Tom Thumb Cancellation at Red Bird Mall Stuns Southern Dallas Community

 

There is little question that recent news about the cancellation of plans for a Tom Thumb store at Red Bird Mall stunned many interested parties that had invested considerable time, energy and finances in recent years to recruit a mainstream supermarket to this community.  The planned Tom Thumb supermarket was set to receive $5.8 million in city tax incentives to open the store next year at the Red Bird Mall area.

The planned Tom Thumb was envisioned as a welcome resource for residents who have long been yearning to see quality grocery stores in the area which would also include a pharmacy.  The planned store was especially appreciated given that Southern Dallas includes half of the 90 food deserts in Dallas County and populated by a growing number of dollar stores (Dept. of Agriculture 2019 Food Atlas).

Red Bird Mall developer, Peter Brodsky, was especially disappointed at this decision:  “We had gotten through the design process — fully designed building, fully designed site plan, had already received a permit — and it was sort of the last possible moment they let us know that they were going to pull out.” (Interview in DMN 12,16-24).

As a compromise, Albertsons Cos. stated that they would provide no-fee delivery to ZIP codes surrounding the previously planned store through nearby Tom Thumb locations.  But one community leader in Southern Dallas responded that “They want our business but do not want us to visit their store – that is very disappointing.”

Specific reasons for cancelling the planned store were not provided by Albertsons Cos. although a spokesperson explained that it followed discussions with the City of Dallas and had conducted a thorough economic evaluation.  Peter Brodsky, however, did not appear satisfied with this explanation: “You got to ask them their exact reasons, but I can only assume that they didn’t have confidence that the store will be successful in the market, even with the city subsidies.”  (DMN 12-16-24).

Indeed, it is possible that other reasons were driving the decision by Albertsons Cos. to cancel the planned store?  Let’s consider the following issues:

·       Diminishing the Competition:  Was the earlier introduction of the Joe V Smart Shop store by H-E-B approximately one mile from the planned Tom Thumb store at Red Bird Mall just a coincidence? Perhaps, but it is also likely that it was a planned move to erode whatever competitive advantage the planned Tom Thumb store would have enjoyed from City of Dallas incentives and significant community support that had grown in recent years. Indeed, the Joe V store could have been located at several other locations throughout Southern Dallas, but the decision to place the store in close proximity to the planned Tom Thumb store was viewed with skepticism by some community members.

·       Absence of Community Involvement:  In a recent study of 70 supermarket interventions in food deserts throughout the U.S., Dr. Catherine Brinkley of UC Davis concluded that community involvement was one of the best predictors of their success.  Yet, there has been no evidence that a trade area study of the Red Bird community has been conducted.  Such a study would have measured the estimated market share for the planned Tom Thumb and Joe V stores well as the estimated food expenditure that could support a 50,000 sq. ft. supermarket. Importantly, such studies are often used to evaluate the store design, products and services that would best fit the expectations of community residents.

·       Use of the Wrong Metrics:  The “thorough economic analysis” that was conducted by Albertsons Cos. may not have included the right metrics in reaching their decision to cancel the planned Tom Thumb store. Past studies have demonstrated that traditional site selection metrics are not as effective for selecting promising communities in lower-income areas (Rincon & Tiwari, 2020). Without an independent evaluation of the economic analysis conducted by Albertsons Cos., one cannot determine if the analysis was sufficient to support their decision.

Moving forward, Albertsons Cos. should support an independent evaluation of their economic analysis as a measure of good faith and to avoid perceptions that other factors were driving their decision making.  Prior to inviting other supermarket providers to invest at Red Bird Mall, a trade area study that includes a survey of community residents should be conducted to determine demand, market share, retail leakage and other key metrics that are critical in site selection studies. Of the various recent announcements of new store openings in North Texas by Kroger, Tom Thumb and H-E-B, most have excluded locations in Southern Dallas – so a new site selection strategy is clearly needed.   

Rincon, E. T. and Tiwari, C. (2020) Demand Metric for Supermarket Site Selection: A Case Study, Papers in Applied Geography, https://doi.org/10.1080/23754931.2020.1712555

Please send comments/feedback to the following email:  edward@rinconassoc.com 

H-E-B: South Dallas Overlooked Again by New Supermarket Introductions

 

Yes, we should all celebrate the arrival of two new H-E-B supermarkets in North Texas – one in Frisco and a second one in Plano – both suburban communities that have been in the national spotlight due to significant population growth.[1] [2] The H-E-B brand has proven successful in markets throughout Texas and existing competitors have reason to worry about their diminishing market shares once the two stores – both 110,000 square feet -- open in the Fall of 2022.

