 percent for Trump.

·       Importantly, one recent poll of Latino voters by Siena College revealed strong support for Harris at 57 percent with support for Trump lagging far behind at 38 percent – a substantial improvement from previous polls of Latino voters.  The recent endorsement of Harris by the League of Latino United Latin American Citizens (LULAC) could be helpful as well.

·       Trump stated in a recent interview at the National Association of Black Journalists convention that “there’s an invasion of people coming into the country, and the Black population is affected most by that.” The degree to which Black voters believe this assertion is unknown, although it underscores the need for the Harris campaign to publicly challenge this statement.  

·       While national polls between 2016 to 2024 show that Black support for Trump had been steadily increasing, a recent poll of Black male registered voters by HIT Strategies in key states showed that 66 percent planned to vote for Harris while only 17 percent planned to vote for Trump.  Black voters supporting Trump felt that they were left behind by Biden on social issues and policy failures.

·       A more recent poll conducted by YouGov for CBS immediately after the Democratic Convention revealed decidedly higher support among Black voters for Harris (82%) compared to Trump (17%), and increased support among Hispanic voters for Harris (58%) versus Trump (41%). 

·       In an apparent sign of desperation, Trump’s campaign has even created a fake ad using AI showing that Taylor Swift supports Trump – which Taylor Swift quickly denied.

Interestingly, these trends point to a potential window of opportunity for Democrats to give an additional boost to the Harris campaign,  especially in states like Texas, California, New York and others that include large numbers of Latino and Black voters.  Indeed, the additional boost provided by Latino and Black voters could make a substantial difference in a close race.

The extra boost could happen by more clearly defining to voters that, instead of a threat to the U.S. quality of life, immigrants represent a valuable asset.  This extra boost could be accomplished by encouraging journalists to (a) to conduct more thorough fact checks about the falsehoods related to immigrants and (b) reminding voters of the significant contributions that immigrants have made to the U.S. quality of life.

Fact Checking the Falsehoods

News stories often allow the demonizing of immigrants to continue with minimal efforts devoted  to challenge the factual basis for these falsehoods. Coincidentally, Trump is now using border crossings in his rallies to falsely claim credit for the lowest border crossings before he left office. By assertively challenging these falsehoods, audiences may reject or re-consider embracing statements that demonize immigrants.  Following are three falsehoods that should receive immediate attention:

·       Allegation: Border crossings by illegal immigrants continue to increase and bring many criminals and drugs into the U.S.

Fact Check:  According to a recent report from the U.S. Custom and Border Protection (See Figure 1 below), border encounters decreased substantially over the past fiscal year from 240,932 in October 2023 to 104,116 in July 2024 – a 77 percent decrease.  Compared to FY 2023 (dark blue line), this trend reflects a substantial improvement for FY 2024. Credit for this decrease is given to the Biden administration executive actions to shut off access to the U.S. asylum system for migrants who enter illegally and the Mexican government efforts to tighten enforcement at the border.

Figure 1

Source:  U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) Encounters  by Fiscal Years 2023 and 2024 (YTD), Accessed on August 17, 2024.

·       Allegation:  Illegal immigrants into the U.S. include many criminals that are leading to rising crime rates.

Fact Check:  The Cato Institute is recognized for its expertise in the study of crime rates and immigration status.  In their 2018 analysis, the investigators concluded that the facts about immigrant crime rates have established over numerous studies that immigrants do not increase local crime rates, are less likely to cause crime and less likely to be incarcerated than their native-born. In their 2024 study of illegal immigration and homicide rates in Texas, investigators concluded that native-born Texans had a higher homicide rate that was 26 percent higher than illegal immigrants. Over the ten years from 2013 to 2022, the homicide conviction rate in Texas for illegal immigrants was 2.2 per 100,000, compared to 3.0 per 100,000 for native-born Americans and 1.2 per 100,000 legal immigrants.   The state of Texas is one of few states that uniquely keeps data on the immigration status of those arrested and convicted of crimes.  The Texas data may or may not generalize to other states.

