Mass Deportations: Time for a Re-fresh on Immigration Facts

  

It comes as no surprise that the Republicans for Trump are aggressively amplifying the campaign promise of deporting 15 million illegal immigrants if he is elected President – a strategy that resonates well with Republican voters since it blames illegal immigrants for such hot button issues as rising crime rates, taking jobs from American citizens, and generally destroying the U.S. economy.  Recent polls show that immigration remains a top concern among American voters, suggesting that voters are willing to accept Trump’s allegations about undocumented immigrants as factual.  When vice-presidential candidate JD Vance was asked in a recent interview just how this mass deportation would be implemented, his response was limited to stopping illegal entry at the border as a starting point but did not elaborate any details about the enormous undertaking of deporting millions of families residing in the U.S.  Past history points to three likely outcomes:  (a) setting up concentration camps for undocumented families, similar to the Japanese experience during World War II, (b) separation of families at the Texas border where many children were not returned to their families, or (c) deporting families to countries experiencing considerable violence. The hysteria related to mass deportations may be influencing perceptions of the Trump campaign.

Several recent polls suggest that the tide is turning in favor of Kamala Harris, an unexpected change that may influence the willingness of Trump supporters to embrace the idea of mass deportations. Consider the following:

·        Recent polls of registered voters revealed that Harris has a consistent edge over Trump ranging from 4- 5 percent. Indeed, compared to last July, Harris (60%) has almost doubled her support by Democratic voters compared to Biden (34%), while support for Trump by Republican voters changed by only 3 percent since last July.

·       Support for Harris has also increased among Independent voters whose support since last July has increased by 11 percent compared to just 4 percent for Trump.

·       Importantly, one recent poll of Latino voters by Siena College revealed strong support for Harris at 57 percent with support for Trump lagging far behind at 38 percent – a substantial improvement from previous polls of Latino voters.  The recent endorsement of Harris by the League of Latino United Latin American Citizens (LULAC) could be helpful as well.

·       Trump stated in a recent interview at the National Association of Black Journalists convention that “there’s an invasion of people coming into the country, and the Black population is affected most by that.” The degree to which Black voters believe this assertion is unknown, although it underscores the need for the Harris campaign to publicly challenge this statement.  

·       While national polls between 2016 to 2024 show that Black support for Trump had been steadily increasing, a recent poll of Black male registered voters by HIT Strategies in key states showed that 66 percent planned to vote for Harris while only 17 percent planned to vote for Trump.  Black voters supporting Trump felt that they were left behind by Biden on social issues and policy failures.

·       A more recent poll conducted by YouGov for CBS immediately after the Democratic Convention revealed decidedly higher support among Black voters for Harris (82%) compared to Trump (17%), and increased support among Hispanic voters for Harris (58%) versus Trump (41%). 

·       In an apparent sign of desperation, Trump’s campaign has even created a fake ad using AI showing that Taylor Swift supports Trump – which Taylor Swift quickly denied.

Interestingly, these trends point to a potential window of opportunity for Democrats to give an additional boost to the Harris campaign,  especially in states like Texas, California, New York and others that include large numbers of Latino and Black voters.  Indeed, the additional boost provided by Latino and Black voters could make a substantial difference in a close race.

The extra boost could happen by more clearly defining to voters that, instead of a threat to the U.S. quality of life, immigrants represent a valuable asset.  This extra boost could be accomplished by encouraging journalists to (a) to conduct more thorough fact checks about the falsehoods related to immigrants and (b) reminding voters of the significant contributions that immigrants have made to the U.S. quality of life.

Fact Checking the Falsehoods

News stories often allow the demonizing of immigrants to continue with minimal efforts devoted  to challenge the factual basis for these falsehoods. Coincidentally, Trump is now using border crossings in his rallies to falsely claim credit for the lowest border crossings before he left office. By assertively challenging these falsehoods, audiences may reject or re-consider embracing statements that demonize immigrants.  Following are three falsehoods that should receive immediate attention:

·       Allegation: Border crossings by illegal immigrants continue to increase and bring many criminals and drugs into the U.S.

Fact Check:  According to a recent report from the U.S. Custom and Border Protection (See Figure 1 below), border encounters decreased substantially over the past fiscal year from 240,932 in October 2023 to 104,116 in July 2024 – a 77 percent decrease.  Compared to FY 2023 (dark blue line), this trend reflects a substantial improvement for FY 2024. Credit for this decrease is given to the Biden administration executive actions to shut off access to the U.S. asylum system for migrants who enter illegally and the Mexican government efforts to tighten enforcement at the border.

Figure 1

Source:  U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) Encounters  by Fiscal Years 2023 and 2024 (YTD), Accessed on August 17, 2024.

