Mass Deportations: Time for a Re-fresh on Immigration Facts

  

It comes as no surprise that the Republicans for Trump are aggressively amplifying the campaign promise of deporting 15 million illegal immigrants if he is elected President – a strategy that resonates well with Republican voters since it blames illegal immigrants for such hot button issues as rising crime rates, taking jobs from American citizens, and generally destroying the U.S. economy.  Recent polls show that immigration remains a top concern among American voters, suggesting that voters are willing to accept Trump’s allegations about undocumented immigrants as factual.  When vice-presidential candidate JD Vance was asked in a recent interview just how this mass deportation would be implemented, his response was limited to stopping illegal entry at the border as a starting point but did not elaborate any details about the enormous undertaking of deporting millions of families residing in the U.S.  Past history points to three likely outcomes:  (a) setting up concentration camps for undocumented families, similar to the Japanese experience during World War II, (b) separation of families at the Texas border where many children were not returned to their families, or (c) deporting families to countries experiencing considerable violence. The hysteria related to mass deportations may be influencing perceptions of the Trump campaign.

Several recent polls suggest that the tide is turning in favor of Kamala Harris, an unexpected change that may influence the willingness of Trump supporters to embrace the idea of mass deportations. Consider the following:

·        Recent polls of registered voters revealed that Harris has a consistent edge over Trump ranging from 4- 5 percent. Indeed, compared to last July, Harris (60%) has almost doubled her support by Democratic voters compared to Biden (34%), while support for Trump by Republican voters changed by only 3 percent since last July.

·       Support for Harris has also increased among Independent voters whose support since last July has increased by 11 percent compared to just 4 percent for Trump.

·       Importantly, one recent poll of Latino voters by Siena College revealed strong support for Harris at 57 percent with support for Trump lagging far behind at 38 percent – a substantial improvement from previous polls of Latino voters.  The recent endorsement of Harris by the League of Latino United Latin American Citizens (LULAC) could be helpful as well.

·       Trump stated in a recent interview at the National Association of Black Journalists convention that “there’s an invasion of people coming into the country, and the Black population is affected most by that.” The degree to which Black voters believe this assertion is unknown, although it underscores the need for the Harris campaign to publicly challenge this statement.  

·       While national polls between 2016 to 2024 show that Black support for Trump had been steadily increasing, a recent poll of Black male registered voters by HIT Strategies in key states showed that 66 percent planned to vote for Harris while only 17 percent planned to vote for Trump.  Black voters supporting Trump felt that they were left behind by Biden on social issues and policy failures.

·       A more recent poll conducted by YouGov for CBS immediately after the Democratic Convention revealed decidedly higher support among Black voters for Harris (82%) compared to Trump (17%), and increased support among Hispanic voters for Harris (58%) versus Trump (41%). 

·       In an apparent sign of desperation, Trump’s campaign has even created a fake ad using AI showing that Taylor Swift supports Trump – which Taylor Swift quickly denied.

Interestingly, these trends point to a potential window of opportunity for Democrats to give an additional boost to the Harris campaign,  especially in states like Texas, California, New York and others that include large numbers of Latino and Black voters.  Indeed, the additional boost provided by Latino and Black voters could make a substantial difference in a close race.

The extra boost could happen by more clearly defining to voters that, instead of a threat to the U.S. quality of life, immigrants represent a valuable asset.  This extra boost could be accomplished by encouraging journalists to (a) to conduct more thorough fact checks about the falsehoods related to immigrants and (b) reminding voters of the significant contributions that immigrants have made to the U.S. quality of life.

Fact Checking the Falsehoods

News stories often allow the demonizing of immigrants to continue with minimal efforts devoted  to challenge the factual basis for these falsehoods. Coincidentally, Trump is now using border crossings in his rallies to falsely claim credit for the lowest border crossings before he left office. By assertively challenging these falsehoods, audiences may reject or re-consider embracing statements that demonize immigrants.  Following are three falsehoods that should receive immediate attention:

·       Allegation: Border crossings by illegal immigrants continue to increase and bring many criminals and drugs into the U.S.

Fact Check:  According to a recent report from the U.S. Custom and Border Protection (See Figure 1 below), border encounters decreased substantially over the past fiscal year from 240,932 in October 2023 to 104,116 in July 2024 – a 77 percent decrease.  Compared to FY 2023 (dark blue line), this trend reflects a substantial improvement for FY 2024. Credit for this decrease is given to the Biden administration executive actions to shut off access to the U.S. asylum system for migrants who enter illegally and the Mexican government efforts to tighten enforcement at the border.

Figure 1

Source:  U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) Encounters  by Fiscal Years 2023 and 2024 (YTD), Accessed on August 17, 2024.

·       Allegation:  Illegal immigrants into the U.S. include many criminals that are leading to rising crime rates.