·       Allegation:   Immigrants are taking jobs away from Americans.

Fact Check:  In a recent analysis in 2024 by Axios.com, the investigators reported that the notion that immigrants take jobs from U.S. workers has been refuted by economists for years. This conclusion also applies to the recent statement by Trump that the invasion by immigrants into the U.S. was mostly affecting the Black population – also a falsehood.

In 2023, foreign-born workers (including legal and undocumented immigrants), comprised 18.6 percent of the U.S. civilian labor force according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Foreign-born workers, especially the undocumented, are concentrated in such jobs that are considered essential to the economy, such as construction, food, farming, and services. Without immigrant labor, the cost of housing, food, and other essential services would rise significantly for American consumers. These jobs tend to pay lower wages, are often dangerous, and offer little to no insurance benefits. Some occupations like construction and farming result in injuries and exposure to toxic chemicals. It comes as no surprise that native-born American workers do not aggressively seek such occupations.

Immigrant Contributions to the U.S. Quality of Life

The contributions made by immigrants, both legal and undocumented, to the quality of life in the U.S. is not a common topic discussed in daily news reports.  Yet, their contributions have been documented in various areas as discussed below.

·       Economic Power:  In their report on Taxes and Spending Power,  The New American Economy reports key indicators of the extent to which immigrants support the U.S. economy.   In 2014, the spending power of the nation’s foreign born was estimated at $926.9 billion while their total tax contributions were $328.2 billion.   Hispanic immigrants provided a total spending power of $300.0 billion with federal tax contributions of $56.4 billion.  Immigrant spending power in Texas was $89.6 billion which represented 17.1 percent of total immigrant spending power. Texas also benefited by $29.1 billion of tax contributions by immigrants. Spending power provides immigrants considerable power to buy goods and services, which strengthens the U.S. economy, provides jobs to American workers and supports businesses.

·       Business Formation:    Immigrants are more likely to start businesses than the U.S. born.  The National Immigration Forum reports that the entrepreneurship rate for immigrants in 2015 was 11.5 percent while it was 9.5 percent for the U.S. born. Immigrant-owned businesses generated $65.5 billion in income in 2024, and 40.2 percent of immigrant firms were listed in the Fortune 500. Immigrant businesses also tend to revive neighborhoods, create jobs and spur further economic development.

·       Social Security and Medicare:  Experts have observed for many years that Illegal immigration has helped to keep Social Security and Medicare in a better financial position. This happens for one clear reason: although illegal immigrants are generally not eligible to collect Social Security and Medicare benefits, many still pay taxes into these two systems. As long as the illegal immigrants remain ineligible for benefits, these taxes function as free contributions to the trust funds.

·       Military Participation:  Since the nation’s founding, immigrants have defended the nation in every major conflict and proven to be an invaluable resource in conflicts requiring knowledge of different languages and cultures.  As of 2022, Military Times reported 731,000 foreign-born veterans in the U.S., representing 4.5 percent of the nation’s 16.2 million veterans.  Moreover, of the 3,400 Medals of Honor awarded since the Civil War, 22 percent have been awarded to immigrants.  

Conclusion

All things considered, immigrants – both legal and undocumented -- continue to be an enormous asset to the quality of life in the U.S., including the economic assets, labor supply for essential services, job creation, defense of our country in global conflicts, business formation, and scientific competitiveness.  By focusing on the relatively few although tragic murders of Americans committed by undocumented immigrants, Republicans have created a significant amount of hysteria that generalizes to both undocumented and legal immigrants to the detriment of voter support for Democratic candidates.  The isolated number of homicides committed by undocumented immigrants distract attention from a history of mass shootings by native-born Americans and evidence confirming a higher homicide rate by native-born Americans than undocumented immigrants. Moreover, the number of border crossings at the U.S.-Mexico border has decreased in the most recent fiscal year by 77 percent, pointing to great progress by the Biden administration in controlling the flow of undocumented immigrants.   Kamala Harris is indeed gaining momentum in the race for president, but the Harris campaign will continue to be threatened by persistent Republican messaging that focuses attention on American murders committed by undocumented immigrants.  Therefore, it is urgent that Democrats diffuse the Republican message about the danger of undocumented immigrants by reminding the public about the many immigrant contributions to the U.S. quality of life and their lower crime profile that reinforces their respect for U.S. laws.