·       Allegation:  Illegal immigrants into the U.S. include many criminals that are leading to rising crime rates.

Fact Check:  The Cato Institute is recognized for its expertise in the study of crime rates and immigration status.  In their 2018 analysis, the investigators concluded that the facts about immigrant crime rates have established over numerous studies that immigrants do not increase local crime rates, are less likely to cause crime and less likely to be incarcerated than their native-born. In their 2024 study of illegal immigration and homicide rates in Texas, investigators concluded that native-born Texans had a higher homicide rate that was 26 percent higher than illegal immigrants. Over the ten years from 2013 to 2022, the homicide conviction rate in Texas for illegal immigrants was 2.2 per 100,000, compared to 3.0 per 100,000 for native-born Americans and 1.2 per 100,000 legal immigrants.   The state of Texas is one of few states that uniquely keeps data on the immigration status of those arrested and convicted of crimes.  The Texas data may or may not generalize to other states.

·       Allegation:   Immigrants are taking jobs away from Americans.

Fact Check:  In a recent analysis in 2024 by Axios.com, the investigators reported that the notion that immigrants take jobs from U.S. workers has been refuted by economists for years. This conclusion also applies to the recent statement by Trump that the invasion by immigrants into the U.S. was mostly affecting the Black population – also a falsehood.

In 2023, foreign-born workers (including legal and undocumented immigrants), comprised 18.6 percent of the U.S. civilian labor force according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Foreign-born workers, especially the undocumented, are concentrated in such jobs that are considered essential to the economy, such as construction, food, farming, and services. Without immigrant labor, the cost of housing, food, and other essential services would rise significantly for American consumers. These jobs tend to pay lower wages, are often dangerous, and offer little to no insurance benefits. Some occupations like construction and farming result in injuries and exposure to toxic chemicals. It comes as no surprise that native-born American workers do not aggressively seek such occupations.

Immigrant Contributions to the U.S. Quality of Life

The contributions made by immigrants, both legal and undocumented, to the quality of life in the U.S. is not a common topic discussed in daily news reports.  Yet, their contributions have been documented in various areas as discussed below.

·       Economic Power:  In their report on Taxes and Spending Power,  The New American Economy reports key indicators of the extent to which immigrants support the U.S. economy.   In 2014, the spending power of the nation’s foreign born was estimated at $926.9 billion while their total tax contributions were $328.2 billion.   Hispanic immigrants provided a total spending power of $300.0 billion with federal tax contributions of $56.4 billion.  Immigrant spending power in Texas was $89.6 billion which represented 17.1 percent of total immigrant spending power. Texas also benefited by $29.1 billion of tax contributions by immigrants. Spending power provides immigrants considerable power to buy goods and services, which strengthens the U.S. economy, provides jobs to American workers and supports businesses.

·       Business Formation:    Immigrants are more likely to start businesses than the U.S. born.  The National Immigration Forum reports that the entrepreneurship rate for immigrants in 2015 was 11.5 percent while it was 9.5 percent for the U.S. born. Immigrant-owned businesses generated $65.5 billion in income in 2024, and 40.2 percent of immigrant firms were listed in the Fortune 500. Immigrant businesses also tend to revive neighborhoods, create jobs and spur further economic development.

·       Social Security and Medicare:  Experts have observed for many years that Illegal immigration has helped to keep Social Security and Medicare in a better financial position. This happens for one clear reason: although illegal immigrants are generally not eligible to collect Social Security and Medicare benefits, many still pay taxes into these two systems. As long as the illegal immigrants remain ineligible for benefits, these taxes function as free contributions to the trust funds.

·       Military Participation:  Since the nation’s founding, immigrants have defended the nation in every major conflict and proven to be an invaluable resource in conflicts requiring knowledge of different languages and cultures.  As of 2022, Military Times reported 731,000 foreign-born veterans in the U.S., representing 4.5 percent of the nation’s 16.2 million veterans.  Moreover, of the 3,400 Medals of Honor awarded since the Civil War, 22 percent have been awarded to immigrants.  

