News Coverage of Food Insecurity in South Dallas Falls Short

Recent local news coverage about food deserts and community efforts to address food insecurity in areas like South Dallas have been informative, but to audiences that are more familiar with the topic of food insecurity, news coverage has been incomplete. As the following map illustrates, food deserts are disproportionately distributed in the southern and northwest areas of Dallas – a pattern that has changed minimally in past decades.  

Two recent stories in the Dallas Morning News provide a good example.  One story [i] covered local efforts to address the food insecurity problem by local community groups who would like to emulate the experience of a store in Waco, called Jubilee, that has served lower-income residents in an identified food desert.  The story provided valuable insights about the challenges faced by non-profits in creating a food store to serve their residents and the challenge of achieving profitability. 

The second story [ii] discussed a new grocery store – Southpoint Community Market -- founded by Cornerstone Baptist Church in South Dallas that is scheduled to open this summer on Martin Luther King Blvd.  The proposed store has a small footprint – 800 sq. ft. – and accompanied by a community kitchen and other sources of support provided by the church. The store received start-up funding by The Real Estate Council, City Square, St. Phillips School and Community Center, and Cornerstone Baptist Church – clear evidence that the store concept has merit in the eyes of these community stakeholders.

Unfortunately, this second story presented a rather grim picture of Southpoint’s likely success by Dr. Michael Fox, SMU Chair of the Marketing Department, who further described the grocery store concept as a “boutique” and “convenience” store that would require considerably more time than projected by the City of Dallas to achieve profitability. Despite this grim evaluation, Pastor Simmons of the Cornerstone Baptist Church remained optimistic that the store would eventually achieve profitability with continued support from its sponsors and increasing consumer demand. Interestingly, Dr. Fox was highly critical of the financial projections presented to the Dallas City Council, noting its many inaccuracies, but had few words about the business plan that had been prepared for store sponsors by the SMU Cox School of Business.

In a recent journal publication that I co-authored in Papers in Applied Geography, [iii] we developed an urban site selection model that identifies food deserts with adequate economic potential to sustain a mainstream supermarket of different sizes. The model is effective in identifying promising food deserts since it relies more on relevant economic indicators rather than the typical household income and social indicators employed by traditional site selection models.  What we discovered using our urban site selection model may surprise the skeptics.

Since the new Southpoint Community Market is located in zip code 75215 (denoted by an "S" on the map), we identified nine census tracts that were included in this zip code in order to describe the store’s potential trade area and customer profile– a step that was not evaluated in the business plan prepared by the SMU Cox School of Business.  We produced the two tables that follow below using the American Community Survey 2019 5-Year Estimates[iv] and SNAP payments reported by Texas Health & Human Services Commission.[v] We derived one variable – Annual Food-at-Home Expenditures – which incorporated the number of people living in a household and the average amount of weekly expenditures for food-at-home estimated in surveys sponsored by the Food Marketing Institute.[vi]   

In reviewing Table 1 Economic Profile, it is readily apparent that households in the 75215 zip code spent an estimated $71 million annually for food-at-home.  These annual expenditures were made possible by an aggregate household income of $606 million earned by all employed persons in 2019 and $10 million in SNAP payments received by qualified residents in 2021.  

Table 2 Demographic Profile shows that the race-ethnic representation in this zip code was predominantly Black (median = 60.2%), followed by non-Hispanic whites (median = 24.4%) and Hispanics (median = 12.9%).  However, the race-ethnic distribution and economic indicators varied considerably by census tract.

Why does this matter?  Because it provides decision makers an assessment of the potential market that is available to Southpoint Community Market.  The specific trade area for Southpoint was not identified in the business plan prepared by SMU, a critical first step for defining the potential sales and competition in a trade area. Moreover, the business plan did not include a survey of community residents that would provide a more specific estimate of demand for the store concept.

According to Dr. Fox with SMU, the City’s assessment of Southpoint’s profitability  “is based on flawed calculations” and that his back-of-the-envelope calculations indicated that Southpoint would need to sell about $80 a day per square foot of shelf space to make the city’s proposed profit margins. Perhaps his assessment is correct, especially given the store’s small size of 800 sq. ft. and its location. The City expected a profit of $34,000 a month by the store to justify reimbursing the investment made by The Real Estate Council.

