NY Times Poll Expert Nate Cohen Misjudges the Value of the Texas Latino Vote for Biden's Campaign

 In a recent Upshot column for The New York Times, polling guru Nate Cohen analyzes the tea leaves for recent polling in Texas and concludes, as the title of his column suggests, that “With Weakness Among Hispanic Voters, Biden Trails in Texas.”  As I recently discussed in my recent blog about the Texas Latino vote, I disagree with Mr. Cohen who seems to place little weight on the more recent poll findings about the Latino vote in Texas that was sponsored by The Dallas Morning News and UT-Tyler.  The following table displays the presidential preference by race/ethnicity, gender and age.

Source:  DallasNews.com, October 25, 2020

In my opinion, Joe Biden’s support from Texas Hispanic voters is huge (69%) and consistent with recent polls by Pew Research Center and Latino Decisions. However, Hispanic support for Donald Trump (21%) shows a significant decline from the previous 33 percent support documented in these same polls.  In addition, the current DMN/UT-Tyler poll confirms a point that I made in my earlier analysis that Hispanic women (73%) in Texas are solidly behind Joe Biden and should be targeted more aggressively in the remaining days before the election.  Joe Biden also enjoys strong support in Texas from Blacks (89%) and younger voters in the 18-24 (78%) and 25-34 (59%) age groups.

Of course, polling analysts consider a number of factors to support their conclusions. In the case of the potential benefit of the Texas Hispanic vote for the Biden campaign, I believe that Mr. Cohen has simply misjudged this issue. Coupled with the surge of early voting by Hispanic voters, we have good reason to be optimistic that the Hispanic vote will prove to be very influential in the 2020 elections.

The Biden Texas Hispanic Campaign Needs an Immediate Realignment

In a recent New York Times story,[i] writer Jennifer Medina discusses the curious support of Donald Trump by Hispanic voters, estimated at 30 percent by recent polls.  Who are these “Latino Trumpers” and how do they justify their support for Trump given the numerous racists comments made by Trump about Latinos and immigrants in addition to the aversive policies targeted to Latinos?

In reviewing general polling results of Latino voters, Medina first discusses some demographic differences among Latino voters.  For example, there is a large gender gap in preferences for the Biden vs. Trump:  Hispanic males (35%) are more likely to support Trump than Hispanic females (23%), while Hispanic females (67%) are more likely to support Biden than Hispanic males (59%).[ii]  This gender gap is partially explained by the higher tendency of Hispanic women to be college educated, while Hispanic men tend be over-represented in jobs related to law enforcement, such as the military, Border Patrol, and Immigration and Customs Enforcement.  In addition, Trump reportedly shows more support from “American born” Latinos who are under 45 years old, non-college graduates, and evangelicals. In Florida, support is reportedly stronger among Cubans and Venezuelans who oppose communism.

To better understand the psychological profile of Latino male Trumpers, Medina analyzes the results of a research study of Mexican male Trumpers that captured their perceptions of Donald Trump. Little information was provided about the study methodology, so proceed with caution in generalizing her observations to other Latinos. Nonetheless, the writer points to the concept of “machismo” to describe Trump’s appeal to Hispanic male Trumpers – a concept that is often used in reference to Hispanic males who are dominant, over-bearing, and indifferent to the needs of others. This rationale for this allure to the “macho” image projected by Trump is described by the following phrases articulated by the Hispanic males who participated in this research study. To Hispanic male Trumpers, Donald Trump:

·       Is forceful, wealthy and unapologetic

·       Is a symbol of economic success

·       Is confident of his own opinions

·       Disdain for face masks is a sign of power

·       Relies on his own research as a basis for denying medical guidance by experts

·       Is committed to the military

In addition, Hispanic male Trumpers enjoy being the subject of curiosity for supporting Trump and willing to tolerate criticism for supporting Trump by friends and family members.  Although the imagery associated with Joe Biden was minimal, these Trumpers described Biden as “weak” and deserving of the title “Basement Biden.”   Thus, Hispanic male Trumpers appear to share the same beliefs and values as Donald Trump, and may not be deserving of attention by the Biden campaign.