One wonders, however, why H-E-B chose to open two new stores in communities that already included at least 6-7 other supermarkets while overlooking other communities that continue to have fewer or no supermarket choices.  To obtain some insight on this issue, I retrieved relevant demographic and economic information [3] to compare the opportunities in the two locations chosen by H-E-B with two other zip codes in South Dallas that remain under-served.  Following is the resulting table that profiles these four communities.

The two zip codes in South Dallas – 75215 and 75216 – were chosen as comparison points because interest has been shown by community advocates to establish the groundwork for a mainstream supermarket in these two communities.  In zip code 75215, the Cornerstone Community Market has received financial support to open this Spring, while efforts to introduce a store in zip code 75216 are continuing.  Interestingly, the statistical information presented in this table suggests that the two South Dallas communities should have caught the attention of H-E-B as potential sites for their supermarket brand. 

Let’s study this table to understand why this makes sense.

A significant income gap was clearly observable. Median household income is perhaps the most frequently used metric in retail to measure disparities in economic standing.  Clearly, the sites chosen by H-E-B revealed significantly higher median household incomes ($112,930 and $117,707) than the ones in South Dallas ($30,865 and $27,288). Similarly, aggregate household income (that is, the sum of all income earned by employed persons in a household) was distinctly greater for the H-E-B sites ($3.1 and $5.8 billion) compared to the South Dallas sites ($314 million and $724 million). Although SNAP benefits are not considered income, they nonetheless supplement a household’s ability to pay for food. Since the South Dallas sites had substantially more households receiving SNAP benefits (34.5% and 31.2%) than Plano (0.1%) or Frisco (2.9%), substantially greater SNAP benefits were observed for the South Dallas sites ($8.5 million and $20.9 million) compared to Plano ($614,484) and Frisco ($3.9 million).    

Demographically, the communities differed significantly. Perhaps it is only coincidence that the two sites chosen by H-E-B were predominantly non-Hispanic white (66.2% and 60.6%) and secondarily non-Hispanic Asians (16.4% and 16.2%). By contrast, zip code 75215 in South Dallas was predominantly Black (68.1%) while zip code 75216 included mostly Blacks (54.9%) and Hispanic (21.0%).  About two thirds of the households in the Plano and Frisco zip codes were homeowners (63.7% and 67.0%); by contrast, most of the residents in zip code 75215 were renters (67.5%) while zip code 75216 was more evenly split between homeowners (49.0%) and renters (51.0%).

Despite these wide disparities, the potential demand for a mainstream supermarket was observed in each of these  communities. Using our own formula for estimating food-at-home expenditures (FHE), we estimated annual FHE for the   H-E-B sites as $136 million for Plano and $295 million for Frisco, while the FHE for zip code 75215 in South Dallas was $46.6 million and $132.8 million for zip code 75216.  Importantly, South Dallas zip code 75216 shared some similarities with zip code 75093 in Plano -- FHE, total population and total households – which could have made zip code 75216 a suitable substitute for zip code 75093.   

Adjusting for the existing number of supermarkets in each zip code, however, differences in the potential demand for a supermarket become more uniform across these four communities.  Zip code 75093 in Plano, for example, already includes SIX supermarkets that currently share the estimated annual food-at-home expenditures of $136.6 million. Assuming that the six stores have equal shares, their individual shares would be approximately $22.8 million. Of course, this does not include the new H-E-B store which will likely diminish this share even further.  Similarly, the share for the seven stores in zip code 75034 in Frisco would be approximately $42.2 million assuming equal shares.  With no supermarkets currently operating in zip code 75215, however, the potential share for one supermarket would be $46.6 million, while the share for zip code 75216 would be $132.8 million with one existing supermarkets. Of course, with H-E-B’s entrance into the Plano and Frisco communities, the potential shares are expected to change dramatically and perhaps lead to some store closures as well. Thus, competition or the lack of competition can make a big difference in the performance of a supermarket.