Current information provided by the Food Marketing Institute reveals the following information about U.S. supermarkets in 2019 [vii] that might encourage a second opinion about Southpoint’s future success:

1.   The net profit after taxes was 1.0 percent.
2.   The weekly sales of U.S. supermarkets averaged $15.15 per square foot

Thus, assuming ideal market conditions for a 800 sq. ft. store, SouthPoint Community Market could achieve approximately $52,520 in monthly sales or $630,240 in annual sales.  These potential sales could be accelerated by expanding the size and inventory of the store and reaching more customers in its defined trade area. Assuming this sales scenario, a profit margin of 1.0 percent may be realistic, especially if consumer demand could be accurately documented.

In summary, the economic potential of urban communities like South Dallas is often overlooked or obscured by the absence of relevant economic data.  Our urban site selection model incorporates more relevant information and has further challenged perceptions of elevated crime rates by analyzing actual crime statistics from police department files. It is curious indeed that a market demand study for a supermarket in South Dallas has yet to be conducted despite several unsuccessful attempts by the City of Dallas to address food insecurity. 

Given the common practice of supermarket redlining that has been evident in North Texas for several decades, it does not seem unreasonable to expect news reporters and experts to provide a more balanced analysis of supermarket potential in urban areas like South Dallas, especially when community advocates and sponsors are struggling to remediate the negative consequences of supermarket redlining practices.    

 

Reference Notes

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[i] Dand, S. (2021 May 10).  Waco store fills void, with help.  Accessed at https://edition.pagesuite.com

[ii] Dand, S. (2021 May 6). Cornerstone Baptist Church is launching a grocery store to address food insecurity in South Dallas. Accessed at https://www.dallasnews.com/news/2021/05/06/cornerstone-baptist-church-is-launching-a-grocery-store-to-address-food-insecurity-in-south-dallas/

[iii] Rincon, E.T. and Tiwari, C. (2020 March 23).  Demand metric for supermarket site selection: A case study. Papers in Applied Geography, Accessed at https://doi.org/10.1080/23754931.2020.1712555

[iv] American Community Survey 2019 5-Year Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau. Accessed at https://data.census.gov/cedsci/

[v] Texas Health and Human Services (2021 April).  Month End SNAP Food Benefits Cases and Eligible Individuals by County - March 2021 Benefit Month. Accessed at https://hhs.texas.gov/about-hhs/records-statistics/data-statistics/supplemental-nutritional-assistance-program-snap-statistics

[vi] Food Marketing Institute (2021). Trended Weekly Household Grocery Expenses,  FMI U.S. Grocery Shopper Trends, 2021. Special table provided by FMI Research Director Steve Markenson.

[vii] Food Marketing Institute (2021) Supermarket Facts. Accessed at https://www.fmi.org/our-research/supermarket-facts

Texas Governor Gregg Abbott: Creating Crises as a Political Strategy

Texas has received considerable attention lately for experiencing back-to-back crises – the energy crisis that resulted over 50 deaths and significant damage to the state’s infrastructure;  a second crisis that is creating mass confusion among Texans by lifting the mask mandate; and a third crisis by falsely claiming that the recent surge of migrants at the Texas border will accelerate the spread of COVID-19 into in the future.  Interestingly, what these “crises” have in common is that they have been generated as a direct consequence of Gov. Abbott’s poor leadership.  Let’s review the facts.

The Energy Crisis: In the case of the recent energy crisis, it is the general consensus of energy experts that the breakdown of the state’s energy providers resulted directly from the state’s inaction to require energy system providers to winterize their equipment in preparation for extreme weather conditions. Pat Wood, a former chair of Texas’ Public Utility Commission testified Thursday at a Senate hearing that the misery suffered last month as blackouts left millions of Texans freezing in the dark for days could have been averted — if the state and its utilities had heeded a decade of advice to prepare for extreme weather.[1]. Federal regulators warned state lawmakers a decade ago that Texas needed to weatherize its power plants and grid.  In fact, in its 2020/2021 Winter Reliability Assessment, the North American Electric Reliability Corp (NERC) warned of:  

“…the potential for extreme generation resource outages in ERCOT due to severe weather in winter and summer, and the potential need for grid operators to employ operating mitigations or energy emergency alerts to meet peak demand.”

While most of the members of the Public Utilities Commission have resigned, they were appointed by Gov. Abbott. Rather than accept some responsibility for the crisis, However, Gov. Abbott opted to shift blame to the renewable energy sector, which was widely disputed by energy experts.

The COVID-19 Mask Mandate Crisis:  On March 2, 2021 Gov. Abbott announced that the state mandate requiring masks was lifted, thus increasing the capacity of all businesses and facilities in the state to 100 percent. The announcement was met with considerable rejection by the medical community and created considerable confusion among Texas residents and business establishments. 