Biden’s Campaign is Urged to Step it Up in Texas

Medina’s analysis further underscores several observations by industry experts that the Biden campaign has not invested enough financial resources to engage Hispanics, especially in Texas, where the Biden vs. Trump competition is close.  In a recent news article,[iii] for example,  both Julian Castro and Beto O’Rourke reinforced the message to the Biden campaign that they need to step up their game in Texas during the remaining days before the election on November 3^rd.  According to our recent analysis of Latino support for Biden in battleground states, [iv] about two-thirds of Latino voters voiced support for Biden while only one-third supported Trump. With less than 10 days until the election, a new poll by The Dallas Morning News/UT-Tyler of Texas likely voters showed strong continuing support by Latino for Biden (67%) while the support for Trump (20%) has declined --- which may be one reason that among all Texas likely voters, support for Biden (46%) is now slightly higher than Trump (44%). It is conceivable that a more aggressive investment of the Biden campaign towards increasing Latino voter turnout could prove to be a significant factor in turning the state blue.    

Strategy Going Forward

Based on Medina’s recent review of the Latino voter profile and my own past experience in conducting surveys of U.S. Latinos, it seems that the Biden campaign needs to make some immediate changes in its Texas Latino voter strategy in the remaining weeks of the election. Following are some suggested ideas.

Delivery Vehicle for Campaign Messaging: First, after months of criticism to step up his game, the Biden campaign reportedly released a series of Spanish-language ads to engage Hispanics.  However, a Spanish-language strategy is a tactical mistake if one is trying to reach native-born Hispanics, especially in Texas.  Our past 45 years of experience in analyzing the media habits of U.S. Hispanics confirms that a majority of native-born Hispanics utilize English-language media for their news and information, while Spanish-language media is more effective in capturing immigrant audiences. Pew Research Center reports also confirm this trend. [v] So the delivery vehicle really needs to change as follows: 75 percent focus on English-language media and 25 percent on Spanish-language media.

Demographic Target:  The most desirable demographic target for Biden should be Hispanic women.  Why?  Because Biden already enjoys great standing among Hispanic women, especially the college-educated, and they would be great ambassadors for convincing other Hispanics who are undecided or independent to support the Biden ticket.  Moreover, Hispanic women are more likely than Hispanic males to be college graduates, politically active, and entrepreneurs.  Hispanic males who share similar attributes as these Hispanic women would also be included as a target segment. However, since Latino male Trumpers share many of the same values and attributes as Donald Trump, it may be a waste of resources to change their fascination with Donald Trump at point in time. 

Message Strategy: Hispanic women should be reminded about the programs and policies advocated by Joe Biden that have benefited Hispanics as well as proposed future programs, especially as it concerns COVID-19, food insecurity, jobs, education, childcare, healthcare, a women’s right to choose, and business development.   

Although climate and environmental issues have not been reported as major concerns in recent polls of Hispanic voters, the most recent Biden vs. Trump debate focused on Biden’s statements about limiting fracking because “the oil industry pollutes, significantly.” Fracking is a technological innovation that has brought fortunes to the economies of the oil and gas industry, especially in states like Texas and Pennsylvania.  When Biden stated that he would not eliminate fracking but transition over time to other types of cleaner and renewable energy, President Trump and GOP members charged that Biden was trying to “destroy the oil and gas industry,” “kill many jobs,”  “Democrats are coming hard for Texas’ oil and gas industry,” and “he just killed paychecks earned by hardworking families in Texas.”   The reality, however, is that the oil and gas industry had already lost 118,000 jobs during the pandemic as demand and prices for oil fell dramatically. [vi]  According to an industry research firm, it would take more than 16 years to recover the energy jobs lost since February. [vii]  As underscored by Joe Biden, renewable energy is the best solution for the future, has surged sharply with the downturn in the oil and gas market, creating numerous jobs, and providing a cleaner environment for families.