Note:  I welcome your feedback. Please send your comments to edward@rinconassoc.com

Edward T. Rincón, Ph.D.

Infographic: Supermarket Redlining Consequences and Choices

 Click here to download pdf copy

Click here to download pdf copy

Dollar Stores and Rats: Can You Smell the Irony?

In case you missed it in the news recently, two events took place independently but seem nonetheless closely related. Progressive Grocer, a food industry publication, recently published a story celebrating the business success of Dollar General stores and deemed them “Retailer of the Year.” [1] Why?  Due to their phenomenal growth in the U.S. and their sound economic standing. Last year, Dollar General commanded 18,000 stores with sales of $33.7 billion in 2021.   The dollar store industry is growing rapidly – from 20,000 to 30,000 between 2015 and 2018 and up to 50,000 additional stores are planned in the near future. [2]  As shown by the figure below, Texas had the most dollar stores (3,400), followed by Florida (2,100) and Ohio (1,700). 

In a webinar that I published recently, [3] I questioned the wisdom of celebrating such an achievement in the dollar store industry.  Yes, phenomenal expansions and sales are important metrics in the business world.  But the desire to celebrate this achievement was diminished as one ponders the documented harm caused by dollar stores in communities throughout the U.S., especially food deserts that are the primary focus of their marketing strategy.  You see, food deserts are populated primarily by lower-income blacks and Latinos who show a higher prevalence of chronic illnesses that are directly associated with consuming the types of unhealthy foods sold by dollar stores. [4]  Mainstream supermarkets have made it a practice of avoiding food deserts, often citing social indicators that lower profitability.  If true, then what is driving the phenomenal growth and success of dollar stores --- sheer luck?   The reality is that food deserts often show substantial food expenditures that are derived from employment income and SNAP food benefits – a fact that is well documented by federal sources of information such as the Census Bureau and USDA. [5]

The second noteworthy event is the story about 1,000 rodents that were discovered recently at the Family Dollar store distribution center in Arkansas. According to the story, the FDA announced a recall for items purchased at stores in six southern states. The FDA inspection followed a consumer complaint which discovered inside the building live rodents, dead rodents in “various states of decay,” rodent feces, dead birds and bird droppings. [6] In their news release, Family Dollar listed the 404 stores that may have sold products from the contaminated facility, while it also stated that the company "is not aware of any consumer complaints or reports of illness related to this recall."  Is it possible that the absence of any consumer complaints or reports of illnesses may have provided Family Dollar executives a false sense of security about food safety and therefore precluded the need to conduct regular store inspections?  Indeed, there were dead rodents and others in various stages of decay that could have been present for weeks or months.  Shouldn’t food distribution systems be inspected on a regular schedule and not dependent on consumer complaints?  It was indeed surprising that one consumer complaint was the singular event that initiated the FDA inspection.   

This horrific state of decay in the Family Dollar distribution system should raise alarm bells about food safety at all dollar stores, especially given their rapid growth and their primary customer base – economically and medically vulnerable persons.  Our business and civic leaders, who for the moment appear inspired to address race equity issues, should be held accountable by consumers and require a response to the following three important questions:

• How often are dollar store distribution centers in the U.S. inspected by the FDA? Are these schedules of inspection similar for centers that serve communities with food deserts?
  