In Gov. Abbott’s judgment, Texans had made sufficient progress in terms of recoveries, vaccinations, reduced hospitalizations, and safe practices related to COVID-19 that justified relaxing the mask requirement.  However, recent statistics by Johns Hopkins University  [2] show that Texas has one of the lowest vaccination rates at 9 percent and a high vaccine positivity rate of 13.4 percent.  In addition, the Texas Department of Health reported that Hispanic mortalities from COVID-19 were four times higher than the rate for whites, while Black mortality rates were twice as high as the rate of whites. [3]    In a surprise action, Gov. Abbott also threatened to block the distribution of vaccines allocated to Dallas County because local public officials were planning to target vaccines to the more vulnerable Black and Latino zip codes. [4]  Gov. Abbott’s indifference to these mounting mortalities has created a second crisis for Texas Latinos and Blacks who already experienced greater exposure to COVID-19 due to their jobs, housing arrangements, and limited access to vaccination sites.  

In anticipation of criticism that the lifting of the mask mandate would lead to increases in COVID-19 infections, hospitalizations and mortalities, Gov. Abbott addressed this dilemma by creating a third crisis by falsely claiming that the surge of migrants at the Texas border would lead to a rise in the spread of COVID-19. 

Migrant Surge Crisis: Gov. Abbott recently accused the Biden administration of callously releasing sick migrants into Texas and increasing the spread of the virus.  As Gov. Abbott commented on a conservative talk radio program recently: “We’ve got our own challenge with COVID-19….only to be challenged with the influx of people coming in from the border who could be increasing the spread of COVID-19. The Biden administration must stop this illegal immigration program they’ve opened.”  [5]

In response to Gov. Abbott’s new “crisis,” White House press secretary Jen Psaki countered that Gov. Abbott was trying to deflect attention from the catastrophic power outages that left many Texans freezing for several days and resulted in many deaths.  Psaki also pointed out that Abbott has refused federal funds that Texas, local governments and nonprofits could use to test all migrants for the virus. Several public officials in South Texas confirmed that migrants entering the U.S. through their border were routinely quarantined and tested for COVID-19 prior to entry and release. 

Historically, the flow of migrants seeking refuge in the U.S. has been a challenge to several past administrations and is not a new phenomenon. During the Trump administration, many asylum seekers were denied entry into the U.S. and forced to wait in Mexico during the application process for asylum. Also, the Trump administration closed many of the organizations that had the responsibility of matching migrant children with families in the U.S. Consequently, what appears as a recent “surge” includes thousands of families that were denied entry into the U.S. by the policies of the Trump administration.   

In creating the fictitious crisis of immigrants spreading COVID-19, Gov. Abbott is following the Trump playbook for the “immigration and crime crisis” that was effective in convincing nearly half of Americans that immigrants make crime worse. However, studies addressing this issue in Texas [6] and throughout the U.S. have confirmed that immigrants commit fewer crimes, on average, than native-born Americans [7,8]. Figure 1 below shows the results of a large-scale analysis relating violent crime rates and growth of the immigrant population in 200 U.S. metropolitan areas.

Figure 1: Immigrant Population and Violent Crime by U.S. Metro Areas 

Note: Study analyzed violent crime rates and immigration levels in 200 U.S. metropolitan areas

Following are the conclusions reached by the study investigators who represented four universities:

“In 136 metro areas, almost 70 percent of those studied, the immigrant population increased between 1980 and 2016 while crime stayed stable or fell. The number of areas where crime and immigration both increased was much lower — 54 areas, slightly more than a quarter of the total. The 10 places with the largest increases in immigrants

Clearly, fabricating a crisis to generate hysteria can be politically beneficial to public officials, especially during a time when many Americans readily embrace the various distortions of reality promoted routinely by public officials.  Ethically speaking, however, the voting public deserves to know the truth and reject the hysteria that often accompanies political campaigns.

Gov. Abbott, it is time for you to show some courage and accept responsibility for your poor judgment in these areas.   Your administration presided over the decisions regarding the energy crisis that led to the deaths of many Texans and caused significant damage to the state’s infrastructure. Your administration blocked the allocation of vaccines to vulnerable Black and Latino communities in Dallas County. And your administration lifted the mask mandate despite objections by medical experts, an action that is likely to increase the mortality rates of Texas Blacks and Latinos.   

In planning for the Texas gubernatorial race that begins in 2022, let’s hope that voters will remember the series of “crises” that Gov. Abbott has manufactured to shift attention away from his failure in leadership.  