The fracking debate should be a top concern for Texas Hispanic voters.  While it has provided jobs and a significant boost to the Texas economy, fracking comes at a heavy cost to the environment and the health of Hispanics and other poor families who live in close proximity to these fracking sites.  The following map shows the distribution of the 415,354 oil and gas facilities in Texas as of 2017 (black points) and the distribution of the state’s schools and day care facilities (lighter points). [viii] 

The web site authors define a threat radius as the area within ½ mile of active oil and gas wells, compressors and processors. Persons who live within a threat radius have cause for concern about potential health impacts from oil and gas pollution. An estimated 782,627 students live within a threat radius. This pollution includes dangerous chemicals that have been associated with various medical illnesses to residents living in close proximity to these sites, including the following:

·       Congenital heart defects

·       Cancer

·       Anemia

·       Brain damage

·       Respiratory tract infections

·       Oral clefts and neural tube defects

In Texas, the oil and gas facilities are concentrated in highly populated Hispanic and lower income communities.  In addition to a higher prevalence of these medical illnesses, the fracking process utilizes large amounts of water that is draining the water resources for many of these communities, some which are also experiencing drought conditions.

The conclusion for messaging seems clear:  Joe Biden should be honored, not criticized, for taking the bold step to protect our environment and the health of our residents from the toxic pollutions that are generated by fracking sites.  Hispanic campaign messaging should include information about the consequences of fracking to their families’ health and environments – a message that may resonate more strongly with Hispanic women but may also capture the attention of Hispanic males who are exposed to these toxic work environments.

A Final Thought:  The profile of Hispanic male Trumpers describes a person that is fascinated with power and an indifference to factual information about Trump’s achievements. As a long shot strategy, it may be useful to include messaging for Hispanic male Trumpers to clarify the following misconceptions that were previously voiced about Donald Trump:

·       Trump is a successful businessman. If Trump is so successful, why is he over $1 billion in debt, and why has he filed for bankruptcy several times in past years? [ix]

·       By not using a mask, Trump shows that he has power. Rather than symbolizing power, not using a mask reveals ignorance of medical advice that is known to save lives. Hispanics, in particular, are experiencing more COVID-19 illnesses and deaths than other groups in the U.S. This is not power.

·       Trump does his own research to reach his own conclusions.  Trump has no medical training or knowledge and often ignores the scientific advice of experts, especially on health issues. An example of his ignorance was his advice for using Lysol disinfectant to treat the coronavirus.

·       Trump respects the military.  On the contrary, Trump has been disrespectful of war heroes like the late Sen. John McCain and called soldiers who died in European war “suckers and losers.” He avoided military service due to a supposed bone spur medical diagnosis arranged by his father. Trump often disparages our military leaders but idolizes world dictators who have historically oppressed their people.

·       Trump shows confidence in his opinions, but his opinions are usually based on lies that contradict the scientific facts. If science does not matter, do you also ignore the advice of doctors that prescribe medications and perform surgeries --- both which are based on the results of scientific research?   

·       Trump is not a racist. If Trump is not a racist, why did his administration separate Hispanic children from their families? There are now 545 Hispanic children in U.S. custody who were separated by the Trump administration from their parents, and their parents cannot be found.

 

In summary, a successful strategy to turn Texas blue during this election may depend on the ability of the Biden campaign to accelerate their targeting of Hispanic voters, especially women, with the right messaging using English-language media.  Let’s hope that Biden’s campaign manager is listening.

---

[i] Medina, J. (2020, October 14).  The macho appeal of Donald Trump.  The New York Times. Access at https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/14/us/politics/trump-macho-appeal.html

[ii] Krogstad, J.M. and Lopez, M. H. (2020, October 20).  Latino voters have growing confidence in Biden on key issues, while confidence in Trump remains low.  FACTTANK, Pew Research Center. Accessed at https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/10/16/latino-voters-have-growing-confidence-in-biden-on-key-issues-while-confidence-in-trump-remains-low/

[iii] Gillman, T.J. (2020, October 22).  Beto O’Rourke and Julian Castro fume that Biden has neglected Texas, demand ‘crunch time’ investment.  Accessed at https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2020/10/22/beto-orourke-and-julian-castro-fume-that-biden-has-neglected-texas-demand-crunch-time-investment/

[iv] Rincon, E.T. Polls provide conflicting views of Hispanic support for Biden vs. Trump. The Culture of Research Blog, Accessed at  https://thecultureofresearch.blogspot.com/2020/09/polls-provide-conflicting-views-of.html   