  
• Why have zoning laws not been adopted to limit the growth of dollar stores?, and
  
  
• When will public agencies stop incentivizing supermarket chains who continue to avoid food deserts and instead choose to enter communities that are already crowded with multiple supermarkets?

I feel a deep sense of compassion for the many residents in food deserts that find it necessary to purchase food at dollar stores to feed their families, especially knowing how easily rats can make a dollar store distribution warehouse their home for an extended period of time. The prolonged indifference shown by various stakeholders towards this issue --- including supermarket chains, dollar stores, business and civic leaders, and the FDA --- could encourage rat infestations to spread throughout food systems in the more vulnerable communities.  Let’s hope that bolder and more aggressive efforts are taken to ensure the food safety for all communities, especially the most vulnerable ones.

 Reference Notes

---

[1] Troy, M.  (2021)   2021 Retailer of the Year. Progressive Grocer, Accessed at: https://progressivegrocer.com/2021-retailer-year-dollar-general

[2]  Donahue, M. (2018 December).  The Impact of Dollar Stores and How Communities Can Fight Back,  Institute for Local Self-Reliance, Accessed at www.ilsr.org/dollar-stores

[3] Rincon, E. T. (2022)  Food Deserts:  Evaluating Their Economic Value. Rincon & Associates LLC, Accessed at:  https://youtu.be/sAGrlnAR8ug?t=00m00s

[4] Ibid 2, Donahue, M.

[5] Rincon, E.T. and Tiwari, C. (2020 March).  Demand metric for supermarket site selection: A case study. Papers in Applied Geography, https://doi.org/10.1080/23754931.2020.1712555

[6]  Associated Press (2022 February)  More than 1,000 rodents found in Family Dollar facility lead to recall of items sold in 6 states. USA Today, accessed at:  https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/shopping/2022/02/19/family-dollar-rodent-infestation/6860094001/

Haitian immigrants at the Texas border deserve better treatment

 

Such is the vision inscribed at the Statue of Liberty that for generations has represented America’s ideal for welcoming previous waves of immigrants to our nation.   The thousands of Haitian immigrants that recently arrived at the southern U.S. border, however, were met with border patrols on horseback using lariats to control the crowds of immigrants --- not exactly the welcoming committee that would ordinarily alleviate the pain and hunger of traumatized victims.

President Biden deserves some of the blame for this surge for publicly announcing that his administration would promote more humane immigration policies. However, immigration from Mexico has declined dramatically in recent years despite Biden’s promotion of more humane immigration policies  – an outcome that reflects how the flow of immigration can be controlled when countries collaborate to achieve mutual goals.

President Biden, however, does not deserve all of the blame for the surge of Haitian immigrants. What energized the surge of Haitians was a devastating earthquake, the assassination of the country’s president, the failed Haitian economy, and the proliferation of crime --- clearly events beyond Biden’s control.  Moreover, history tells us that President Biden is not alone in encouraging more humane immigration policies. Indeed, numerous past presidents have issued executive orders to protect the status of various immigrants from different countries. [i]

While our political leaders decide on the ultimate disposition of Haitian immigrants, we should all be alarmed at the treatment that these immigrants have received at the Texas border.  Rather than comfort these immigrants who have experienced considerable trauma in their home countries and their travel to our border,  we instead decide to return them as quickly as possible to their home countries where their lives will remain in danger from crime and food deprivation.  On the other hand, the U.S. does have some choices to consider.

Our country is a nation of immigrants whose economic and intellectual growth has been fueled by the presence of immigrants.  As we ponder the decision to deport Haitian immigrants to their home countries, perhaps we need a brief reminder of the many ways in which immigrants have benefited our country:

·        Immigrants have often met the demand for labor shortages in such industries as food, hospitality, construction, and healthcare.  As a result of the pandemic and restrictive immigration policies, our nation is in dire need of more employees. Studies have shown that immigration provides a younger workforce, the entrepreneurial workers, and the skilled employees needed for essential industries such as healthcare, construction, agriculture, and food processing. [ii]

·        Non-citizens have historically served an important mission in defense of the U.S.  According to the Department of Defense, non-citizen recruits are likely to possess language and cultural skills that are of strategic importance to military operations outside of the U.S.  Between 2016 to 2020, there were 29, 970 non-citizens that were approved for naturalization in the U.S. military. [iii]  The top five countries represented by non-citizens in the military included Philippines, Mexico, China, South Korea and Jamaica.