Concluding Thoughts:  A company like H-E-B with a track record of successful supermarket performance in Texas is probably quite comfortable with their site selection strategy and may not see a need to change it.  It is unfortunate, however, that such a successful supermarket brand has opted to overlook the opportunity to change the historic supermarket redlining practice in South Dallas, which has left this community without healthy and nutritious food choices for decades.   

H-E-B’s decision to overlook the South Dallas community is especially difficult to justify given the documented economic assets in this community. Collectively, the two zip codes in South Dallas included 71,145 residents who spent an estimated $180 million annually for food-at-home.  Only two supermarkets serve these two communities, which means that their food dollars are being spent on dollar and convenience stores which reinforces the practice of unhealthy eating. In addition, much of their food dollars are spent at supermarkets outside of these communities --- referred to as “retail leakage” – which contributes little to the economic vitality of their own communities.  H-E-B executives --- are you listening? 

An Alternative Strategy:  Community groups have grown tired of the redlining practices by supermarkets and the absence of any decisive action by public officials to change this trend.  Consequently, some community groups are developing their own solutions along with the support of private industry and foundations that share their vision for healthier food choices. For example, Cornerstone Baptist Church in South Dallas was successful in obtaining start-up funding by The Real Estate Council, City Square, St. Phillips School and Community Center, and Cornerstone Baptist Church – clear evidence that the store concept has merit in the eyes of these community stakeholders.[4]  

Arlington Woods, Indianapolis is a food desert with a predominantly Black community of 100,000 residents without a full-size grocery store within 4-mile radius. A medical device manufacturer – COOK Medical – is building a plant in this community and adding a grocery store based on feedback from community residents.[5]  Importantly, two local Black convenience store owners were hired to operate the new grocery store and provided training on store operations as well.  Future plans call for these two young men to assume store ownership as well.

In my opinion, these are two excellent approaches to the persistent practice of supermarket redlining.  Community groups can achieve their goal of establishing better food options through creative partnerships with the private sector, foundations and other community groups that share their vision. Eventually, supermarket brands will recognize that their highly selective site selection strategies also reinforce redlining practices – whether intentional or not – and cannot be justified with the available evidence.  Indeed, our recent research [6] using an innovative urban site selection model revealed that (a)  perceptions of higher crime rates were not supported by actual analysis of crime data, (b) traditional metrics used in site selection formulas, like household median income, have little relationship to the dollars spent annually on food-at-home, (c) SNAP benefits are a significant component of food spending, and (d) various food deserts show sufficient economic assets to support the annual sales of a mainstream supermarket.

Access to healthy food choices is a right, not a privilege that prioritizes communities with a more attractive economic profile. Food providers, especially large supermarket brands, should re-evaluate their site location strategies and place more weight on the inclusion of under-served communities that show promising economic potential.  H-E-B has an impressive record of community support in areas related to disaster relief, diversity, education, celebrating first responders and hunger relief (i.g., food banks and holiday dinners). [7] However, it is time for H-E-B and supermarkets in general to take the bold step of also reducing the number of food deserts in under-served communities. While the various areas of community support are valued, they cannot fulfill the role of a full-service supermarket. 

 Reference Notes

[1] Halkias, M. (2021, June 3).  H-E-B is underway on its Frisco and Plano stores, the popular grocer’s first in North Texas. Dallas Morning News, Accessed at:  https://www.dallasnews.com/business/retail/2021/06/03/h-e-b-starts-construction-on-its-frisco-store/#

[2] Department of Agriculture Environmental Food Atlas, Accessed at: https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/food-environment-atlas/

[3] American Community Survey 2019 5-Year Estimates, Accessed at https://data.census.gov/cedsci/

[4] Dand, S. (2021, May 6).  Cornerstone Baptist Church is launching a grocery store to address food insecurity in South Dallas.  Cornerstone, Dallas Morning News,  Accessed at: https://www.dallasnews.com/news/2021/05/06/cornerstone-baptist-church-is-launching-a-grocery-store-to-address-food-insecurity-in-south-dallas/#:~:text=Now%2C%20in%20an%20effort%20to,set%20to%20open%20this%20spring.