Conclusion

All things considered, immigrants – both legal and undocumented -- continue to be an enormous asset to the quality of life in the U.S., including the economic assets, labor supply for essential services, job creation, defense of our country in global conflicts, business formation, and scientific competitiveness.  By focusing on the relatively few although tragic murders of Americans committed by undocumented immigrants, Republicans have created a significant amount of hysteria that generalizes to both undocumented and legal immigrants to the detriment of voter support for Democratic candidates.  The isolated number of homicides committed by undocumented immigrants distract attention from a history of mass shootings by native-born Americans and evidence confirming a higher homicide rate by native-born Americans than undocumented immigrants. Moreover, the number of border crossings at the U.S.-Mexico border has decreased in the most recent fiscal year by 77 percent, pointing to great progress by the Biden administration in controlling the flow of undocumented immigrants.   Kamala Harris is indeed gaining momentum in the race for president, but the Harris campaign will continue to be threatened by persistent Republican messaging that focuses attention on American murders committed by undocumented immigrants.  Therefore, it is urgent that Democrats diffuse the Republican message about the danger of undocumented immigrants by reminding the public about the many immigrant contributions to the U.S. quality of life and their lower crime profile that reinforces their respect for U.S. laws.

Note:  I welcome your feedback. Please send your comments to edward@rinconassoc.com

Edward T. Rincón, Ph.D.

Final Post-Mortem on the Texas Latino Vote in the 2020 Election

 

In the several post-mortems of the 2020 election, one key question has remained unanswered:  Are Latino voters really embracing Donald Trump -- the same guy that referred to Latinos  as rapists and criminals, separated immigrant children from their families, accused of sexually assaulting several women, and referred to soldiers who lost their lives in battle as “suckers and losers”?  Because Trump was able to capture a higher percentage of Latino votes in Florida and South Texas compared to the 2016 election – various journalists and political pundits signaled an alarm bell suggesting that the future of the Democratic Party in Texas and Florida was in peril. 

It is curious that these limited Trump victories were portrayed as an  existential crisis for the Democratic Party, especially in light of CNN exit polls showing that U.S. Latinos  overwhelmingly supported Biden (66%) over Trump (32%) [1] -- an outcome, by the way, that matched Latino support for Hillary Clinton in 2016. The following statements illustrate the warnings that accompanied Trump’s victory in South Texas:

“That erosion in an area considered a Democratic stronghold – is a warning sign to the party as it tries to flip the state.  It also serves as a stark reminder that the Latino vote is diverse, especially in a state like Texas. And that Democrats cannot take it for granted.” [2]

“And Trump, instead of being a complete drag on Cornyn, turned in eye-popping numbers in heavily Hispanic counties in South Texas.” [3]

“…such Hispanics joined conservative voters in urban and suburban areas to ‘deliver the message that life, liberty, law and order, Texas values and our Second Amendment rights are their top priority.” [4]

Especially interesting were the various attempts to explain the motivations for Trump’s newly found success among Latino voters in South Texas and Florida. To explore these motivations, reporters from the New York Times,[5] CNN [6] and Dallas Morning News [7] captured a variety of subjective impressions, or theories, from interviews with local legislators, community leaders, academics, and Hispanic voters. Following are seven distinct “theories” expressed by these stakeholders as justification for supporting Donald Trump along with factual information that we believe casts some doubt on these theories.

·       The Jobs Theory:  Concerns were raised that abolishing ICE would hit home to many Latinos that worked in homeland security and as Border Patrol agents, and also threaten jobs in the oil and gas industry. However, a 2019 report on the South Texas economy issued by the Texas State Comptroller’s Office [8] reported the following employment picture: (a) the number of jobs in South Texas related to justice, public order and safety activities were 29,654, representing 2.9 percent of all jobs in the region, (b) the four military installations in the region provided 41,044 jobs which represented 6.5 percent of all military jobs in Texas, and (c) 4,794 jobs or 0.57 percent of all jobs in the region were concentrated in the oil and gas or petroleum and coal products manufacturing industries. Taken together, these three industries accounted for a relatively small percentage (9%) of all jobs in the South Texas region.  Moreover, the oil and gas industry in Texas had already lost 51,000 jobs due to steep declines in demand and prices resulting from the pandemic that occurred under the watch of the Texas Republican administration.[9]  The large presence of military jobs may suggest a heightened sense of loyalty to the current president; however, did this sense of loyalty change when Donald Trump publicly disparaged military leaders, heroes and soldiers?

·       The Shared Values Theory: Some Latinos believed that Republicans shared similar values with Hispanic culture related to family, life and religious freedom. Trump’s family values are questionable given the numerous allegations of sexual assaults on women. And while Hispanics may value pro-life or anti-abortion policies, it is noteworthy that, according to a CDC 2016 report on statewide abortions,[10] Hispanic women nevertheless reported 20,667 abortions or 38.7 percent of all abortions in Texas. Regarding religious freedom, some Hispanics felt that Trump “brings God to our country” and values religious freedom.  Yet Trump has publicly voiced his intolerance for people of different religions, such as Muslims.

·       Communications Theory: Trump was described as a plain speaker. Indeed, Trump has managed to use plainly worded insults and profanity towards women, Latinos, Blacks, the disabled, athletes and war heroes. Trump also uses plain language when addressing public policy issues because his knowledge is very limited.