·        The Social Security trust fund has been kept solvent in part from the substantial contributions made by unauthorized immigrant workers. Undocumented immigrants contributed $13 billion into the Social Security funds in 2016. While they make contributions, undocumented immigrants are not eligible to receive social security benefits. [iv]

·        Immigrants have contributed substantially to scientific innovation in the U.S.:    In the United States since 1976, citizens of foreign countries have filed 25 percent to 30 percent of patents. Indeed, immigrants file patents at double the rate of native-born Americans because they are more likely to hold science and engineering degrees. [v]

Given the many contributions that immigrants have made to the U.S. and the current labor shortages across many industries, perhaps we should pause to remember the virtues inscribed in the Statue of Liberty and offer the Haitian immigrants the same opportunity that previous waves of immigrants have experienced upon arrival to our nation.  Indeed, if the situation were reversed and U.S. residents were forced to seek humanitarian assistance from our global neighbors, would we want to be greeted by troopers on horseback using a lariat upon our arrival?  Probably not.

Reference Notes

---

[i] Desilver, D. (2014, November 21).  Executive actions on immigration have long history, Pew Research Center, Accessed at: https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/11/21/executive-actions-on-immigration-have-long-history/

[ii] The Labor Law Review. (2021, August 26).  Immigration and labor shortages. Accessed at:   https://www.natlawreview.com/article/immigration-and-labor-shortages

[iii]   U.S. Citizenship and Naturalization Services. Military Naturalization Statistics. Accessed on 9-24-21 at: https://www.uscis.gov/military/military-naturalization-statistics

[iv]  New American Economy.  Undocumented immigrants.  Accessed on 9-24-21 at:   https://www.newamericaneconomy.org/issues/undocumented-immigrants/#economic-contributors,-not-criminals

[v] Nowrasteh, A. (2020, May 14).  Don’t Ban H-1B Workers: They Are Worth Their Weight in Innovation, CATO Institute, Accessed at: https://www.cato.org/blog/dont-ban-h-1b-workers-they-are-worth-their-weight-patents  

H-E-B: South Dallas Overlooked Again by New Supermarket Introductions

 

Yes, we should all celebrate the arrival of two new H-E-B supermarkets in North Texas – one in Frisco and a second one in Plano – both suburban communities that have been in the national spotlight due to significant population growth.[1] [2] The H-E-B brand has proven successful in markets throughout Texas and existing competitors have reason to worry about their diminishing market shares once the two stores – both 110,000 square feet -- open in the Fall of 2022.

One wonders, however, why H-E-B chose to open two new stores in communities that already included at least 6-7 other supermarkets while overlooking other communities that continue to have fewer or no supermarket choices.  To obtain some insight on this issue, I retrieved relevant demographic and economic information [3] to compare the opportunities in the two locations chosen by H-E-B with two other zip codes in South Dallas that remain under-served.  Following is the resulting table that profiles these four communities.

The two zip codes in South Dallas – 75215 and 75216 – were chosen as comparison points because interest has been shown by community advocates to establish the groundwork for a mainstream supermarket in these two communities.  In zip code 75215, the Cornerstone Community Market has received financial support to open this Spring, while efforts to introduce a store in zip code 75216 are continuing.  Interestingly, the statistical information presented in this table suggests that the two South Dallas communities should have caught the attention of H-E-B as potential sites for their supermarket brand. 

Let’s study this table to understand why this makes sense.