[5]  Yousry, F. (2021 May 22).  This neighborhood badly needs a grocery store. A medical device maker will build one. National Public Radio,  Accessed at: https://www.npr.org/2021/05/22/998646579/medical-device-maker-building-plant-in-a-food-desert-adds-grocery-store-to-its-l

[6] Rincon, E. T. and Tiwari, C. (2020 March 23). Demand metric for supermarket site selection: A Case Study.  Papers in Applied Geography, Accessed at: https://doi.org/10.1080/23754931.2020.1712555

[7] H-E-B: Giving back to our communities. Accessed at https://www.heb.com/static-page/Community-Involvement

Pharmacies, Not Local Public Officials, May Ensure Race Equity in Vaccination Rates

The release of a long-awaited report on Texas COVID-19 facilities by race-ethnicity was shocking.[1] Not because our community was unaware of race-ethnic disparities in vaccination rates but rather the large size of these disparities in Texas.  As the numbers for age-adjusted death rates per 100,000 revealed, Hispanics were nearly four times more likely to die (133.9) from the coronavirus than whites (35.2), while Blacks (72.5) were twice as likely to die as whites.  Asian death rates (33.3) were slightly lower than whites.

Texas State Rep. Shawn Thierry along with other lawmakers have been advocating for the release of this report in order to mobilize statewide efforts to target vulnerable groups like Blacks and Hispanics, although state officials have been reluctant to act more aggressively. In response to the release of this report, Rep. Thierry explained that the findings underscored the need to target resources to communities of color, especially since other data shows that white residents are getting vaccinated at higher rates than Blacks and Latinos. [2]

Given the high death rates for Latinos and Blacks, it is especially surprising that Texas state officials recently threatened to withhold vaccine doses that were allocated to Dallas County if they proceeded with a plan to target vaccinations to zip codes that included higher numbers of vulnerable Black and Latino residents.

Indeed, efforts to block targeted interventions to vulnerable communities contradicted recommendations by the National Academy of Sciences that recommended that “priority be given to ‘people who are considered to be the most disadvantaged or the worst off’ as defined by measures such as the Social Vulnerability Index created by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.” [3]

The announcement that the Biden administration will begin shipping vaccines to pharmacies throughout the U.S. was a major sight of relief for two reasons.  First, it minimizes the involvement of local politicians in the equitable distribution of the vaccines who have largely bungled the job in its communications, registration and distribution – resulting in higher vaccination rates of higher-income whites than lower-income Blacks and Latinos.  Texas politicians will also have less influence in threatening to withhold vaccines to jurisdictions that want to more aggressively vaccinate the more vulnerable communities of color.

Secondly, pharmacies are much easier to access for the elderly, Blacks and Latinos who encounter more barriers in registrations and obtaining vaccinations.  The Mega Centers are innovative in terms of providing a centralized location to vaccinate thousands of residents more rapidly; however, not all residents can travel to these Mega Centers or wait in line for hours during cold weather without access to restrooms or food.  The distribution of vaccines by pharmacies will not solve all the problems experienced thus far but should lead to significant improvements.

Given the gravity of the higher death rates for Texas Latinos and Blacks, it is disturbing to learn that Texas state officials are delaying any targeted interventions for these groups for several months.  Even more disturbing is that state officials threatened to withhold vaccine doses to Dallas County for attempting to follow the science by targeting the more vulnerable groups of Black and Latino zip codes.  The State of Texas deserves no praise for their callous response to the lives of its Black and Latino residents.

     

Reference Notes

---

[1] Morris, A.  (2021, February 2).  Report highlights disparities – but proposals targeting effects on minorities months away.  The Dallas Morning News, Accessed at: 

[2] Ibid.

[3] Cited in Warren, R.C. D.D.Sl, Dr.PH.H., M.Div., Forrow M.D., L., Hodge Sr., D.Min., Ph.D., and Truog, M.D., R.D.  (2020, November 26).  Trustworthiness before trust – COVID-19 vaccine trials and the Black community.  The New England Journal of Medicine.  Accessed at: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2030033      

What hurts South Dallas more – crime or the hasty reporting of crime?