·       The Macho Theory: To some Hispanics, especially males, Trump’s macho style was appealing. Machos tend to be authoritarian and domineering, lack emotional investment, and believe that women should be subservient to males.  Considerable research, however, regarding Hispanic family dynamics confirms that Hispanic women are the primary decision-makers in the typical Hispanic household. [11]

·       The Exploited Theory: Several Hispanics believed that Democrats took them for granted while Republicans gave them a voice.  This theory has merit since the Democratic campaign in Texas was missing in action until the final week of the 2020 election, while Republicans launched aggressive campaigns in Florida and South Texas to capture the Latino vote.  Nonetheless, the South Texas region remains one of the poorest regions in Texas and has progressed little economically under the Republican leadership over the past decade.

·       Law and Order Theory: Trump was believed to support the police, law and order, and against defunding the police. But Trump publicly praises white supremacists and encourages supporters to use violence against Biden supporters and current government officials such as Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer.  During the Trump administration, the number of hate crimes reported by the FBI have increased as well [12] [13]

·       Socialist Theory:  In Florida, Republicans utilized social media, outdoor parties and churches to promote the false message that Joe Biden was sympathetic to socialist dictators like Hugo Chavez and Fidel Castro – which Cubans and Venezuelans strongly disliked. Despite being false, however, the strategy was successful in creating stronger support for Trump in Florida.

 

While these theories are interesting, one should keep in mind that they are merely subjective impressions of Trump’s appeal that should not be generalized to Hispanics in South Texas, Florida or other communities.  Nonetheless, two disturbing attributes seem to emerge after reviewing these “theories:” a departure from reality and a distinct level of gullibility. That is, Latino Trumpers reveal a tendency to reject the facts related to an issue and seem easily deceived by the myths and distortions of the truth promoted by the Republican Party – attributes that are common among general Trump supporters. The gullibility attribute in Latinos stems from a general tendency to be more trusting of others than non-Latinos, although trust in government has clearly declined in recent years. Immigrants with limited English-speaking skills are more likely to trust Spanish-language media that they are better able to understand. Like the elderly, less acculturated Hispanics are less likely to be suspicious of the many scams and telemarketers that contact households on a daily basis and are often victimized according to annual fraud reports by the Federal Trade Commission.  During 2011, 13.4 percent of Hispanics were victims – almost 50 percent higher than the rate for non-Hispanic whites.  [14] Sadly, Spanish-language media is frequently used as the vehicle to victimize Hispanics, a practice that was successfully utilized by Republicans in Florida. Republican campaign strategists probably discovered these attributes early in the 2020 campaign and utilized it to their advantage in Florida, Texas and perhaps other communities. The ability to identify communities of Latinos that fit the Latino Trumper profile is a clear advantage for the Republic Party, especially in communities that the Democratic Party chooses to ignore.

Despite these two victories, there is reason to believe that Biden did not lose Texas due to weak Latino support from the South Texas region.  To understand this point, let’s first review some basic information about the voting population in South Texas.

Profile of South Texas

To understand the voting outcomes in South Texas during the 2020 election, it is helpful to first understand some of the demographic and economic characteristics that distinguish this region from the state’s population. We will summarize some of the information provided in a summary report of the South Texas region by the Texas State Comptroller’s Office.[15]  The South Texas region includes 28 counties as shown by the yellow highlighted area in the following map (see Figure 1 below):

The 2019 estimated population for South Texas was 2.4 million, representing 8.4 percent of the total population in Texas.  Between 2010 and 2019, the region has grown more slowly (7.4% rate) than the state’s growth rate (15.3%). The region’s population is predominately Hispanic (83%), one of the poorest in the state with a per capita income of $31,965 compared to $50,355 for Texas, and has an unemployment rate nearly twice as high (5.3%) as Texas (3.5%).  The percentage of persons with a bachelor’s degree or higher in 2018 was decidedly lower in South Texas 17.8%) than the state (29.3%).  

Table 1 below shows the number of registered voters in Texas compared to South Texas.  The number of registered voters in South Texas represented less than 1 percent (0.6%) of the total number of registered voters in Texas. Due to its small number of registered voters, the South Texas region does not appear particularly influential in the 2020 presidential election.  

Table 1: Registered Voters by Regions, 2020

Geographic Area	Number	Percent
Texas	16,955,519	100.0
South Texas	103,833	0.6
Other Regions	16,851,686	99.4

 

Table 2 below shows that 11,071,502 million Texans voted during the 2020 election – a voter turnout of 65.3 percent. Of these total voters, 52.9 percent supported Donald Trump while 47.1 percent supported Joe Biden.  Compared to the state, support for Trump was slightly higher (54.4%) in South Texas..