A significant income gap was clearly observable. Median household income is perhaps the most frequently used metric in retail to measure disparities in economic standing.  Clearly, the sites chosen by H-E-B revealed significantly higher median household incomes ($112,930 and $117,707) than the ones in South Dallas ($30,865 and $27,288). Similarly, aggregate household income (that is, the sum of all income earned by employed persons in a household) was distinctly greater for the H-E-B sites ($3.1 and $5.8 billion) compared to the South Dallas sites ($314 million and $724 million). Although SNAP benefits are not considered income, they nonetheless supplement a household’s ability to pay for food. Since the South Dallas sites had substantially more households receiving SNAP benefits (34.5% and 31.2%) than Plano (0.1%) or Frisco (2.9%), substantially greater SNAP benefits were observed for the South Dallas sites ($8.5 million and $20.9 million) compared to Plano ($614,484) and Frisco ($3.9 million).    

Demographically, the communities differed significantly. Perhaps it is only coincidence that the two sites chosen by H-E-B were predominantly non-Hispanic white (66.2% and 60.6%) and secondarily non-Hispanic Asians (16.4% and 16.2%). By contrast, zip code 75215 in South Dallas was predominantly Black (68.1%) while zip code 75216 included mostly Blacks (54.9%) and Hispanic (21.0%).  About two thirds of the households in the Plano and Frisco zip codes were homeowners (63.7% and 67.0%); by contrast, most of the residents in zip code 75215 were renters (67.5%) while zip code 75216 was more evenly split between homeowners (49.0%) and renters (51.0%).

Despite these wide disparities, the potential demand for a mainstream supermarket was observed in each of these  communities. Using our own formula for estimating food-at-home expenditures (FHE), we estimated annual FHE for the   H-E-B sites as $136 million for Plano and $295 million for Frisco, while the FHE for zip code 75215 in South Dallas was $46.6 million and $132.8 million for zip code 75216.  Importantly, South Dallas zip code 75216 shared some similarities with zip code 75093 in Plano -- FHE, total population and total households – which could have made zip code 75216 a suitable substitute for zip code 75093.   

Adjusting for the existing number of supermarkets in each zip code, however, differences in the potential demand for a supermarket become more uniform across these four communities.  Zip code 75093 in Plano, for example, already includes SIX supermarkets that currently share the estimated annual food-at-home expenditures of $136.6 million. Assuming that the six stores have equal shares, their individual shares would be approximately $22.8 million. Of course, this does not include the new H-E-B store which will likely diminish this share even further.  Similarly, the share for the seven stores in zip code 75034 in Frisco would be approximately $42.2 million assuming equal shares.  With no supermarkets currently operating in zip code 75215, however, the potential share for one supermarket would be $46.6 million, while the share for zip code 75216 would be $132.8 million with one existing supermarkets. Of course, with H-E-B’s entrance into the Plano and Frisco communities, the potential shares are expected to change dramatically and perhaps lead to some store closures as well. Thus, competition or the lack of competition can make a big difference in the performance of a supermarket.

Concluding Thoughts:  A company like H-E-B with a track record of successful supermarket performance in Texas is probably quite comfortable with their site selection strategy and may not see a need to change it.  It is unfortunate, however, that such a successful supermarket brand has opted to overlook the opportunity to change the historic supermarket redlining practice in South Dallas, which has left this community without healthy and nutritious food choices for decades.   

H-E-B’s decision to overlook the South Dallas community is especially difficult to justify given the documented economic assets in this community. Collectively, the two zip codes in South Dallas included 71,145 residents who spent an estimated $180 million annually for food-at-home.  Only two supermarkets serve these two communities, which means that their food dollars are being spent on dollar and convenience stores which reinforces the practice of unhealthy eating. In addition, much of their food dollars are spent at supermarkets outside of these communities --- referred to as “retail leakage” – which contributes little to the economic vitality of their own communities.  H-E-B executives --- are you listening? 