A recent headline in The Dallas Morning News sent its readers a chilling message: “Dallas has had 200 murders in 2019. Here’s what that means.” [i]  It reminded everyone of the unfortunate consequences of urban growth and the absence of sensible gun control. With 40 homicides recorded for the month of May according to news reports,[ii] Chief of Police Hall requested that Gov. Gregg Abbott send state troopers to assist the under-staffed Dallas Police Department to help control the alarming rise in homicides.[iii] 

Although few specifics were provided on the type of support that the state troopers provided,[iv] news reports indicated that it was focused on the South Dallas community, that community residents felt that the troopers presence did more harm than good and created a sense of distrust.[v] This sense of distrust of DPS troopers was underscored by the slaying of a black resident in South Dallas who was stopped for failing to signal a turn.[vi] Although conflicting reports emerged about whether the victim had drawn a gun or not, the Texas Department of Public Safety declined to release video footage of the incident, and the two state troopers were not indicted for the incident.  The victim had been shot 16 times by the state troopers – five times in the front and four times in the back of his torso according to the autopsy report.

This is not the first time that South Dallas has been singled out in reports related to increased crime.  Interestingly, the Dallas Morning News story further explained that the “majority of homicides occurred in South Dallas zip codes” but did not provide its readers any detailed crime statistics to support this conclusion.[vii]

Adding fuel to the fire was a recent study of South Dallas published in Urban Science [viii] by two social scientists who concluded that “South Dallas is safer than only 13% of the cities in Texas and there is a 1 in 17 chance of becoming a victim of any crime.”

In providing such a disparaging picture of South Dallas, one would hope that journalists and social scientists are doing their due diligence in analyzing crime data.  Unfortunately, that is not always the case.  

Indeed, other independent analyses provide a different picture of crime in South Dallas. For example, D Magazine[ix][x] and NBC 5[xi] recently released news stories that addressed the pattern of homicides by including a map of City of Dallas 2019 homicides produced by Robert Mundinger (www.themap.net). According to these stories, homicides were “pretty much everywhere.” Figure 1a below displays the map of homicides included in the NBC 5 story which illustrates the wide dispersion of homicides throughout the City of Dallas, which is similar to the map included in the D Magazine stories on the same topic.  While the map provides a general illustration of the distribution of homicides, it lacks important information about the boundaries that define which city council districts are included in the South Dallas and non-South Dallas sectors.

I produced the map below (Figure 1b) which presents the current city council district boundaries and council person names to better illustrate the geographic distribution of homicides, especially when drawing conclusions about the concentration of such crimes between South Dallas and non-South Dallas districts.

Figure 1b:  Distribution of Homicides by Dallas City Council Districts (N = 161)

Neither of these two maps, however, display all of the homicides for 2019 since complete information was available only for 164 cases in Figure 1a and 161 cases in Figure 1b when these maps were produced. These missing cases, of course, could change the overall pattern of homicides displayed by these two maps.

In addition to the lack of geographic precision in previous news reports, I decided to verify the 2016 crime rates in South Dallas reported in Urban Science by the two social scientists. My statistical analysis of 2016 violent and property crime rates using Dallas Police Department data revealed that the South Dallas crime rates reported in the Urban Science article were highly inflated and not supported by the sources that were cited in the published study. My analysis also confirmed that violent and property crimes were distributed throughout the City of Dallas and not overly concentrated in South Dallas.[xii]

Why the contradictory picture of homicides in South Dallas?  The contradictory picture of homicides may result from several factors. First, it is likely that the rush to report changes in homicide rates that reinforce pre-existing perceptions of crime in South Dallas may be one factor that precludes a more careful analysis of crime patterns. Secondly, South Dallas is composed of several council districts whose crime patterns can vary considerably.  Thirdly, Dallas County – whose population consists mainly of the City of Dallas -- is among the top ten fastest growing counties in the U.S.[xiii], suggesting that an increase in the number of homicides could be a consequence of population growth as well.   

The consequences of inconsistent crime reporting are problematic for several reasons.  It is well known, for example, that the perception of high crime rates in urban communities has been a key factor in slowing their economic development.[xiv]  While some neighborhoods in urban communities may indeed show high crime rates, is it fair to stigmatize an entire community based on crime incidences in smaller neighborhoods?  Moreover, is it fair to stigmatize a community based on inaccurate or inflated crime rates?  Perhaps a closer look at crime patterns in the City of Dallas may help us to re-think what we currently know about crime rates in South Dallas.     