Table 2:  Texas Votes Cast for Presidential Candidates, by State

and South Texas Region, 2020

Geographic Area	Total	Trump	Biden
Texas	11,071,502	5,860,096	5,211,406
Percent	100.0	52.9	47.1
South Texas	53,807	29,1 70	24,537
Percent	100.0	54.4	45.6
Source: https://results.texas-election.com/county

Although it will be some time before we know the final votes cast in the 2020 election by race-ethnicity, a preliminary picture of the voting outcomes in Texas, Florida and Arizona were provided by CNN exit polls on election day. [16] An election exit poll is a poll of randomly selected voters that is taken immediately after they have exited a polling station. Exit polls can be affected by non-response bias, language bias, and clustering sampling methods that have been criticized for excluding Spanish-speaking voters who often vote for Democratic candidates.[17]  Table 3 below summarizes the results for Texas that included 4,768 voters.  Statewide Latino support for Joe Biden was higher (58%) than South Texas (45.6%) while statewide Latino support was lower for Donald Trump (41%) than South Texas (54.4%). Table 4 shows that in Florida the margins for Latino support were closer but still higher for Joe Biden (52%) than Donald Trump (47%).  Table 5 shows that in Arizona, Latinos strongly supported Joe Biden (63%) over Donald Trump (36%).

Table 3: Exit Poll Outcomes for Texas Presidential Candidates, 2020

(Percent)

Candidate	Race-Ethnicity of Voter
	White	Black	Latino	Asian
Donald Trump	66	9	41	30
Joe Biden	33	90	58	63
Source:  CNN Exit Polls, n = 4,768

 

Table 4: Exit Poll Outcomes for Florida Presidential Candidates, 2020

Candidate	Race-Ethnicity of Voter
	White	Black	Latino	Asian
Donald Trump	61	9	47	n/a
Joe Biden	38	89	52	n/a
Source:  CNN Exit Polls, n = 5,906 ( n/a = sample to small to project)

Table 5: Exit Poll Outcomes for Arizona Presidential Candidates, 2020

Candidate	Race-Ethnicity of Voter
	White	Black	Latino	Asian
Donald Trump	51	n/a	36	n/a
Joe Biden	47	n/a	63	n/a
Source:  CNN Exit Polls, n = 1,639 (n/a = sample too small to project)

To obtain a more detailed picture of candidate support at the county level for South Texas, Table 6 below presents the eight “heavily Hispanic” counties in South Texas that were included in the recent analysis by the Dallas Morning News [18] and used as the basis for sounding the alarm bell to Texas Democrats. Frio County was included in their analysis although it is part of West Texas.  The table reveals that support for Donald Trump ranged from 50 to 66 percent; the region produced a total of 8,975 college graduates who were 25 years or older; and there were high concentrations of Hispanics that ranged from 73 to 94 percent (median of 83%). The region showed only 103,833 registered voters.

 

Table 6: Heavily South Texas Hispanic Counties Carried by Trump

County	Total Registered Voters	No. Hispanic College Graduates 25yrs & Over	Percent Voted for Trump	Percent Voted for Biden	Pct. Hispanic Pop. 2018
Frio (West Tx)	8,984	500	53.7	46.3	78.8
Jim Wells	26,636	1,784	54.8	45.2	80.3
Kenedy	296	12	66.1	33.9	87.7
Kleberg	18,749	2,254	50.9	49.1	72.7
LaSalle	4,426	345	55.9	44.1	82.4
Reeves	7,558	431	61.7	38.3	75.1
Val Verde	28,927	3,021	55.0	45.0	81.8
Zapata	8,257	628	52.8	47.2	94.2
Total 8 Counties	103,833	8,975	54.4	45.6	83.0

           Source: https://results.texas-election.com/county / ACS 2018 5-Year Estimates. 

Previous polling of U.S. Latinos by the Pew Research Center revealed that Joe Biden’s support was distinctly higher for college graduates (69%) than non-college graduates (61%).[19]   The percentage of college graduates in the South Texas region was 17.8 percent, which was distinctly lower than the State of Texas (29.3%) and the U.S. (31.5%). [20] The South Texas region produces its share of college graduates, but many move away due to a poor economy, leaving only 8,975 graduates who resided in the region in 2018. The political potential of South Texas is limited by the small number of registered voters and college graduates.

In our opinion, the high percentage of Hispanics in the South Texas region (83.0%) is perhaps the key factor that attracts the attention of political candidates, journalists and pundits who tend to portray South Texas as the bell weather region for Texas Latino politics.  However, the focus on percentages can be misleading as an indicator of political influence when the population base and number of registered voters is small in comparison to other regions in Texas.   