[v]   Lopez, M.H. and Gonzalez-Barrera, A. (2013, July 13).  A growing share of Latinos get their news in English. Pew Research Center. Accessed at:  https://www.pewresearch.org/hispanic/2013/07/23/a-growing-share-of-latinos-get-their-news-in-english/

[vi] Peacock, B.  (2020, May 11).  Renewable energy booming in Texas as oil and gas struggles. The Texan. Accessed at https://thetexan.news/renewable-energy-booming-in-texas-as-oil-and-gas-struggles/#:~:text=EnergyIssuesRenewable%20Energy%20Booming%20in%20Texas%20as%20Oil%20and%20Gas%20Struggles&text=Solar%20energy%20also%20reached%20its,is%20down%20over%2010%20percent.

[vii] Takahasi, P.  (2020, August 21).  U.S. oil and gas industry sheds 118,000 jobs during pandemic. Houston Chronicle, accessed at https://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/energy/article/U-S-oil-and-gas-industry-sheds-118-000-jobs-15505020.php#:~:text=Texas%20had%20the%20largest%20number,19%20percent%20of%20its%20workforce.

[viii]   Source: Oil and Gas Threat Map (2020, October 24).  Accessed at https://oilandgasthreatmap.com/threat-map/texas/

[ix] Alexander, D. (2020, October 16).  Donald Trump Has At Least $1 Billion In Debt, More Than Twice The Amount He Suggested. Forbes,  https://www.forbes.com/sites/danalexander/2020/10/16/donald-trump-has-at-least-1-billion-in-debt-more-than-twice-the-amount-he-suggested/#632ff0f14330

The Richards Group Steps into a Multicultural Minefield

The recent headlines about Stan Richards’ controversial comments regarding their Motel 6 client sounded an alarm bell throughout the advertising and marketing industry, especially as it relates to multicultural marketing.  As the recent Dallas Morning News story reports, Mr. Richards stated in a meeting at the ad agency’s office that a particular ad pitch for Motel 6 was “too Black”  for its “white supremacist constituents.”  The statements were reportedly made during an internal meeting to discuss an idea for celebrating Black artists in a Motel 6 campaign.

The ensuing reaction by the firm’s clients was a bloodbath:  In addition to losing the Motel 6 account, The Richard Group also lost accounts for Home Depot, Keurig/Dr. Pepper/Keurig, H-E-B, Orkin and Advanced Auto Parts.  Last year, The Richards Group reported revenues of $200 million, but the loss of these large accounts will lead to the loss of many jobs at the firm.

Mr. Richards has apologized for his misstatements and assured us that he has never uttered racists comments in the past. He “fired” himself from the firm while operations will be assumed by his hand-picked successor, Glen Dady, who has worked with Richards for 40 years. In addition, Richards is planning to create a new position on diversity, equity and inclusion; begin bias training for staff; and commit to becoming more “culturally relevant.”

 In the past, such apologies may have been forgiven in due time but the current volatile climate for race relations in the U.S. suggests that The Richards Group will feel the pain for a longer period of time. With such a close relationship to his successor, one wonders if changes will indeed occur or whether traditional practices will continue.

As a research professional who has evaluated multicultural campaigns for the past 45 years, it is indeed difficult to understand why Mr. Richards felt the need to make the controversial statements about the multicultural campaign.  In the normal course of campaigns, it is customary to conduct focus group research with members of the target audiences and let them judge the appropriateness of the advertising concept for themselves or members of their communities.  Why would Mr. Richards feel like his views should override the views of the Black or white customers for Motel 6?  And why telegraph the message that Blacks are not welcomed at Motel 6 or that its preferred customers are “white supremacists?”  While Mr. Richards is described as being “fiercely independent,” it appears consultation with a multicultural expert may have been the best approach.

This unfortunate incident underscores a general problem that permeates academic institutions today, that is, the relative absence of courses in multicultural marketing, public relations and research. The multicultural segment in the U.S. numbering 120 million in 2019, has brought considerable cultural and linguistic diversity to this nation, and continues to challenge the work of advertising agencies and research practitioners.  Unfortunately, these industries have not kept pace with the changing composition of the U.S. population, and college graduates are not receiving sufficient training regarding the best communicative strategies for this growing segment.  Instead, academics have chosen to focus their curricula on international markets rather than the more relevant issues related to U.S. multicultural consumers – a pattern that needs to change.