An Alternative Strategy:  Community groups have grown tired of the redlining practices by supermarkets and the absence of any decisive action by public officials to change this trend.  Consequently, some community groups are developing their own solutions along with the support of private industry and foundations that share their vision for healthier food choices. For example, Cornerstone Baptist Church in South Dallas was successful in obtaining start-up funding by The Real Estate Council, City Square, St. Phillips School and Community Center, and Cornerstone Baptist Church – clear evidence that the store concept has merit in the eyes of these community stakeholders.[4]  

Arlington Woods, Indianapolis is a food desert with a predominantly Black community of 100,000 residents without a full-size grocery store within 4-mile radius. A medical device manufacturer – COOK Medical – is building a plant in this community and adding a grocery store based on feedback from community residents.[5]  Importantly, two local Black convenience store owners were hired to operate the new grocery store and provided training on store operations as well.  Future plans call for these two young men to assume store ownership as well.

In my opinion, these are two excellent approaches to the persistent practice of supermarket redlining.  Community groups can achieve their goal of establishing better food options through creative partnerships with the private sector, foundations and other community groups that share their vision. Eventually, supermarket brands will recognize that their highly selective site selection strategies also reinforce redlining practices – whether intentional or not – and cannot be justified with the available evidence.  Indeed, our recent research [6] using an innovative urban site selection model revealed that (a)  perceptions of higher crime rates were not supported by actual analysis of crime data, (b) traditional metrics used in site selection formulas, like household median income, have little relationship to the dollars spent annually on food-at-home, (c) SNAP benefits are a significant component of food spending, and (d) various food deserts show sufficient economic assets to support the annual sales of a mainstream supermarket.

Access to healthy food choices is a right, not a privilege that prioritizes communities with a more attractive economic profile. Food providers, especially large supermarket brands, should re-evaluate their site location strategies and place more weight on the inclusion of under-served communities that show promising economic potential.  H-E-B has an impressive record of community support in areas related to disaster relief, diversity, education, celebrating first responders and hunger relief (i.g., food banks and holiday dinners). [7] However, it is time for H-E-B and supermarkets in general to take the bold step of also reducing the number of food deserts in under-served communities. While the various areas of community support are valued, they cannot fulfill the role of a full-service supermarket. 

 Reference Notes

[1] Halkias, M. (2021, June 3).  H-E-B is underway on its Frisco and Plano stores, the popular grocer’s first in North Texas. Dallas Morning News, Accessed at:  https://www.dallasnews.com/business/retail/2021/06/03/h-e-b-starts-construction-on-its-frisco-store/#

[2] Department of Agriculture Environmental Food Atlas, Accessed at: https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/food-environment-atlas/

[3] American Community Survey 2019 5-Year Estimates, Accessed at https://data.census.gov/cedsci/

[4] Dand, S. (2021, May 6).  Cornerstone Baptist Church is launching a grocery store to address food insecurity in South Dallas.  Cornerstone, Dallas Morning News,  Accessed at: https://www.dallasnews.com/news/2021/05/06/cornerstone-baptist-church-is-launching-a-grocery-store-to-address-food-insecurity-in-south-dallas/#:~:text=Now%2C%20in%20an%20effort%20to,set%20to%20open%20this%20spring.

[5]  Yousry, F. (2021 May 22).  This neighborhood badly needs a grocery store. A medical device maker will build one. National Public Radio,  Accessed at: https://www.npr.org/2021/05/22/998646579/medical-device-maker-building-plant-in-a-food-desert-adds-grocery-store-to-its-l

[6] Rincon, E. T. and Tiwari, C. (2020 March 23). Demand metric for supermarket site selection: A Case Study.  Papers in Applied Geography, Accessed at: https://doi.org/10.1080/23754931.2020.1712555

[7] H-E-B: Giving back to our communities. Accessed at https://www.heb.com/static-page/Community-Involvement