Fact Check:  The Cato Institute is recognized for its expertise in the study of crime rates and immigration status.  In their 2018 analysis, the investigators concluded that the facts about immigrant crime rates have established over numerous studies that immigrants do not increase local crime rates, are less likely to cause crime and less likely to be incarcerated than their native-born. In their 2024 study of illegal immigration and homicide rates in Texas, investigators concluded that native-born Texans had a higher homicide rate that was 26 percent higher than illegal immigrants. Over the ten years from 2013 to 2022, the homicide conviction rate in Texas for illegal immigrants was 2.2 per 100,000, compared to 3.0 per 100,000 for native-born Americans and 1.2 per 100,000 legal immigrants.   The state of Texas is one of few states that uniquely keeps data on the immigration status of those arrested and convicted of crimes.  The Texas data may or may not generalize to other states.

·       Allegation:   Immigrants are taking jobs away from Americans.

Fact Check:  In a recent analysis in 2024 by Axios.com, the investigators reported that the notion that immigrants take jobs from U.S. workers has been refuted by economists for years. This conclusion also applies to the recent statement by Trump that the invasion by immigrants into the U.S. was mostly affecting the Black population – also a falsehood.

In 2023, foreign-born workers (including legal and undocumented immigrants), comprised 18.6 percent of the U.S. civilian labor force according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Foreign-born workers, especially the undocumented, are concentrated in such jobs that are considered essential to the economy, such as construction, food, farming, and services. Without immigrant labor, the cost of housing, food, and other essential services would rise significantly for American consumers. These jobs tend to pay lower wages, are often dangerous, and offer little to no insurance benefits. Some occupations like construction and farming result in injuries and exposure to toxic chemicals. It comes as no surprise that native-born American workers do not aggressively seek such occupations.

Immigrant Contributions to the U.S. Quality of Life

The contributions made by immigrants, both legal and undocumented, to the quality of life in the U.S. is not a common topic discussed in daily news reports.  Yet, their contributions have been documented in various areas as discussed below.

·       Economic Power:  In their report on Taxes and Spending Power,  The New American Economy reports key indicators of the extent to which immigrants support the U.S. economy.   In 2014, the spending power of the nation’s foreign born was estimated at $926.9 billion while their total tax contributions were $328.2 billion.   Hispanic immigrants provided a total spending power of $300.0 billion with federal tax contributions of $56.4 billion.  Immigrant spending power in Texas was $89.6 billion which represented 17.1 percent of total immigrant spending power. Texas also benefited by $29.1 billion of tax contributions by immigrants. Spending power provides immigrants considerable power to buy goods and services, which strengthens the U.S. economy, provides jobs to American workers and supports businesses.

·       Business Formation:    Immigrants are more likely to start businesses than the U.S. born.  The National Immigration Forum reports that the entrepreneurship rate for immigrants in 2015 was 11.5 percent while it was 9.5 percent for the U.S. born. Immigrant-owned businesses generated $65.5 billion in income in 2024, and 40.2 percent of immigrant firms were listed in the Fortune 500. Immigrant businesses also tend to revive neighborhoods, create jobs and spur further economic development.

·       Social Security and Medicare:  Experts have observed for many years that Illegal immigration has helped to keep Social Security and Medicare in a better financial position. This happens for one clear reason: although illegal immigrants are generally not eligible to collect Social Security and Medicare benefits, many still pay taxes into these two systems. As long as the illegal immigrants remain ineligible for benefits, these taxes function as free contributions to the trust funds.

·       Military Participation:  Since the nation’s founding, immigrants have defended the nation in every major conflict and proven to be an invaluable resource in conflicts requiring knowledge of different languages and cultures.  As of 2022, Military Times reported 731,000 foreign-born veterans in the U.S., representing 4.5 percent of the nation’s 16.2 million veterans.  Moreover, of the 3,400 Medals of Honor awarded since the Civil War, 22 percent have been awarded to immigrants.  

Conclusion

All things considered, immigrants – both legal and undocumented -- continue to be an enormous asset to the quality of life in the U.S., including the economic assets, labor supply for essential services, job creation, defense of our country in global conflicts, business formation, and scientific competitiveness.  By focusing on the relatively few although tragic murders of Americans committed by undocumented immigrants, Republicans have created a significant amount of hysteria that generalizes to both undocumented and legal immigrants to the detriment of voter support for Democratic candidates.  The isolated number of homicides committed by undocumented immigrants distract attention from a history of mass shootings by native-born Americans and evidence confirming a higher homicide rate by native-born Americans than undocumented immigrants. Moreover, the number of border crossings at the U.S.-Mexico border has decreased in the most recent fiscal year by 77 percent, pointing to great progress by the Biden administration in controlling the flow of undocumented immigrants.   Kamala Harris is indeed gaining momentum in the race for president, but the Harris campaign will continue to be threatened by persistent Republican messaging that focuses attention on American murders committed by undocumented immigrants.  Therefore, it is urgent that Democrats diffuse the Republican message about the danger of undocumented immigrants by reminding the public about the many immigrant contributions to the U.S. quality of life and their lower crime profile that reinforces their respect for U.S. laws.

Note:  I welcome your feedback. Please send your comments to edward@rinconassoc.com

Edward T. Rincón, Ph.D.