A closer look at the pattern of homicides in the City of Dallas challenges conventional thinking about crime. A more complete picture of 2019 homicides was obtained by accessing the Dallas Police Department’s NIBRS reports of crime activity dated as of 12-31-19.[xv]  Figure 2 below presents the distribution of the 207 homicides by council districts located in the South Dallas and non-South Dallas sectors of the city. From this chart, it is clear that a slight majority (56.0%) of the homicides occurred in the South Dallas districts, while less than half (44.0%) of the homicides occurred in the non-South Dallas districts.

Interestingly, the number of homicides varied greatly within the two sectors. For example, a higher number of homicides occurred in District 4 (n=34), District 7 (n=30), District 8 (n=23), District 2 (n-22), and District 10 (n=17).  In addition, several of the districts in the South Dallas sector revealed a relatively low number of homicides (District 1 (n=8), District 5 (n=11), and District 3 (n=10) when compared to some districts in the non-South Dallas sector.  Thus, individual districts in the non-South Dallas sector are also contributing to the overall number of 2019 homicides. However, what are the relative changes in the overall share of homicides since 2018 for the South Dallas and non-South Dallas sectors? This answer to this question is addressed by Figure 3 below. 

Figure 3 compared the change in the percent of total homicides between 2018 and 2019.  It is evident that the share of homicides in South Dallas districts declined from 66.5 percent in 2018 to 58.0 percent in 2019, while the share of homicides in non-South Dallas districts increased from 39.0 percent in 2018 to 47.0 percent in 2019. Thus, council districts in the South Dallas sector appear to be making progress in reducing their share of total homicides in 2019, while an increasing share of 2019 homicides has shifted to districts in the non-South Dallas sector – an important trend that should not be overlooked in future interventions by state and city leaders.

Figure 4 below examines changes in the number of homicides from 2018 to 2019 for each council district. First, the net change in homicides was considerably less (n=7) for the South Dallas districts when compared to the non-South Dallas districts (n=30).  It is particularly noteworthy that during this one-year period, three of the South Dallas districts showed decreases in the number of homicides, while most non-South Dallas districts showed increases in the number of homicides.    Indeed, only one non-South Dallas district (District 6) showed a decrease in the number of homicides.  Based on this analysis, it seems that the recent deployment of state troopers was misguided by the singular focus on the South Dallas community.

Lastly, I was curious about the geographic distribution of the 40 homicides that were previously reported for May of 2019 and used as justification by City leaders to invite DPS trooper support from Gov. Gregg Abbott.  In searching the same sources of police incidents used in this report, only 25 homicides were confirmed for May of 2019. Table 1 below summarizes the geographic distribution of these 25 homicides.

Table 1:  Distribution of Homicides for May 2019

District	No. Homicides
South Dallas
District 1	1
District 4	6
District 7	5
District 8	1
Subtotal	13
Non-South Dallas
District 6	3
District 9	3
District 10	1
District 11	2
District 12	2
District 14	1
Subtotal	12

 

As is readily apparent from Table 1, the number of homicides in the South Dallas and non-South Dallas sectors were nearly identical.  Consequently, one is left to wonder why the state troopers focused their intervention primarily on South Dallas.

Conclusion:  In summary, it seems that some improvement is needed in the manner that crime is analyzed as well as decisions that are based on these analyses.  In the case of social scientists, there is really no excuse for inflating crime statistics using unreliable sources.  Crime reports that lack geographic detail are likely to lead to misguided interventions, such as the state troopers that were sent to the South Dallas community that perhaps should have been directed to other non-South Dallas council districts that were experiencing relatively more increases in the number of homicides since 2018.

It might also be a good idea to recognize districts that show yearly progress in reducing the number of homicides or at least not showing any increases in the number of homicides.  Both journalists and social scientists need to exercise greater care in reporting crime trends in general, but particularly for communities like South Dallas whose quality of life has been negatively impacted by incomplete or inaccurate crime reports. Indeed, the sources of crime data used in this report are publicly available and not overly complex to analyze. 

The recent announcement by Chief Hall[xvi] about initiating a “predictive policing” plan offers some promise for reducing  crime by creating an intelligence-led policing unit that will “produce regular reports to forecast trends, identify patterns, and facilitate a more accurate picture of who is committing a crime and where….it will also generate a list of known offenders, active gang members, parolees, and sex offenders for each focus area.”  Some activists and community members, however, expressed skepticism and felt that the new plan will lead to racial profiling and more aggressive police tactics towards the victims of crime.