Considerably greater political benefit was realized by the Biden campaign in larger urban areas in Texas with higher numbers of Hispanic registered voters and college graduates. Table 7 below page presents a similar profile for the top five Texas counties ranked by the total number of registered voters. It is readily apparent that these five counties included a much larger number of registered voters (7.1 million) and more Hispanic college graduates (449,751) despite having a more moderate concentration of the Hispanic population ranging from 29 to 60 percent (median = 41%). More importantly, support for Joe Biden was distinctly higher than the South Texas region, ranging from 50 to 73 percent. Interestingly, Travis County had one of the lowest percentages of the Hispanic population (33.9%), yet also revealed the highest level of support for Joe Biden (73.0%) – an affirmation of the political power leveraged by the college-educated community surrounding The University of Texas at Austin. Thus, a moderate concentration of Hispanics coupled with a substantial college-educated community appears to have substantially contributed to Joe Biden’s standing in Texas.

Table 7: Voter Profile of Top 5 Texas Counties Ranked by Number of Registered Voters

Top 5 Counties	Total Registered Voters	No. Hispanic College Graduates 25yrs & Over	Pct. of All Votes for Trump	Pct. of All Votes for Biden	Pct. Hispanic Pop. 2018
Harris	2,480,522	140,157	43.4	56.6	42.6
Dallas	1,398,469	54,553	33.9	66.1	39.9
Tarrant	1,212,524	68,466	50.0	50.0	28.5
Bexar	1,189,373	118,109	40.8	59.2	60.0
Travis	854,577	68,466	27.0	73.0	33.9
Total 5 Counties	7,135,465	449,751	40.2	59.8	41.0

 

The political muscle of communities with colleges and universities has been documented by other analysts as well. In past presidential elections, counties with flagship higher education institutions have increasingly swung toward Democrats.  According to a recent analysis of 2020 election results by The Chronicle of Higher Education, Trump carried 87 of the 136 counties in five states that flipped from Trump in 2016 to Biden in 2020 (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) that included four-year public or private nonprofit colleges with at least 100 students.  Biden carried only 49 of these counties according to unofficial results. How did Biden manage to flip these five states?  As explained by the reporter analyzing this outcome:

“But Biden’s counties were more populous:  They produced 12.7 million total votes, more than double the 5.4 million votes that came from the counties with colleges in them that Trump won.  Biden’s counties, while smaller in number, also had more colleges in them:  191 to 138 in Trump’s counties.”  (page 2) [21]

 

Thus, Trump’s advantage of capturing more counties was overcome by Biden’s advantage of capturing fewer counties with substantially more voters.

 

Did Weak Support in South Texas Cause Joe Biden to Lose Texas?

Some of the news stories suggested that Joe Biden had lost the Texas vote to Trump due to weak Latino support in South Texas compared to the support previously enjoyed by Hillary Clinton in 2016.  To address this issue, we conducted three hypothetical analyses to evaluate how the statewide voting outcomes for Donald Trump and Joe Biden would change under the following three scenarios:

·       Scenario 1: All of the votes cast by South Texas were removed from the total votes cast in Texas

·       Scenario 2: All of the South Texas votes were cast in favor of Donald Trump

·       Scenario 3: All of the South Texas votes were cast in favor of Joe Biden

Table 8 below presents the calculations used to evaluate these three scenarios.

Table 8: Hypothetical Voting Scenarios for Presidential Vote in Texas

Scenario	Trump	Biden	Total
Total Texas Votes Cast	5,860,096	5,211,406	11,071,502
Percent	52.9	47.1	100.0
South Texas Votes Cast	29,270	24,537	53,807
Percent	54.4	45.6	100.0
Scenario 1: Removing South Texas Votes	5,830,826	5,186,869	11,017,695
Adjusted Percent	52.9	47.1	100.0
Scenario 2: Adding All South Texas Votes to Trump	5,884,633	5,186,869	11,071,502
Adjusted Percent	53.2	46.8	100.0
Scenario 3: Adding All South Texas Votes to Biden	5,870,826	5,240,676	11,071,502
Adjusted Percent	52.7	47.3	100.0
Source: Results.texas-election.com/county; Rincon & Associates Analysis, 2020

Using the percentages for each scenario in Table 8, Figure 2 below clearly illustrates that under each scenario, Donald Trump still wins the Texas vote.  Thus, the votes from South Texas – regardless of whether they were totally removed or changed to votes for Trump or Biden – would not have changed the final Texas vote outcome for the presidential candidates.

How much confidence can we place on Hispanic polling results?