Reference Notes

[1] Gillman, T.J. and Thompson, E. (2021, March 11). U.S. Senate hearing focuses on Texas’ overdue need for grid upgrades after Arctic blast triggered blackouts.  The Dallas Morning News, Accessed at: https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2021/03/11/after-texas-blackouts-senate-probes-need-to-prepare-grid-for-extreme-weather/?outputType=amp 

[2] John Hopkins University Coronavirus Resource Center,  Accessed at: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/region/us/texas

[3] Morris, A. (2021, February 2).  Report highlights disparities. The Dallas Morning News,   https://www.pressreader.com/usa/the-dallas-morning-news/20210202/281522228766766

[4]  Krause, K. and Morris, A. (2021, February 21). Texas officials cut number of COVID-19 shots for Dallas residents, county says. The Dallas Morning News, Accessed at:  https://www.dallasnews.com/news/2021/02/20/texas-officials-cut-number-of-covid-19-shots-for-dallas-county-residents/

[5]  Gillman, T. J. (2021, March 3). Abbott-Biden tilt continues. The Dallas Morning News, Washington Bureau, Accessed at https://edition.pagesuite.com/popovers/dynamic_article_popover.aspx?artguid=80998d0b-9ca9-4aa4-b5d6-6bb7a9150f6b&appid=3565

[6] Nowraster, A. (2018, February 26). Criminal immigrants in Texas.  The CATO Institute, Accessed at: https://www.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/pubs/pdf/irpb-4-updated.pdf

[7] Kurbin, C., Ousey, G.C., Reid, L., and Adelman, R. (2017, February 11).   Does immigration lead to more crime?  Not according to data. Newsweek, Accessed at:  https://sports.yahoo.com/news/does-immigration-lead-more-crime-101002691.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAGmvQhce8atAQZLKo9yOU-zQP_Hj8rmKABZIl8UeaEeGDftMTccfpJLMG1Qgv_nhl4B6beW7ihnkKrzJhS-EcxKS6wILtLXj7HUH1c1-iUz50sZvS8yASNWwOuL0siZgRcRN1gBtFNR1nIgPZPOg9p5XH_bedrESZSlfcsgIYAgU

[8]  Flagg, A. (2018, March 30). The myth of the criminal immigrant. The Marshall Project. Accessed at:  https://www.themarshallproject.org/2018/03/30/the-myth-of-the-criminal-immigrant

For Texas Latinos and Blacks, wearing a mask is a life or death issue.

 

For a number of reasons, Texas Latinos and Blacks would be wise to reject Gov. Abbott’s recent announcement to lift the mask mandate and open up all businesses.

In the first place, the announcement has stunned medical experts, local public officials and various other stakeholders who have been trying to promote the use of masks to mitigate the spread of the virus. For example, Dr. Anthony Fauci recently described the decision as “inexplicable” while Dallas County Judge Clay Jenkins called it “unfortunate.” Public officials in South Texas called it “hypocritical.” With little exception, the decisions by the Texas governor as well as several other states to lift the mask mandate was considered premature and a threat to the progress made thus far in vaccination rates. In my opinion, Gov. Abbott’s decision presents a potential danger that is likely to accelerate the COVID-19 death rates of Texas Latinos and Blacks.

Secondly, Gov. Abbott has been acquiring a habit for poor decision making. For example, Gov. Abbott’s decision on the mask mandate follows other questionable decision making that allowed energy providers the option of weatherizing their equipment for extreme weather conditions.  An estimated 40 deaths have been traced to the energy crisis thus far, while damage to the state’s water supplies and infrastructure has been devastating to many communities.  Rather than take responsibility, Gov. Abbott opted to blame the non-renewable energy sector for the crisis -- a tactic that was roundly rejected by energy experts. Texas lawmakers are still struggling to find a solution to the devastation caused by the energy crisis and the best path forward for ensuring that the crisis is not repeated.

Thirdly, although national improvements in COVID-19 elated hospitalizations and mortalities have been made recently, a recent picture of Texas COVID-19 mortality rates are alarming and should encourage Latinos and Blacks to reject Gov. Abbott’s recent order to lift the mask mandate.  As shown by Table 1 below, Hispanics (133.9 rate) were four times more likely to die from COVID-19 than whites (35.2 rate), while Blacks (72.5 rate) were twice as likely to die from COVID-19 than whites.  