Certainly, it is never too late to make a company more culturally relevant, especially if your client base serves a large segment of multicultural consumers.  Like the recent experience of racially profiling Black customers by Starbucks, The Richards Group reputation may benefit from staff bias training to staff and hiring someone to lead a newly created diversity, equity and inclusion department. In my opinion, however, this transformation will require more substantive changes in order to be successful. My suggested changes include the following:

·       Hiring multicultural staff – Blacks, Hispanics and Asians – to become key members of the advertising staff.  Aside from ethnicity, these individuals should be experienced professionals that understand these communities.

·       Ensure that the Board of Directors includes multicultural members who are seasoned professionals with intimate knowledge of multicultural communities.

·       Persuade academic institutions to include courses on multicultural marketing, public relations, and research in marketing and advertising departments – thus ensuring that future generations of college graduates will have the foundation to make better judgments regarding multicultural consumers.

 

It will take time for The Richards Group to recover from this unfortunate incident, and the firm is paying dearly for its misstep.  On the bright side, however,  this experience provides a strong message to the broader advertising and marketing communities that their activities as well as their clientele will be closely watched in the current climate of fragile race relations.

Journalistic Practices Are Muting the Voices in Communities of Color

 

It is no secret that the world of journalism has experienced considerable difficulty in recent years with declining audiences. Web-based news networks are major competitors for news audiences, while bloggers have expanded during this time to fill the void by traditional news sources.  In the meantime, a dramatic demographic shift has taken place in the U.S. over the past decade that has added millions of Hispanics, Blacks and Asians – currently numbering 119,505,700 [i] --- that are potential audiences with interest in general and culturally relevant news.

Over the past 45 years, I have conducted numerous research studies of multicultural communities throughout the U.S., many which involved their media and consumer behavior, and have also taught survey research methods at several North Texas universities. This experience, coupled with changes in the media landscape and demographic composition of the U.S. population, points to a disturbing pattern that I have observed in news coverage that is muting the voices in communities of color and limiting news stories to a set of predictable topics. As a case in point, I will describe these patterns for the Dallas Morning News, a mainstream newspaper in North Texas, which I have studied in more depth in past years and read on a regular basis. These patterns, however, may describe other media in large urban markets like the City of Dallas.  Although not an exhaustive list, following are some of the disturbing patterns that I observed:

·       A lack of interest in investigating potential bidding and contract irregularities associated with the 2020 Census campaign for Dallas County. According to recent news coverage by Dallas Morning News, concern was raised regarding vendor performance since Census response rates for Dallas County were clearly lagging behind other Texas counties with large populations.

·       A lack of interest in addressing a legacy of supermarket redlining practices that limit the healthy food choices in Black and Hispanic food deserts, especially relevant in the pandemic environment.

·       The practice of excluding Black and Hispanic faculty or experts in news stories that tap their expertise. While not the “usual suspects,” these individuals are present in North Texas and not difficult to identify.

·       A pattern of exclusion of local Hispanic op-ed contributors to the Viewpoints section.  Several years ago, Carolyn Barta – a past Viewpoints Editor at DMN -- invited a group of known Hispanic writers (including myself) to submit op-ed pieces to Viewpoints, but acceptance of these submissions dwindled after Ms. Barta’s departure which muted the voices of these Hispanic writers.

·       Coverage of positive stories during Hispanic Heritage Month and Black History Month have been a common practice, but coverage over the remaining 11 months has generally focused on poverty, immigration, under-achievement, crime patterns, and similar downbeat topics.

·       Careless reporting of crime patterns has sometimes mis-portrayed communities of color as hot crime spots, which discourages economic development in these areas.

·       Rather than focus on economic activity and achievements, business news about the Dallas Hispanic Chamber has generally focused on internal problems that they were experiencing.

·       Books written by Hispanic authors with a scientific or social science focus often escape the attention of journalists -- with the possible exception of cookbooks. 