As final food for thought, it is helpful to weigh in the insights from The New York Times polling expert – Nate Cohn – who recently shared his post-mortem of the 2020 election in an op-ed entitled “What went wrong with polling?  Some early theories.”  Of particular relevance are his conclusions about the extent to which 2020 polling errors were influenced by Hispanic voters. The following comments are paraphrased from his narrative:

“What appeared in Miami-Dade was not just about Cuban-Americans.  Although Democrats flipped a Senate seat and are leading the presidential race in Arizona, Mr. Trump made huge gains in many Hispanic communities across the country…Many national surveys don’t release results for Hispanic voters because any given survey usually has only a small sample of this group....But if the Florida polls are any indication, it’s at least possible that national surveys missed Mr. Trump’s strength among Hispanic voters.  It seems entirely possible that the polls could have missed by 10 points among the group. If true, it would account for a modest but significant part – maybe one-fourth – of the national polling error.”  (p. 6) [22]

 

Mr. Cohn’s assessment may have merit regarding pollsters who only occasionally conduct polls of U.S. Hispanics and thus more likely to include common sources of bias in studies of this population segment. However, the results of polls of U.S. Hispanics conducted by more experienced pollsters of Hispanics – such as Latino Decisions and Pew Research Center --- often include larger samples and were more closely aligned with the results of exit polls conducted by CNN --- resulting perhaps in less polling error.  In our recent publication, “The Culture of Research,” [23]  we discuss the following common sources of bias that are observed in surveys of multicultural populations:

 

·       Identity Bias:  The use of vague, outdated or offensive race-ethnic labels that lead to over-counts or under-counts of respondents, or just missing data.

·       Coverage Bias: The use of sampling frames that exclude Hispanics, immigrants, the lower income and non-English speakers.

·       Sampling Bias:  Selecting samples of respondents that do not represent the population of interest, often by using non-random samples, small samples or sampling high density areas populated by Blacks, Hispanics or Asians. 

·       Mode Bias: Providing survey respondents only one mode (i.e., telephone, online or mail) to complete a survey which can exclude persons with vision, hearing or speaking impairments, lower literacy skills, or no Internet access.

·       Language Bias: Providing English-only surveys or poorly translated surveys to Hispanic and Asian immigrants lowers response rates and response quality since immigrants prefer native language surveys that are accurately translated.

·       Weighting Bias: Distorted statistical indicators can result from the failure to apply weights to correct survey sample imbalances or using weights that are outdated.

 

We agree with Mr. Cohen that greater polling error can occur in studies that include Hispanic populations, although we would add that such errors are more likely to occur in polls conducted by companies that do not have a strong track record for conducting studies of U.S. Hispanics.

 

Conclusion

Although the final 2020 election results with detailed demographic information will not be available for several months, there are some general conclusions that we can make given the information reviewed thus far:

 

·       Joe Biden did not lose Texas due to weak support from South Texas Latinos but rather the limited political resources in the region.

·       Latino voters were highly engaged to vote in the 2020 election as determined by pre-election polls.[24]

·       Despite the threat of COVID-19 and numerous voter suppression tactics by the Republican Party, Latinos turned out to vote in historic numbers.

·       Latinos were responsive to the message strategies of both campaigns, whether the message was accurate or fabricated. Latino Trumpers in Florida and Texas appeared more trusting and easier to mislead with false information.

·       Latinos revealed stronger support for Joe Biden than Donald Trump in Texas, Florida and Arizona, although stronger than expected Latino support was observed for Donald Trump.

·       Joe Biden revealed stronger support among Hispanic women, the college-educated, and those living in large urban areas.  Donald Trump showed stronger support from Hispanic males who were not college educated and lived in smaller urban and rural communities.

·       There is reason to believe that national pollsters experienced more errors when measuring the sentiments of Hispanic voters, although more confidence was proposed for pollsters with a stronger track record in polling the Hispanic population and using higher standards.

 

End Notes

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[1] CNN Exit Polls (2020, November 11). Accessed at: https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/national-results/0

[2]  Solis, D., Corchado, A., Morris, A., and Cobler, P. (2020, November 6). With the Latino vote up for grabs, how did Trump make inroads in South Texas?  The Dallas Morning News. Accessed at: https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2020/11/06/latino-vote-up-for-grabs-as-trump-makes-inroads-in-south-texas/

[3] Garrett, R.T. and Hacker, H.K. (2020, November 4). Dark alley no more:  This time, Texas Republicans were ready for the Democrats. Dallas Morning News. Accessed at  https://www.dallasnews.com/news/elections/2020/11/04/dark-alley-no-more-this-time-texas-republicans-were-ready-for-the-democrats/

[4] Ibid.