Table 1:  COVID-19 Mortality Rates in Texas by Race-Ethnicity

Gov. Abbott recently launched an extensive media campaign to announce his decision to lift the mask mandate as the best way to revive the Texas economy, but appears indifferent to the differential impact that this decision will have on Latino and Black COVID-19 mortality rates.  Instead, Gov. Abbott is now blaming President Biden for allowing new migrants to spread the virus in the U.S. as reflected in a Dallas Morning News story:

“The Biden Administration is recklessly releasing hundreds of illegal immigrants who have COVID into Texas communities” [1]

 

Despite this claim, Gov. Abbott has failed to accept federal assistance to test migrants entering Texas for the virus. Public officials and community organizations in South Texas that routinely process migrants for entry into the U.S. countered that they quarantine and test migrants for COVID-19, and do not allow entry of any migrants that test positive for the virus. They felt that Gov. Abbott was using inflammatory language about immigrants that fuels hate crimes such as the recent incident where a lone gunman killed 23 people and wounded dozen more in an El Paso Walmart.  The shooter was motivated by the desire to “stop the Hispanic invasion of Texas.”

Lastly, Latinos and Blacks should not be blamed entirely on a lack of interest in getting vaccinated as they have  experienced barriers in accessing vaccination sites in Texas, which have been often located in wealthier white communities.[2], [3].   In addition, Gov. Abbott acted in bad faith when he threatened to withhold vaccines allocated to Dallas County when public officials announced a program to expand vaccinations to zip codes that included vulnerable populations like Blacks and Latinos. [4] The impact of these practices on vaccination rates has been noteworthy.  A recent report by the Kaiser Family Foundation examining vaccination rates in 35 states [5] revealed the following about Texas (see Table 2 below):

·       Only 7 percent of Blacks were vaccinated which was lower than their share (12%) of the population.

·       Only 23 percent of Hispanics were vaccinated which was lower than their share (40%) of the population.

·       The percentage of whites that were vaccinated (51%) was higher than their share (41%) of the population.

Across the 35 states included in this report, the vaccination rate among Whites was over two and a half times higher than the rate for Hispanic people (13% vs. 5%) and nearly twice as high as the rate for Black people (13% vs. 7%).

Table 2:  Race-Ethnicity of Texas COVID-19 Vaccinations, Cases, and Deaths, March 3, 2021

Race/Ethnicity	Percent of Vaccinations	Percent of Cases	Percent of Deaths	Percent of Total Population (2019)
Black	7%	19%	10%	12%
Hispanic	23%	41%	46%	40%
Asian	7%	1%	2%	5%
White	51%	38%	42%	41%
Missing	12%	1%	-	2%
Total	100%	100%	100	100%

, March 3, 20213, 2021

In my opinion, Latino and Black business, civic and religious leaders should launch an aggressive campaign to counter Gov. Abbott’s recent decision about the mask mandate and make Latino and Black residents aware that they are likely to face an increased risk of exposure and death from the relaxation of the mask requirements.  Latino and Black Texans should be encouraged to reject Gov. Abbott’s mandate and show continued discipline in wearing the mask. Of course, we all die eventually but it makes little sense to accelerate our death because our governor lacked the will to continue the mask mandate a bit longer as recommended by the medical experts.  

 

Reference Notes

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[1] Thompson, E. and Corchado, A. Gov. Abbott blames immigrants for spreading COVID in rhetoric that advocates dismiss as xenophobic. Dallas Morning News, Accessed at  https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2021/03/05/gov-abbott-blames-immigrants-for-spreading-covid-in-what-advocates-dismiss-as-rhetoric-at-its-best/

[2] Morris, A.  (2021, February 2).  Report highlights disparities – but proposals targeting effects on minorities months away.  The Dallas Morning News, Accessed at: https://www.pressreader.com/usa/the-dallas-morning-news/20210202/281522228766766

[3] Goodnough, A. and Hoffman, J.  The wealthy are getting more vaccinations, even in poorer neighborhoods. New York Times, Accessed at:  https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/02/health/white-people-covid-vaccines-minorities.html

[4]  Choi, J. (2021, Jan. 21).  Texas threatened to reduce vaccine supply to Dallas County over plan to focus on 'vulnerable' ZIP codes.  The Hill.   Accessed at: https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/535294-texas-threatened-to-reduce-vaccine-supply-to-dallas-county-over-plan-to

[5] Ndugga, N., Pham,O., Hill, L., Artiga, S., and Mengistu, S. (2021, March 3).  Latest data on COVID-19 vaccinations Race/Ethnicity. Kaiser Family Foundation, Accessed at:  https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/issue-brief/latest-data-on-covid-19-vaccinations-race-ethnicity/

 

Pharmacies, Not Local Public Officials, May Ensure Race Equity in Vaccination Rates

The release of a long-awaited report on Texas COVID-19 facilities by race-ethnicity was shocking.[1] Not because our community was unaware of race-ethnic disparities in vaccination rates but rather the large size of these disparities in Texas.  As the numbers for age-adjusted death rates per 100,000 revealed, Hispanics were nearly four times more likely to die (133.9) from the coronavirus than whites (35.2), while Blacks (72.5) were twice as likely to die as whites.  Asian death rates (33.3) were slightly lower than whites.