The predictive police plan, coupled with a more careful analysis of the geographic distribution of crime patterns, should help to direct interventions to the communities that show the greatest need – not just the usual suspects.

  

Reference Notes

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[i] Garcia, N. (2019, Dec. 20). Dallas has 200 murders in 2019.  Here’s what that means. The Dallas Morning News.  Accessed at https://www.dallasnews.com/news/crime/2019/12/20/dallas-has-had-200-murders-in-2019-heres-what-that-means/

[ii] Jaramillo, C.  (2019, June 7).  Texas Gov. Gregg Abbott announces he’s sending state troopers to Dallas to tackle violent crime. Dallas Morning News. Accessed at https://www.dallasnews.com/news/2019/06/08/texas-gov-greg-abbott-announces-he-s-sending-state-troopers-to-dallas-to-help-tackle-violent-crime/

[iii] Byrne, E. (2019, June 7).  Gov. Gregg Abbott deploys DPS to combat Dallas violent crime spike. The Texas Tribune. Access at https://www.texastribune.org/2019/06/07/Texas-governor-Greg-Abbott-DPS-Dallas-crime/

[iv] Jaramillo, C.  (2019, June 7). Texas Gov. Gregg Abbott announces he’s sending state troopers to Dallas to help tackle violet crime. The Dallas Morning News, Accessed at https://www.dallasnews.com/news/2019/06/08/texas-gov-greg-abbott-announces-he-s-sending-state-troopers-to-dallas-to-help-tackle-violent-crime/

[v] Perez, G. (2019, August 5). Are state troopers in South Dallas doing more harm than good?  Texas Standard,  Accessed at https://www.texasstandard.org/stories/are-state-troopers-in-south-dallas-doing-more-harm-than-good/

[vi] Jaramilllo, C. (2020, January 3). South Dallas man slain by DPS troopers after traffic stop had 16 gunshot wounds, autopsy shows.  The Dallas Morning News.  Accessed at https://www.dallasnews.com/news/crime/2020/01/04/south-dallas-man-slain-by-dps-troopers-after-traffic-stop-had-16-gunshot-wounds-autopsy-shows/

[vii] Ibid, Garcia N. (2019).

[viii] Crowe, J., Lacy, C., and Columbus, Y. (2019).  Barriers to food security and community stress in an urban food desert. Urban Science. Accessed at  https://www.mdpi.com/2413-8851/2/2/46

[ix] Wise, K. (2019, December 13). Dallas homicides are pretty much everywhere. D Magazine.  Accessed at https://www.dmagazine.com/frontburner/2019/12/dallas-homicides-are-pretty-much-everywhere/

[x] Shinneman, S. (2019, December 18). Explore this updated map of Dallas’ 2019 homicides.  D Magazine, December.  Accessed at https://www.dmagazine.com/frontburner/2019/12/explore-this-updated-map-of-dallas-2019-homicides/

[xi] Kathoff, K. Dallas homicides happening all over the city.  NBC 5 Dallas-Ft. Worth.  Accessed at  https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/local/dallas-homicides-happening-all-over-the-city/2271971/

[xii] Rincon, E.T. and Tiwari, C. (2019).  Construction of a Demand Metric for Supermarket Site Selection: A Case Study of South Dallas. Presentation at Applied Geography Conference, Charlotte NC, October 24, 2019

[xiii] Census Bureau, New Census Bureau estimates show counties in South and West lead nation in population growth. Release No. CB 19-55, Table 3 Top 10 Counties in Percentage Growth: 2017-2018.  Accessed at https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2019/estimates-county-metro.html

[xiv] Ibid, Rincon, E.T. and Tiwari, C. (2019). 

[xv] City Council Briefing, NIBRS Crime Briefing, Reported through Tuesday, December 31, 2019.  Accessed at http://www.dallaspolice.net/resources/CrimeReports/NIBRS%20Weekly%20Admin%20Council%20Report%20New.pdf

[xvi] Jaramillo, C. (2020, January 3).  ‘Predictive policing,’ part of Chief Hall’s crime plan, raises concerns.  The Dallas Morning News.  Accessed at https://www.dallasnews.com/news/crime/2020/01/04/predictive-policing-part-of-chief-halls-crime-plan-raises-concerns/