·       In response to the growing presence of Latinos, many mainstream media shops have added Spanish-language publications that are primarily read by Latino immigrants. Unfortunately, Hispanic-focused stories that are placed only in Spanish-language publications become segregated from English-language audiences – reinforcing the continuing segregation that is already evident in housing, education, religious and social areas.

·       Media companies with Spanish-language assets may face tougher times into the future [ii] as the potential audience for Spanish-language media continues to decline.  Indeed, the Census Bureau experts project that, by the year 2060, 46 million native-born Latinos will be added to the U.S.— vastly out-numbering the 7.6 million foreign born Latinos.

 

Going forward, my hope is that journalists and schools of journalism will reflect on these patterns and consider the extent to which they describe their respective practices.  Unless these journalistic patterns change, mainstream media like the Dallas Morning News may become obsolete as a consequence of their reluctance to connect with the changing composition and interests of their audiences. Spanish-language media, on the other hand, may need to re-evaluate their growth strategy into the future.

The Dallas Morning News, and the other major newspapers and media outlets here in North Texas and around the country need to take bold, proactive steps to better reflect and cover communities of color, and clearly needs to intensify its efforts to at least make sure we have a share of the voice as sources and in opinion columns.

 

End Notes

---

[i] Census Bureau (2020). American Community Survey 2019 One-Year Estimates, accessed at www.data.census.gov.

[ii] Rincon, E. T. (2020, April 01). A perfect storm is facing U.S. supermarkets.  Journal of Marketing Channels.  

Why are Republicans Scrambling to Suppress the Latino Vote?

It is indeed puzzling to witness Republicans scrambling to suppress the Latino vote for the November election.  Governor Gregg Abbott recently ordered a limit of only one mail-in ballot drop-off location for each Texas county, an action that has initiated lawsuits charging Latino voter suppression from the League of United Latin American Citizens (LULAC), the Texas chapter of the League of Women Voters, and two individuals.

In addition to creating more difficulty for Latino voters, Governor Abbott’s action creates higher barriers for persons with disabilities and those 65 years and older who are concerned for their personal safety and the additional distance that they will need to travel to a single location.  

Other recent actions initiated by Republicans to limit voter participation include the numerous false allegations of fraud associated with mail-in ballots, significant reductions in the capabilities of the U.S. Post Office to process mail-in ballots, and not allowing Texas voters to use COVID-19 exposure as a basis for requesting a mail-in ballot.

The irony is not lost here – why are Republicans in such a frenzy to further limit Latino voter participation given their historically low voter turnout rates in past presidential elections? According to Pew Research, Latino voter turnout rates were 48.0 percent in 2012; 27.0 percent in 2014; 47.6 percent in 2016; and 40.4 percent in 2018. No cause for worry, right?

Rather than encourage Latino voter turnout, however, Republicans like Gov. Abbott are experiencing a re-awakening of their strategy due to several recent trends:

·       Highly populated areas like Harris County expect a surge of mail-in ballots, especially from Democratic precincts that include many Latinos and Blacks;

·        The number of mail-in ballots that have been requested from Democratic-leaning precincts are dramatically out-numbering the Republican precincts;

·        Most recent polls confirm that two-thirds of Latino registered voters would support Biden while Trump captures only one-third of the vote, a trend that is consistent across the battleground states;

·        Bloomberg is investing millions to support Democratic candidates;

·        According to Pew Research, 32 million Latinos are projected to be eligible to vote this November and represent 13.3 percent of all eligible voters in the U.S.

Governor Abbott’s action especially wreaks of hypocrisy. During the last gubernatorial election, the governor’s televised campaign included a Hispanic family member in a pitch to capture the support of Texas Latinos. While the Latino vote may have been candy to Governor Abbott in the past, perhaps the governor's current sentiments about Latino voters is best captured in B.B. King's song "The Thrill is Gone."

With the exception of LULAC, it is particularly troublesome to observe the relative silence among Latino business and civic organizations that have publicly challenged the legality and morality of these Latino voter suppression tactics.  Rather than bury one’s head in the sand, these voices need to be loud and constant in the days remaining to the November election.

In my opinion, the available evidence regarding the increasing number of Latino eligible voters, registration rates, and polling results suggests that Latinos are energized to vote in the November election and that Republicans may pay a heavy price for their deliberate tactics to suppress the Latino vote.