Texas State Rep. Shawn Thierry along with other lawmakers have been advocating for the release of this report in order to mobilize statewide efforts to target vulnerable groups like Blacks and Hispanics, although state officials have been reluctant to act more aggressively. In response to the release of this report, Rep. Thierry explained that the findings underscored the need to target resources to communities of color, especially since other data shows that white residents are getting vaccinated at higher rates than Blacks and Latinos. [2]

Given the high death rates for Latinos and Blacks, it is especially surprising that Texas state officials recently threatened to withhold vaccine doses that were allocated to Dallas County if they proceeded with a plan to target vaccinations to zip codes that included higher numbers of vulnerable Black and Latino residents.

Indeed, efforts to block targeted interventions to vulnerable communities contradicted recommendations by the National Academy of Sciences that recommended that “priority be given to ‘people who are considered to be the most disadvantaged or the worst off’ as defined by measures such as the Social Vulnerability Index created by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.” [3]

The announcement that the Biden administration will begin shipping vaccines to pharmacies throughout the U.S. was a major sight of relief for two reasons.  First, it minimizes the involvement of local politicians in the equitable distribution of the vaccines who have largely bungled the job in its communications, registration and distribution – resulting in higher vaccination rates of higher-income whites than lower-income Blacks and Latinos.  Texas politicians will also have less influence in threatening to withhold vaccines to jurisdictions that want to more aggressively vaccinate the more vulnerable communities of color.

Secondly, pharmacies are much easier to access for the elderly, Blacks and Latinos who encounter more barriers in registrations and obtaining vaccinations.  The Mega Centers are innovative in terms of providing a centralized location to vaccinate thousands of residents more rapidly; however, not all residents can travel to these Mega Centers or wait in line for hours during cold weather without access to restrooms or food.  The distribution of vaccines by pharmacies will not solve all the problems experienced thus far but should lead to significant improvements.

Given the gravity of the higher death rates for Texas Latinos and Blacks, it is disturbing to learn that Texas state officials are delaying any targeted interventions for these groups for several months.  Even more disturbing is that state officials threatened to withhold vaccine doses to Dallas County for attempting to follow the science by targeting the more vulnerable groups of Black and Latino zip codes.  The State of Texas deserves no praise for their callous response to the lives of its Black and Latino residents.

     

Reference Notes

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[1] Morris, A.  (2021, February 2).  Report highlights disparities – but proposals targeting effects on minorities months away.  The Dallas Morning News, Accessed at: 

[2] Ibid.

[3] Cited in Warren, R.C. D.D.Sl, Dr.PH.H., M.Div., Forrow M.D., L., Hodge Sr., D.Min., Ph.D., and Truog, M.D., R.D.  (2020, November 26).  Trustworthiness before trust – COVID-19 vaccine trials and the Black community.  The New England Journal of Medicine.  Accessed at: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2030033      

Why Do Dallas-Area Public Officials Keep Fumbling the Ball on Programs Targeted to Multicultural Communities?

 Let’s give credit where credit is due. Dallas County and City of Dallas public officials have not won any accolades recently for decisions regarding programs that impact the quality of life for its multicultural community. The recent fiasco surrounding the distribution of the COVID-19 vaccine is the most recent example, but two other recent programs also come to mind – the Census 2020 Campaign and the lingering presence of food deserts in South Dallas.  As I will argue, these programs have one important thing in common that has posed a barrier to their success: the absence of quality research to guide decisions regarding public programs that are targeted to Black and Latino residents.

In 2020, I published a book entitled “The Culture of Research” that discusses the importance of conducting sound research in culturally and linguistically diverse communities and the consequences to decision making when such studies are missing or poorly conducted. Following are some insights derived from this book that should help the reader understand how sound research with multicultural communities could have produced improved outcomes in the management of the local COVID-19 vaccination program, the Census 2020 Campaign, and solving the mystery surrounding the persistence of food deserts in South Dallas.

COVID-19 Vaccine Awareness, Registration and Distribution

The local confusion and mismanagement associated with the COVID-19 vaccine distribution can be traced originally to the absence of guidance and transparency at the federal level, and the related decision by the previous administration to allow states to define their own independent strategies with a minimal financial support from the federal government.