[5]  Medina, J.  (2020, October 19). The macho appeal of Donald Trump. New York Times. Accessed at https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/14/us/politics/trump-macho-appeal.html

[6] Chavez, N. (2020, November 9).  ‘There's no such thing as the Latino vote.' 2020 results reveal a complex electorate.  CNN, Accessed at: https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/09/politics/latino-voters-florida-texas-arizona/index.html

[7] Ibid, 2.  Solis, D., Corchado, A., Morris, A., and Cobler, P. (2020, November 6). With the Latino vote up for grabs, how did Trump make inroads in South Texas? 

[8] Comptroller.Texas.Gov. (2020, November 6). The South Texas Region 2020 Regional Report. Texas State Comptroller, Accessed at:   https://comptroller.texas.gov/economy/economic-data/regions/south.php

[9] Peacock, B.  (2020, May 11).  Renewable energy booming in Texas as oil and gas struggles. The Texan. Accessed at:  https://thetexan.news/renewable-energy-booming-in-texas-as-oil-and-gas-struggles/#:~:text=EnergyIssuesRenewable%20Energy%20Booming%20in%20Texas%20as%20Oil%20and%20Gas%20Struggles&text=Solar%20energy%20also%20reached%20its,is%20down%20over%2010%20percent.

[10]  Jatlaoui, T.C. Eckhaus, L., and Mandel, M.G.  (2019, November 29). Abortion Surveillance – United States 2016. MMWR Surveill Summ 2018; 68 (No. SS-11: 1-41. Accessed at: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/68/ss/ss6811a1.htm

[11] Korzenny and Korzenny, (   ).  Hispanic marketing.

[12]  Hancı, F. (2019, July 22).  Hate crimes increase in the US since Trump’s election. Politics Today, Accessed at        https://politicstoday.org/hate-crimes-increase-in-the-us-since-trumps-election/

[13] Brooks, B. (2019, November 12).  Victims of anti-Latino hate crimes soar in U.S.: FBI report.   Reuters. Accessed at https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hatecrimes-report/victims-of-anti-latino-hate-crimes-soar-in-u-s-fbi-report-idUSKBN1XM2OQ

[14]  Anderson, K.B. (2013, April). Consumer Fraud in the United States, 2011 The Third FTC Survey, Federal Trade Commission, Accessed at:   https://www.ftc.gov/sites/default/files/documents/reports/consumer-fraud-united-states-2011-third-ftc-survey/130419fraudsurvey_0.pdf

[15] Ibid 8, The South Texas Region 2020 Regional Report.

[16] Ibid 1, CNN Exit polls in Texas.

[17] Barreto, M. (2016, November 10). Lies, damn lies and exit polls. Latino Decisions. Retrieved from http://www.latinodecisions.com/blog/2016/11/10/lies-damn-lies-and-exit-polls/

[18] Ibid 3, Dark alley no more:  This time, Texas Republicans were ready for the Democrats.

[19] Krogstad, J.M. and Lopez, M.H. (2020, October 16).  Latino voters have growing confidence on Biden key issues, while confidence in Trump remains low. Pew Research Center, Accessed at:   https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/10/16/latino-voters-have-growing-confidence-in-biden-on-key-issues-while-confidence-in-trump-remains-low/

[20] Ibid 8, The South Texas Region 2020 Regional Report.

[21] June, A.W. (2020, November 15).  How higher ed helped flip 5 states in the 2020 election. The Chronicle of Higher Education.  Accessed at https://www.chronicle.com/article/how-higher-ed-helped-flip-5-states-in-the-2020-election

[22] Cohn, N.  (2020, November 10).  What went wrong with polling?  Some early theories.  The New York Times - Upshot. Accessed at https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/10/upshot/polls-what-went-wrong.html 

[23] Rincon, E.T.  (2020, August 20).  The Culture of Research.  The Writer’s Marq, Dallas, Texas.

[24] Pantoja, A. (2020, November 2).  Latino voters are ready to deliver a decisive victory to Biden and the Democrats. Latino Decisions. Accessed at: https://latinodecisions.com/blog/latino-voters-are-ready-to-deliver-a-decisive-victory-to-biden-and-the-democrats/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=New%20From%20Latino%20Decisions%20-%20title%202020-11-03%20103850&utm_content=New%20From%20Latino%20Decisions%20-%20title%202020-11-03%20103850+CID_48c4eeda4a81e8820521b83dcf471e94&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=Latino%20Voters%20Are%20Ready%20to%20Deliver%20a%20Decisive%20Victory%20to%20Biden%20and%20the%20Democrats%20Adrian%20Pantoja%20%20November%202%202020