Nonetheless, the COVID-19 vaccine distribution dilemma in Dallas County, Texas presents a good case study on decisions that public officials in urban communities should not make.   Indeed, the series of inconsistent and questionable decisions resulted in considerable public confusion and frustration with vaccine registrations, availability and distribution. Some of these missteps included the following:

• Contradictory messages from county and city public officials;
• Over-reliance on an Internet strategy to inform and register residents, many who lacked online access or own a computer, or were not comfortable with technology;
• Inconsistent support in Spanish and other languages;
• Placement of testing and vaccination sites in higher income while providing limited access in the more vulnerable areas; and  
• Transportation barriers that prevented some residents to travel to testing or vaccination sites.

These missteps have resulted in higher numbers of white, higher-income residents getting vaccinated rather than the targeted, more vulnerable Black and Latino residents in the lower-income areas of South and Northwest Dallas. 

Figure 1:

Figure 1, published recently in The Dallas Morning News, clearly illustrates this pattern: [1]  whites comprised 62.2 percent of all persons vaccinated while representing 28.2% of the County population; Hispanics represented 19.5 percent of those vaccinated while comprising 40.8% of the population; and Blacks comprised 10.6 percent of those vaccinated although they represented 22.3% of the county population.  These disparities persist despite recent efforts by public officials to communicate more directly with civic leaders, churches and community organizations to improve vaccination rates for Blacks and Latinos in the South and Northwest part of Dallas.

The problem associated with vaccine distribution in communities of color is deeply concerning because they are the most likely to experience the more serious medical consequences from the coronavirus.  Importantly, these missteps in decision making could have been avoided with communications that were better coordinated by public officials and engagement of experts with significant experience engaging multicultural persons. 

The decision to use an Internet vehicle for the vaccination campaign is very likely the reason that white, higher income residents continue to be more successful in getting vaccinated. Although some public officials supported the idea of targeting zip codes in South Dallas that included some of the most vulnerable Black and Latino residents, the Texas State Health Department[2] immediately issued a threat to withhold vaccine doses allocated to Dallas County if the targeting was implemented.  This threat was a direct contradiction to recommendations by the National Academy of Sciences that support vaccine community intervention programs that are targeted to the most vulnerable communities. [3]  Thus, Dallas County and City of Dallas public officials learned the hard way that launching a public vaccination program in linguistically and culturally diverse communities require less reliance on technology and more reliance on outreach efforts that take the vaccines to the residents.  Ironically, while the state threatened to withhold vaccine doses if local officials employed a zip-code targeting approach in South Dallas, the use of an Internet strategy as the primary form of communication accomplished the same outcome by vaccinating higher numbers of white, higher-income residents who resided in the northern parts of Dallas County.

South Dallas Food Deserts

Why have mainstream supermarkets avoided South Dallas food deserts that are populated by lower-income Blacks and Latinos?  [4] This question inspired me to conduct a geospatial analysis using crime, demographic and supermarket expenditure data to examine the common reasons cited by supermarket executives to explain the avoidance of communities like South Dallas – such as high crime, low population density, lower household median income and insufficient food expenditures.  The study revealed that crime patterns were often inflated by previous investigators and news stories, and that the annual food-at-home expenditures in several food deserts in South Dallas were adequate to sustain the annual sales of a mainstream supermarket.  Flawed crime analyses, stereotypes of urban retail, and an apparent disdain for Black and Latino customers appeared to drive site selection decisions in South Dallas.

Over the past two decades, the City has floundered millions of taxpayer dollars on ill- conceived investments that failed to produce positive changes in the supermarket options for this community. Worst yet, a market demand study of community residents – a traditional practice to measure supermarket opportunities -- has never been conducted in South Dallas. Such a study would have provided supermarket and site selection executives the statistical evidence needed for an investment decision. In the meantime, South Dallas residents will be forced to continue shopping outside of their community for healthy, affordable food or visit the less desirable dollar stores.  Once City public officials decide that the South Dallas community is deserving of a high-quality supermarket experience, a professional, high quality market demand study is the best approach for making this a reality.  If supermarket redlining practices continue in South Dallas despite solid evidence of its retail potential, it might be a good idea to recruit a supermarket chain from outside of Dallas County or Texas that reveals a greater interest in serving Black and Latino consumers in urban communities. 

The Census 2020 Campaign

In January 2020, Dallas County and the City of Dallas funded a $1.9 million Census 2020 Campaign to provide a comprehensive strategy to boost response rates in hard-to-count communities that were populated by lower-income Blacks and Latinos. The team selected to conduct the campaign submitted a report summarizing the multitude of campaign activities that they conducted from February to August of 2020 to target these HTC communities.  To monitor progress on this campaign, I produced maps on a monthly basis that illustrated the cumulative self-response rates by census tracts that were provided by the Census Bureau.  Figure 2 below shows that the final self-response rates reported by the Census Bureau were decidedly lower in the southern and northwest parts of the city where HTC Blacks and Latinos resided.  In fact, the table of Overall Self-Response Rates indicates that Dallas County ended with one of the lowest self-response rates (63.9%) compared to other large Texas counties.  Consequently, the Census Bureau was required to deploy many more field interviewers in order to minimize the potential population under-count, an especially difficult task during the pandemic.  Despite its best intentions, the Census 2020 Campaign funded by the County and City appeared to fall short of its intended goal in hard-to-count communities and will likely lead to the loss of millions of federal dollars for local programs. Although the pandemic posed a barrier to response rates during this period, the burden on Dallas County was likely similar for all other counties considered here.

                 Figure 2: Dallas County 2020 Self-Response Rates by Census Tract and City Service Area

Part of the challenge in completing the Census 2020 questionnaires can be traced to the reliance that the Census Bureau placed on using an online survey as their major data collection strategy. In past censuses, the Census Bureau relied primarily on a mail questionnaire, while data collection for the annual American Community Survey has utilized a mixed mode strategy that included mail questionnaires, telephone interviews, personal interviews and online surveys.  Not surprisingly, Black and Latino respondents to the American Community Survey have opted for telephone and personal interviews more often than whites or Asians, while online surveys were the least chosen option.

Figure 3 below presents the percentage of Dallas County households that completed the Census 2020 using an online survey.  The map presents the cumulative Internet self-response rates for the 2020 Census as of October 28, 2020.  Of the seven City Service Areas (CSAs), the Central, Southeast, South Central, Southwest and Northwest CSAs are populated primarily by lower income Blacks and Latinos. It is clear that these CSAs included census tracts (highlighted in red) with the lowest online response rates, while the numerous other census tracts (highlighted in yellow) showed modest online response rates.  The highest online return rates were realized for census tracts in the northeast and north central CSAs that were populated primarily by white, higher-income residents.

Throughout 2020, public officials in Dallas County and City of Dallas were aware of the poor performance of the Internet to encourage poor Blacks and Latinos to complete the 2020 Census.  Why then was the Internet the main vehicle used for communications related to COVID-19 vaccine awareness, registration and distribution?  Good research and multicultural expertise would have been beneficial to decision makers during this period.

Based on my past 45 years of experience in conducting surveys of multicultural populations, it is my opinion that the Census 2020 Campaign sponsored by Dallas County and City of Dallas was not guided by the best expertise regarding the strategies for successfully engaging multicultural population segments in surveys and the biennial census.  If it had been, Dallas County might have experienced a higher ranking in Census self-response rates in comparison to the many Texas counties that did not allocate any funding for a Census 2020 campaign.

Some Concluding Thoughts 

The challenges facing public officials to ensure a satisfactory quality of life for all community residents have become more complex and will require careful planning using the best expertise in understanding and engaging culturally and linguistically diverse communities.  Public officials must resist the temptation to take the path of least resistance by overlooking or dismissing the need for solid research to guide decisions that impact the quality of life of multicultural residents. Dallas County and City of Dallas public officials learned the hard way that engaging culturally and linguistically diverse residents is a complex task that requires multicultural expertise and support from community organizations. As the population of urban areas like Dallas County continues to grow and evolve demographically, the challenges to respond more effectively to important community needs and events will become more challenging.  Let’s hope that public officials will be better prepared to respond.

  

Reference Notes

[1] Garcia, N. and Jimenez, J. (2021, Jan. 28).  White Dallas residents outpace Blacks, Hispanics in registering for COVID vaccine.  Dallas Morning News, Accessed at:  https://www.dallasnews.com/news/public-health/2021/01/29/white-dallas-residents-outpace-blacks-hispanics-in-registering-for-covid-vaccine/

[2] Choi, J. (2021, Jan. 21).  Texas threatened to reduce vaccine supply to Dallas County over plan to focus on 'vulnerable' ZIP codes.  The Hill.   Accessed at: https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/535294-texas-threatened-to-reduce-vaccine-supply-to-dallas-county-over-plan-to

[3] National Academy of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine (2020). Framework for equitable allocation of COVID-19 vaccine. Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press.

[4] Rincón, E.T. and Tiwari, C. (2020, March 23). Demand metric for supermarket site selection:
 A case study. Papers in Applied Geography,  Accessed at: https://doi.org/10.1080/23754931.2020.1712555